|
2001-2002 ACC Preview |
|
Rob's full preview will be posted according to the following schedule (in inverse order of last season's ACC standings): 9/29
- 2000-2001 ACC Predictions vs. Reality ACC
2001-2002 Non-Conference Schedule Analysis Rating
Explanation: I've broken
down each team on the schedule into one of four categories: Marquee,
Tournament, Mid-Major and Tune-Up. A
Marquee team is one expected to be among the top 35 teams in the country
next year. Tournament teams are in the top 70, while Mid-Majors are
70-150. Anything over 150 is
in the Tune-Up category. Scoring
is done as follows: each Marquee team is given 3 points, Tournament teams
1 point, Mid-Major teams 0 points and Tune-Ups -0.5 points.
Additionally, a 1 point bonus is given for every true road game
(i.e., neutral-site tournament games are not considered road games).
Points are totalled and then divided by the number of games played,
and then ranked accordingly. For
teams playing in preseason tournaments, it will be assumed that they will
play the better team as the tournament goes on.
The exception is the preseason NIT; I will only assume 2 games for
that tournament since it's single-elimination.
Rankings have been determined from preseason rankings by the
Sporting News, recent NCAA play and my own judgment.
Teams that play strong teams on the road get rewarded; teams that
play a lot of weak squads get penalized.
Any score of 1.0 or greater indicates a very challenging schedule
that will rate highly in the RPI's. Anything
under 0.5 indicates a remarkably soft schedule. Strength
of Schedule Ranking: 1.
Duke 1.54 Clemson
(Rating=0.04): Marquee
Matchups: None Tournament
Matchups: South Carolina, 3rd round of Paradise Jam* Mid-Majors:
@Penn State, Winthrop, Coastal Carolina, 2nd round of Paradise Jam* Tune-Ups:
Morris Brown*, Wofford, Appalachian State, Elon, Charleston Southern, @Hartford,
Yale *
Other teams in Paradise Jam include Eastern Michigan (TU), LaSalle (MM),
Miami (T), UAB (MM) Comments:
Without a doubt, the most pathetic schedule in the league.
When South Carolina and Miami are the best teams on your schedule,
you know you have a creampuff
ledger. This schedule is
designed to get as many wins as
possible for Larry Shyatt. A
note on Penn State--while they did go to the
Sweet Sixteen last year, this year's club lost most of their good players.
Anything less than a 12-1 mark in nonconference play will almost certainly mean no postseason play for the Tigers.
Duke
(Rating=1.54): Marquee
Matchups: Maui Invitational Third Round*, Iowa, Temple, Kentucky, @Boston
College Tournament
Matchups: Seton Hall*, Maui Invitational Second Round*, @Michigan Mid-Majors:
San Diego State, @Davidson, St John's Tune-Ups:
Portland, NC A&T *
Other teams in the Maui Invitational include South Carolina (T)/Chaminade
(TU) as the second round matchup and Ball State (MM), Houston (TU), Kansas
(M) or UCLA (M) as final round matchup Comments:
A typically strong Duke schedule. Kentucky,
Iowa and Boston College may all be top ten teams.
Kansas or UCLA in the Maui finals would be another outstanding
matchup if it comes to pass. I included Davidson in mid-major rather than tune-up because
of their history of giving ACC teams a hard time; they were just a bit
beyond 150 but I gave them the benefit of the doubt for this reason.
I bumped St John's down to mid-major because of the general chaos
in the program, though I could easily see them becoming a good team.
San Diego State may be one of the nation's most surprising teams. Florida
State (Rating= 0.4): Marquee
Matchups: @Florida Tournament
Matchups: @South Florida Mid-Majors:
@Northwestern, Cleveland State Tune-Ups:
Savannah State, Elon, Western Carolina, American, Virginia Tech, Campbell Comments:
If it weren't for rivalry games against Florida and South Florida, this
would be a truly awful schedule. Savannah
State will be in their first year as a Division I program.
American is intriguing because of Patrick Doctor (one of the
nation's leading scorers) and Jeff Jones (the former UVa coach), but the
Eagles were just 7-20 last year and moved to the less-competitive Patriot
League. South Florida has
Altron Jackson, another top scorer; we'll see if Joiner and Richardson can
play some defense right away. Cleveland
State beat FSU last year. Georgia
Tech (Rating=0.58): Marquee
Matchups: Las Vegas Invitational Third Round, Syracuse Tournament
Matchups: Las Vegas Invitational Second Round Mid-Majors:
Wisconsin, @Georgia, @Davidson, Tulane, @St. Louis Tune-Ups:
Penn*, FAMU, Wofford, IUPUI, Cornell *
Other teams in the Las Vegas Invitational include Eastern Illinois (TU),
Hartford (TU), Illinois (M), Iowa State (T), St Louis (MM), Southern
Illinois (MM) Comments:
Paul Hewitt has constructed a much weaker schedule for his young Jackets
than last year, which makes sense. While
there aren't many top teams on the docket, there is a chance that they
might play Illinois, which would be a great test.
The mid-major lineup is a good one--Georgia is always a tough
rivalry game (even if Jim Harrick has a severely depleted roster) and it's
tough to win in St Louis. This
schedule won't help Tech get to the NCAA's but it might assure them an NIT
berth. Maryland
(Rating=1.17): Marquee
Matchups: Arizona*, Florida/Temple*, Illinois, UConn/George Washington
(MM)**, @Oklahoma Tournament
Matchups: None Mid-Majors:
Princeton**, Detroit, Monmouth Tune-Ups: American, Delaware State, William & Mary, Norfolk State *
Coaches Vs Cancer ** BB&T Classic Comments:
A typical Maryland schedule, heavy at the top and the bottom.
We'll see right away how good Arizona is, and the
Florida/Temple game will be a sizzler.
But Illinois is the true crown jewel of the schedule. Winning in
Norman will also be a tough task. There
was actually a bit of an upgrade in the lower end of the
schedule--Princeton is always a tough game no matter what, Monmouth won
their conference last year and Detroit returns four starters from an NIT
team. North
Carolina (Rating= 1.14): Marquee
Matchups: Indiana, @Kentucky, @UConn, St Joseph's/Georgia State (T)* Tournament
Matchups: None Mid-Majors:
Davidson, College of Charleston*, Texas A&M, Ohio Tune-Ups:
Hampton, Binghamton, NC A&T *
Tournament of Champions Comments:
The most interesting thing about UNC's schedule is that there are only 11
teams on it--Matt Doherty is clearly trying not to wear his team out.
Road games against Kentucky and UConn will provide the ultimate
test, and their placement--in December and mid-January respectively—will
give Doherty a good idea of how his team is developing.
If the Heels play St Joseph's, they'll get to test one of the best
backcourts in the country with Marvin O'Connor and Jameer Nelson.
The mid-major lineup looks very solid, though unlikely to produce
any upsets. All-in-all, a
challenging--but not overwhelming--schedule for a young team. North
Carolina State (Rating=0.58): Marquee
Matchups: @Syracuse, Temple Tournament
Matchups: @Ohio State, UMASS Mid-Majors:
BCA Invitational Second Round*, BCA Invitational Third Round* Tune-Ups:
Prairie View*, James Madison, The Citadel, Wofford, UNC-Asheville,
Charleston Southern, @Houston *
Other teams in the BCA Invitational include Rutgers (MM), ECU (TU), Northwestern
(MM), VCU (TU), San Jose State (TU), Farleigh Dickinson (TU) Comments:
If State doesn't win the BCA Invitational, you can consider their season
to officially be in crisis mode. The
lineup is remarkably unimpressive, and the whole thing is being held in
the ESA! To Herb Sendek's
credit, he is playing a few good teams, including road tilts with Syracuse
and Ohio State. The Pack need
to go at least 11-2 in non-conference games to have any postseason hopes
at all. Virginia
(Rating=0.79): Marquee
Matchups: Michigan State, @Georgetown, @Missouri Tournament
Matchups: @Auburn Mid-Majors:
Rutgers Tune-Ups:
Wagner, East Tennessee State, Howard, Virginia Tech, Charleston Southern,
Grambling State, VMI Comments:
A disappointingly soft schedule for a team that may hover around the top
ten all year. Sure, the
marquee games are all outstanding, but the tuneups are just embarrassing. And there's a strong possibility that I was being generous
with my assignments of Auburn and Rutgers.
Still, at least the Marquee games will be against teams in the top
20, and in Missouri's case, the top 10.
The Hoos just shouldn't be surprised to see their schedule hurt
them coming seeding time in the NCAA tournament. Wake
Forest (Rating=1.13): Marquee
Matchups: NIT second round*, @Kansas, Cincinnati Tournament
Matchups: Minnesota, Marquette, Richmond Mid-Majors:
UNC-Wilmington*, @St John's, @Navy Tune-Ups:
Elon, South Carolina State, St Francis (PA) *
Other teams in the NIT include Detroit (MM), Michigan State (M), Montana
State (MM), Fresno State (M), Wyoming (M), Southern Cal (M), Fordham (MM),
DePaul (MM), Maine (TU), Arkansas (T), Manhattan (TU), Syracuse (M),
Central Connecticut State (TU), Oklahoma (M)
Comments:
A very difficult schedule for Wake that could become even more
impressive if they make the NIT semifinals.
This may be one of the best NIT fields ever, with no less than five
marquee teams and few easy matchups.
Wake should beat UNC-W but it's no gimme.
Return games with Kansas and Cincy will also be big highlights.
Going to Allen Field House against the Jayhawks is always an
intimidating experience. While
the tournament teams are on the low end of the rankings, none are to be
overlooked. Skip Prosser will
have his work cut out for him in his first year. |
| Rob is a thirty two year old Duke grad who's been an ACC fan since he was nine years old, when a young Duke team was beaten in the finals by Kentucky. Since that time, he has been fascinated by the entire league and started writing volumes on it in rec.sport.basketball.college and other electronic forums in 1991. Recently, he has been writing ACC analyses for Jazzy J's About.com site and regularly contributes features on women's basketball for the Duke Basketball Report. |