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2001-2002 ACC Preview |
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Rob's full preview will be posted according to the following schedule (in inverse order of last season's ACC standings): 9/29
- 2000-2001 ACC Predictions vs. Reality 2001 Round-Up:
Pete Gillen
brought Virginia into the postseason after registering a near-miss in
2000. He did it despite
Majestic Mapp being out all year with a knee injury and having very little
size. UVa's only crippling
flaw was their inability to win on the road, and I attribute that to the
team's youth and lack of experience in big games.
That's one reason why 2001 was such an important year for
Virginia--they finally got some confidence and proved they could beat
elite teams. While this group answered a lot of questions about where the
program is headed, the end of the year proved that there are many
questions left to be resolved. Will
the team learn to win on the road? Can
the Cavs become a more productive team in the post?
Will their outside shooting improve?
Fortunately, they have the very savvy Gillen on their side and one
of the most athletic teams in the country.
Those positives will ensure another NCAA appearance and the team's
continuity of personnel may see them make a jump in the standings. The Hoos
dominated their non-conference foes in 2001, a key element in getting
their NCAA bid. After warming
up against the likes of LIU, Coastal Carolina and Virginia Tech, the Hoos
thrashed Purdue. The
Boilermakers had just beaten Arizona, so they were to be respected, but
the quick Virginia team forced them into 24 turnovers.
After beating up a couple of more patsies in VMI and Ohio U,
Virginia dominated #4 Tennessee from beginning to end.
The Hoos used balanced scoring, constant defensive pressure and perimeter
sharpshooting to whip the Vols in a neutral site. They moved into the top ten with some more easy wins, this
time against UMBC, Bucknell and Dartmouth. Then they went
on the road against Wake Forest, and that's when their season-long
difficulty of playing on the road first appeared.
The Deacs shot 58% and
shut down Virginia's potent offense.
The Cavs then struggled to beat a hot-shooting NC State team before
losing their first game at home to Georgia Tech.
Simply put, the Cavs were overconfident against a team that was 0-2
in the ACC and didn't play as hard as they should have.
Their overconfidence was permanently smashed when they went to
Durham and lost to Duke by 40 points.
The Cavs shot just 29% and were outrebounded for only the second
time all year. Virginia
rebounded with a routine home win over FSU and then easily handled an
up-and-coming Missouri team. They
gave UNC everything they wanted in Chapel Hill but couldn't stop Joseph
Forte. Still, they had
competed hard and were ready to play Maryland at home.
The Terps didn't have the fire to compete against a pumped-up Cavs
team and were blown out. The
Hoos then got revenge against Wake by beating them in Charlottesville.
Virginia was now 5-4 in the league and in good shape. The only
problem was that UVa had to go on the road again, where they had only
managed to beat Clemson thus far in league play.
So that meant that NC State, one of the worst offensive teams in
the league, dropped 90 points
on the Hoos and shot 57%. And
it also meant Virginia shooting an awful 39% against Georgia Tech in
another loss. Worst of all,
it left Virginia at 5-6 in
the league, fighting for their NCAA lives and having to play Duke--who had
only won 24 straight road games in ACC play.
The result was
a narrow 91-89 victory on a last-second Adam Hall putback. But that
doesn't tell the true tale of how the game went.
The Cavs shot 53% and owned Duke on the boards (+16). They forced some turnovers and concentrated on shutting down
Duke's driving to the basket and post play, especially in order to keep
them off the foul line. Overall
team balance on offense was the other key to breaking a 12-game losing
streak to Duke. Virginia went on the road to squeak one out against
cellar-dweller FSU, but came back to absolutely thrash UNC at home.
The Heels were ranked #2 at the time and were riding high on Joseph
Forte's heroics. After an
early blitz that gave the Heels a small lead, the Cavs responded with a
three point explosion that the Heels looked ill-prepared to deal with. On top of the
world, the Hoos easily defeated Clemson.
But the Cavs suffered an embarassing loss to Maryland, one nearly
as devastating as the earlier
Duke defeat. That seemed to
shake the team a bit, especially on offense.
Teams were starting to play Virginia for the three since no one
could hit it with any regularity with the exceptions of Keith Friel and
Roger Mason--and Friel was so one-dimensional that a smart team could keep
him locked up. The
poor shooting continued against Georgia Tech in the ACC tournament even as the Hoos outplayed them in some ways.
Team MVP: Roger Mason Jr Best Win: UNC Worst Loss: @ NC State
2002 Scouting Report: Who's Leaving: G Donald Hand, G Keith Friel, F Stephane DonDon Who's Coming Back: F Chris Williams, G Adam Hall, G Roger Mason Jr, C Travis Watson, C Jason Rogers, F JC Mathis, G Maurice Young Who's New: F Jason Clark, G Jermaine Harper, G Keith Jenifer, F Elton Brown More of the same. A
high-scoring team that loves to run with little inside presence. It will also be a team that has trouble from the three point
line, especially with Friel and Hand gone.
But the best thing about the team is that they'll have a pure point
guard running things, and as much experience as any team in the ACC.
This is a team that has grown up together, learning from some
brutal losses and toughening up as a result.
Their starting five will be as strong as any team in the
league, possessing a nice blend of skill and athleticism.
Still, many questions remain.
In addition to outside shooting and size, their inability to win on
the road has been a huge problem. Also,
it's uncertain what kind of depth they'll have, if any.
Last year's frosh had their moments but weren't called on too often
to produce, and this year's crop (with the exception of Elton Brown) may
not be ready to do much this year either.
But with the absence of Majestic Mapp, who will miss yet another
season due to injury, frosh Jenifer will have to step up right away. Beginning
with the post game, the Hoos feature Watson, who in many ways is the
team's best player. Despite a
relatively modest scoring average (12.3), Watson is the key component in
Virginia's halfcourt game and by far its best offensive rebounder (3.5 a
game). Not bad for a player
barely 6-8 who carries around a little too much weight.
It's his heft that allows him to bang with bigger players without
being moved around too much, and the fact that he retains quickness going
to the ball further shows that his weight
isn't a real impediment. Despite
very little frontcourt help, Watson had done a great job in the last 2
years, and with the potential of some of the freshmen post players, he may
well get the rests he needs. Moreover,
they'll help ameliorate Virginia's foul troubles inside, as Watson fouled
out 5 times last year. When
Watson went to the bench, it was often all over for Virginia because other
teams would go to their big man again and again without Watson to stop
them. About the only thing he
doesn't have is range on his jumper, which will eventually become a
necessity. The only other big
men who got any significant playing time were Dondon and Mathis, neither
of whom were true post players. Dondon
was a good athlete who contributed modest numbers, but Mathis showed
flashes of excellence. This
was especially true down the
stretch, when he was having very solid rebounding games.
What's amazing is that despite their lack of size, Virginia was the
best rebounding team in the league. Watson
was responsible for a lot of this, but players like Williams (6.7 rpg) and
Hall (5.5) used their quickness to get to loose balls. Where their lack of size really hurt them showed up in field
goal % on defense: they were the worst in the league. The Cavs hope
to change that with Brown, who is very much in the Watson/ Elton Brand
mold: an undersized but powerful big man who can score around the basket.
He is strictly a half-court guy, which will limit some of his
opportunities in Pete Gillen's run 'n gun offense, but will hold him in
good stead when things slow down. Also
new to the mix is Jason Clark, another 6-8 big man.
Clark is much more athletic than Watson or Brown, and his ability
to block shots may earn him some immediate playing time. The Cavs were one
of the worst shotblocking teams in the league last year, which comes as no
surprise when you consider their overall size.
On the bench is Jason Rogers, a 6-11 beanpole who has never gotten
any significant playing time, even when Virginia was desperate for size. Virginia's
situation at wing is a bit odd--the team's only true small forward, Chris
Williams, has been playing at power forward for most of his career.
Adam Hall, a natural 2-guard, has been at the wing.
Despite these irregularities, Williams has excelled at every
position he's been forced to play. While
his overall numbers have dipped a bit as Virginia's talent level has
improved, he's still the second-leading scorer (14.5). He's also one of
the few halfway decent three point shooters at 39%, though he usually
needed to be open and very set if he wanted his shot to go in. While not
an amazing athlete, he simply makes plays.
Like a Terence Morris, he's half-complementary player,
half-superstar. But down the
stretch, it was clear that he wasn't the team's star anymore--that fell to
Roger Mason Jr. Mason slowly
turned into a player capable of dominant performances against the best
competition. He led the team
in scoring in 6 of Virginia's last 8 games, and it was no accident that he
took the final shot against Gonzaga in the NCAA's.
He's the best three point shooter (44%) on a team that desperately
needs them, he's a smooth penetrator and an excellent foul shooter (88%).
He may be called on for another set of duties this year: point
guard. Majestic Mapp will not
be playing this year, so Mason will have to play a lot of minutes at the position, at least until
Jenifer is established. Mason
had 66 turnovers to 72 assists last year, so this is an area where he needs to improve.
But Mason will need to be ready to shoot a lot more and prepare for defenses designed to slow him down.
He'll miss Friel (a one-dimensional player whose one dimension,
shooting, made him valuable) and Hand in the backcourt.
But truthfully, Hand was mired in an awful shooting slump towards the end of the year and was hurting the
team at times. Hall will be called on once again to provide athleticism
(he's the team's best leaper) and defensive pressure. He was one of the team leaders in blocks (34) and
electrifying in transition. Mapp played
well as a freshman, especially on defense. His
presence was going to be crucial to the team's efforts.
He's not a great offensive player or shooter, but does enough to
get by. But his ball pressure
and penetration, along with his ability to see the floor, will make
replacing him difficult. His absence means that Jenifer will probably
start and at the very least play a lot of minutes right away. He's a very quick guard who can run the break,
but is not a good shooter. Jenifer's
ability to defend will be crucial in determining how much playing time he
gets; a player like Hall might have to pick up his slack defensively.
Another player to watch is Young, who didn't play
a lot last year but had moments of potential.
He'll be fighting with a frosh,
Harper, for minutes at the guard slot.
Harper is another quick, smallish
(6-3) player who likes to run. Virginia is a very easy team to analyze. Their strengths lie in their running game and full-court pressure. They play an exciting and smart brand of basketball. They force 17 turnovers a game but only turn it over 14 times a game. They hit the offensive boards harder than any team in the league. Where they falter at times is in the halfcourt game. The Hoos have trouble defending talented big men, especially when Watson isn't in the game. They don't block many shots or get as many steals as they'd like. Their outside shooting (apart from Mason) is spotty at best. Virginia will have a very experienced team and one that's won a bit and gained some confidence. Their chemistry should be excellent, which should improve their overall team defense and halfcourt offense. Mason was becoming the team's go-to player late last year and should be even better after his international hoops experience this summer. I think what will ultimately determine Virginia's fate this year will be the play of their freshmen and sophomores. They will be the team's bench, and if at least 2 of them don't step up to become players worthy of playing 20 minutes a game or more, Virginia will suffer a number of close losses. But if the bench goes 7 or 8 deep, they could challenge for the league title and a deep NCAA run. Of course, that would also require a better shooting percentage, improved post defense and the ability to win on the road. Ultimately, I think Virginia will be a solid third-place bet and a team that will reach the Sweet Sixteen. Projected Starting Lineup: C Watson
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