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2001-2002 ACC Preview |
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Rob's full preview will be posted according to the following schedule (in inverse order of last season's ACC standings): 9/29
- 2000-2001 ACC Predictions vs. Reality 2001 Round-Up:
With a solid recruiting class in place and one of the league's best
scorers, the Tigers were looking to take a step up in 2001.
Instead, it was just more of the same.
The Tigers could find no consistent offense beyond Will Solomon and
frosh find Tony Stockman. They
had very little inside presence and couldn't defend anyone, ranking last
in steals, blocked shots and points per game surrendered.
Despite all this, the Tigers actually did improve in 2001; the
problem, as I noted in the mid-season ACC report, is that everyone else in
the league got better as well. On
the rare occasions when the Tigers got hot from the perimeter, they could
cause some problems, but most good teams were able to lock in on Solomon
and reduce his effectiveness. As
the season wore on, he started to shoot worse and worse.
He only scored over 20 twice after February 1st, and it's no great
surprise to see why Clemson only won 2 of their last 10 games.
The season started with some promise, as the Tigers won 7 of their
first 9 games. Of course,
this included such powerhouses as Wofford and FAU, but also included a
1-point loss to then-top 10 Seton Hall and a solid win over top mid-major
program Winthrop. They went
into the ACC season with a 10-4 record and some optimism.
This was bolstered by a 12-point loss to Maryland where the Tigers
managed to score 92 points on one of the top contenders in the ACC, with
Solomon looking unstoppable. Then
reality descended upon Clemson in the form of a 115-74 beating at Duke.
Solomon was made invisible in that game, a demoralizing loss for
the program. Things perked up
with an upset win over NC State, but that was followed by 8 straight
league losses. Some were blowouts, like the annual ritual sacrifice at the
hands of the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill and an embarrassing 28 point home
loss to Virginia. Other losses were agonizingly close, like an OT loss to
awful Florida State and a 3 point loss to Georgia Tech, where Solomon
dropped a career-high 41 points on the Jackets. The worst loss may have been an 85-51 smacking by NC State,
where the Tigers faced a deficit of 50 points to a very bad team at one
point. Worse, after that
game, the Tigers had to face #1 UNC in Littlejohn.
I had noted in my midseason report on about.com that the Tigers
were giving teams some
trouble at times, and that Solomon was always a threat.
I also noted that they
might have one big upset in them. That
upset came against the Heels,
where coach Larry Shyatt used a mixture of zones and traps to
confuse them and force them to depend on their outside shooting.
Joseph Forte was only 6-19 from the floor and Solomon's 26 points
pushed the Tigers into the lead early in the second half.
Unfortunately for the Tigers, the next game proved to be a return
to normalcy, as they were waxed by Wake.
Indeed, they lost in double figures to the four opponents following
UNC, including a humiliating defeat to FSU in Littlejohn.
That game put the Tigers in the league's basement, but they would
have a rematch with the Seminoles in the ACC Tournament.
That game featured a balanced performance and a close win against a
team that had swept them.
It was their first ACC tournament win in 5 years and earned them
another crack at the Tar Heels. The
Tigers shot the lights out early on, but fatigue and UNC's inside
strength, coupled with a great shooting performance, sent the Tigers home.
There was a bit of a dust-up after the game between Shyatt and UNC
coach Matt Doherty, as Shyatt felt that UNC was running up the score at
the end. Doherty did it to
get back at Shyatt for calling a time-out at the end of their last game to
milk the win a bit more. There were a few positives for the Tigers this year. Solomon was great for most of the year, even if he had trouble working in a team concept at times. The frosh all showed promise, with Stockman looking like a potential star. Chris Hobbs overcame a reconstructed knee to post some very solid numbers, leading the team in rebounding at 6.3 rpg and shooting 56% from the field. Stockman shot 38% from three and led all frosh with 12 ppg. Clifton was athletic if erratic. Ray Henderson and Tomas Nagys could both rebound a bit. But the reality is that the Tigers couldn't compete with 6 ACC teams that went to the NCAA tournament and went 2-3 against the 2 that didn't make it. Things were especially ugly on the road, as the Tigers went 1-9. Shyatt was given one more year to turn things around, and he brought in a good class of recruits to do so. If he doesn't produce a winning season and NIT bid, he may well be gone. Team MVP: Will Solomon
Best Win: UNC
Worst Loss: Florida State ******************* 2002 Scouting Report: Who's Leaving: C Adam Allenspach, G
Dustin Braddick, G Pasha Bains, F Chucky Gilmore, G Will Solomon Who's Coming Back: G Jamar McKnight, F Ray
Henderson, G Walker Holt, F
Tomas Nagys, G Ed Scott, G/F Dwon Clifton, F Chris Hobbs, G Tony Stockman
Who's New: C Steve Allen, F Olu Babaloa, F Jemere Hendrix, F Sharrod Ford, G Chey Christie
Clemson lost unimpressive Allenspach, a 7-footer who rarely played
like one, and three other members of the team transferred. Bains was a
shooting specialist who shot 40% from three, Braddick an OK forward and
Gilmore a Barkley-type forward. None of these three transfers hurt the program much and I
wouldn't be the least bit surprised if these exits were strongly
encouraged by Shyatt.
More significant is the loss of Will Solomon, who declared for the
NBA draft. While few expected
him to be a first-round pick (though he has a
shot at making the Memphis roster) he wanted to move on from
Clemson. Losing
him means losing the one proven scorer on the team, the guy who
could get his own shot whenever he wanted, the one guy with star power on
his team. On the other hand,
he liked being a one-man gang and didn't do much to make his teammates
better. His departure makes
the Tigers even more painfully young, but if Shyatt can get them to play
together, they have a chance. That's because they are actually bringing in
a little bit of talent, with Christie having a skill set similar to
Solomon. Sometimes, when one
player does too much for a team, having him leave can actually cause his
teammates to step up. Whether
or not this will happen for the Tigers is the big question.
The major question surrounding Clemson is: can their young players
improve enough to become a factor in the ACC?
And will this even matter if the rest of the ACC continues to
improve? The only team that
lost enough senior talent to really affect their outlook for next year is
Georgia Tech, and I'm not sure the Tigers will be able to surpass them.
Will they be able to move ahead
of Florida State? NC State?
In order to get to the NIT, Clemson will need to win at least 16 games. With an easy preseason schedule, this means that the Tigers
will have to win at least 6 ACC games.
It'll be a tall order, but it is possible.
In order for it to happen, this is what needs to occur:
1) Ed Scott must able to deal with the best point guards in the
league; 2) Tony Stockman has to be an able #1 scorer; 3) Chris Hobbs needs
to cut down on fouls and diversify his offense a bit, while still
remaining a strong rebounder; 4) Sharrod Ford, Steve Allen or Olu Babaloa
have to be effective in the
post as frosh; 5) Chey Christie must provide instant offense; 6) Jemere
Hendrix needs to be able to penetrate.
In addition, if Ray Henderson
can improve his rebounding and defense, if Tomas Nagys can get
stronger and if Dwon Clifton can become more consistent, then the
Tigers have a shot.
A lot of "ifs", but the players surely know that they'll
be playing for their coach's
future.
The frontcourt is a question mark.
Hobbs overcame a knee injury to become a productive, physical
player. I expect his stats
(7.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg) to improve as he gets healthier.
Beyond that, things get sketchy.
Henderson's contributions have been modest in his career, and
though he will likely start, his status there is not written in stone.
The biggest threats will be rangy Nagys, a good shooter and
surprisingly tough player who led the team in blocks (albeit with an
anemic total of 17) and frosh Ford. The latter is a bit skinny but a true post player who will
likely get as much playing time as he can handle.
The other young big men seem unlikely to contribute much in their
first years. Allen is big but
not athletic, Babalola is athletic but inexperienced, and Hendrix is a
tweener who will more likely be a slasher than a post man.
The backcourt, even without Solomon, seems a lot more settled.
Christie looks ready to come in and start right away.
He's a big guard at 6-5, so he may well be the starting wing.
Tony Stockman shot OK (38% from three), was third on the team in
assists, and led the team in steals.
He's a streaky shooter who had some big games.
Ed Scott proved to be a good point guard, maintaining nearly a 2:1
assist to turnover ratio. He's
not a great defender or shooter (21% from three), however.
Unfortunately, beyond those three players lay more question marks. Clifton and McKnight have shown very little so far, though
they'll have every opportunity to get some backup minutes.
What I think will happen is that Clemson will develop into a
dangerous offensive club. Christie
will surprise a lot of people and Stockman will
deliver as well. What I don't see improving much is the defense.
They don't have the
size to deal with any of the league's better big men or the quickness to
deal with the ACC's better point guards. Their offensive flow is not the best either, as they were one
of the league's worst teams in assists and turnover margin.
Eliminating such mistakes would allow them to beat the league's
bottom feeders, and a more potent offense would give them a
shot in Littlejohn against the league's powers.
The freshmen are the wild card.
An enthusiastic and effective class that improves scoring,
rebounding and defense will get them a winning record.
An average performance will put them in the basement again.
I think they'll get enough to move into seventh place. |
