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2001-2002 ACC Preview |
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Rob's full preview will be posted according to the following schedule (in inverse order of last season's ACC standings): 9/29
- 2000-2001 ACC Predictions vs. Reality 2001 Round-Up:
What an incredible story for the Terps!
2001 was a season full of remarkable ups and downs for Maryland,
culminating in their first-ever Final Four appearance.
While the spectre of their three losses to Duke hangs over the
heads of their fans, this only serves to detract from the fact that
Maryland at last has truly arrived on the national scene.
No more third round chokes. No
more teams that can't play in the halfcourt.
No more Hipps and Profits and Francises breaking down when the team
really needed them. Gary Williams carefully assembled a team with very few
blue-chip credentials and molded them into a tough group of winners who
can play any style. Their
destruction of PAC-10 bully Stanford was simply beautiful to watch.
The season began with very high expectations for the Terps.
This immediately should have caused some concern, because Williams
has not done a very good job at getting the most out of his teams when
they are well-regarded. Still,
with all of Maryland's important players returning, things looked good.
Those expectations were quickly dashed by three straight losses at
the beginning of the year. The
first was to a great Illinois team that savaged them on the boards, but
they were also beaten by an overachieving Dayton squad as well.
The Terps looked listless in that game, the third of the Maui
Classic, and brought back some unpleasant memories of past squads who
didn't put forth maximum effort. They
then dropped an OT contest to Wisconsin, somehow giving up 78 points to a
team that struggles to score. A
potential dream season was falling apart before it could barely begin.
What the team needed were some confidence builders, and that's what
they got throughout the month of December.
They crushed a series of patsies like UMBC, Norfolk State, Chicago
State, and UMES. They also
whipped a bad Michigan team and squeaked by a mediocre George Washington
club in their DC-area tourney, and pulled out a close victory against a
bad Penn squad. All told, they ran off ten in a row before entering ACC
play, and started off well in that regard.
They outshot a hot Clemson team and then outrebounded Georgia Tech
to pick up a couple of double-digit victories.
Then came UNC in College Park.
The Heels ran up a big lead, allowed the Terps to come within 3,
and then held on for an important win.
But the Terps bounced back with easy wins over FSU, top-10 Wake,
and NC State. The win against
Wake was especially sweet because it was their first against a ranked team
the entire year. Maryland's
best players all performed well, with Juan Dixon scoring 30, Terence
Morris getting 20, and Lonny Baxter
getting 18 and 15 boards. On
a roll, they next hosted their nemesis Duke in College Park--where Duke
hadn't lost since 1997. The
first few minutes of the game were pretty even, and then Maryland went on
a huge run, overwhelming Duke with their transition game and shutting down
their perimeter shooters. They
had a 12-point lead with a couple of minutes left, but point guard Steve
Blake fouled out. Blake had
kept Duke's Jason Williams under control for most of the night, but more
importantly, he kept turnovers to a minimum.
With him out, Duke turned up the pressure and amazingly tied the
game up and won in overtime.
The effects of that game were devastating.
A stunned Terp squad was no match for Virginia in Charlottesville,
getting outplayed and blown out. The Terps managed to beat Clemson, but
then dropped 3 more league games in a row.
First came a sloppy loss to plucky Georgia Tech.
Then came a dismantling at the hands of UNC, a game in which the
Heels shot nearly 60%. But the worst was yet to come: a loss to league
doormat FSU at home, wherein the huge Maryland team was somehow
outrebounded by the Seminoles. The
supposedly loyal Terp fans booed the team rather vociferously after that
game, much to Gary Williams' chagrin.
The Terps had just 3 days to recover and play a tough Wake team in
a rematch.
Amazingly, the team circled the wagons and pounded Wake.
Baxter was unstoppable as the Terps won the rebounding battle by
15. A routine win against NC
State was followed by an important interconference showdown against
Oklahoma, another ranked team. Dixon
was the high scorer in this inspiring win that was crucial to their
postseason hopes. That
boosted their confidence for their next opponent: Duke.
The Terps had beaten the Devils in Durham the previous year, and
did it again in 2001. It was
a very tight game throughout, but the Terps took
control when Duke center Carlos Boozer went down with an injury.
With him out, they
jammed Duke's shooters and forced a number of bad shots.
Dixon dropped 28 on
the Devils, mostly on effortless drives that cleverly used
screens. The Terps
used offensive balance to keep Duke flustered and won by double
figures--the first and only team that would manage that feat in 2001.
Now the hottest team in the league, Maryland got some payback by
obliterating Virginia in the
regular season finale.
As the #3 seed in the ACC tournament, Maryland drew a dangerous
Wake Forest squad. They did
lack Craig Dawson, limiting their already somewhat punchless offense, and
the Terps had no trouble throttling them.
This led to round 3 against Duke, and the third game was an
absolute classic. The Terps
took a big early lead, saw Duke climb back in it, and had a slim halftime
advantage. Duke used a big
three point barrage to take control and had the upper hand throughout most
of the second half. But a
Danny Miller shot put the Terps up before Mike Dunleavy countered.
With seconds left, the ever-gutty Blake stuck a three that tied it
up. Duke zipped down and
scored on a tip-in, and Dixon got one last look...that was just a bit to
the left. Still, Maryland had
impressed everyone and would get a good seed in the tournament.
That turned out to be a #3 seed in the West region.
Playing out in Boise, they encountered a number of their neighbors,
including George Mason and Georgetown.
The Terps reverted to early-season form in the first game against
Mason and just barely escaped. Morris
looked terrible, missing 2 crucial free throws at the end that gave Mason
a chance at a winning shot. The Terps redeemed themselves against Georgia
State, coached by Lefty Driesell. Much was made of his ties to Maryland,
but that all proved to be a non-issue as Baxter put together the first of
three consecutive masterpieces.
The Terps were in the Sweet Sixteen once again, but had never
advanced further under Williams. The
offensively impaired Hoyas proved to be a good antidote, and their rough
play got the Terps ready for the regional finals against Stanford.
The Cardinal had been #1 for much of the year and were playing
well. But Baxter absolutely
tore up the Cardinal's vaunted frontline while their shooters hit 9 of 13
from three. Stanford looked
slow and clumsy while their shooters were being jammed well before they
got to the three point line. Amazingly,
Maryland was in the Final Four for the first time in their proud history.
Their opponent, unbelievably, was Duke.
Despite the Devils winning 2 of 3, many predicted a Terp victory.
The Terps actually had slightly better stats in their head-to-head
matchups and were one of the very few teams to push Duke around.
In the first half, these predictions seemed prescient as Maryland
did whatever it wanted pretty much from the start.
They were hitting threes, forcing turnovers, and making Duke look
anemic on the offensive end. The
Devils did not panic, and slowly got back into the game.
They cut Maryland's 22 point lead to around 10 at the half, slowly
crept back into it, and watched Maryland make a number of mistakes down
the stretch. Duke completed a
33 point turnaround as the Terps were unable to handle Carlos Boozer
inside. Team MVP: Tie: Juan Dixon and Lonny Baxter Best Win: Stanford Worst Loss: Florida State
2002 Scouting Report: Who's Leaving: F Terence Morris, C Mike Mardesich, F LaRon Cephas, G/F Danny Miller Who's Coming Back: G Juan Dixon, C Lonny Baxter, F Byron Mouton, F Tahj Holden, G Steve Blake, G Drew Nicholas, G Calvin McCall, F Chris Wilcox Who's New: C Ryan Randle (JuCo transfer), C Matt Slaninka (redshirt), G Andre Collins, F Mike Grinnon Though the team will miss
the defense, rebounding and scoring of Morris, they have the size and
athletes to make up for his absence.
With Dixon and Baxter as leaders of the team, I think we'll see
fewer big leads given up and smarter play down the stretch. Maryland will again be one of the deepest and most
experienced teams in the ACC and will be a major threat to return to the
Final Four. The troika of
Dixon, Baxter and Blake give
Maryland the sort of mental toughness that is crucial to winning close
games. And Dixon is the
toughest of all, a relentless warrior who is lethal from mid-range and is
the master of cutting and using screens.
Maryland is unlikely to get a lot of help from their new recruits,
but that isn't really a big deal for this year.
Gary Williams is well-known for crafting silk purses out of prep
sow's ears, although the accolades of this class are less impressive than
most. But what will be more
interesting to observe this year is the progress of Holden and Wilcox.
Holden will almost certainly start.
While he only played twelve minutes a game last year because of
Maryland's frontcourt depth, he showed a lot of potential. He's a dynamic
player who can rebound and hit threes (48%!).
He sparkled in the Final Four, displaying his athleticism in
addition to everything else. He's
not a bruiser in the post, but he can hold his own.
Wilcox is stronger and an even better athlete who is not quite as
skilled overall. Still, Wilcox shot extremely well and blocked a lot of
shots (18) in limited playing time. He'll
be a versatile big man who can come in at any
frontcourt position.
The frontcourt is anchored by Baxter, who is one of the best
rebonders in the league (7.9), especially at the offensive end.
Baxter is a bit undersized (6-9) to play center and has sometimes
been ineffective against huge, strong players.
But his fighting spirit and surprising agility have made him very
tough to stop on the blocks...just ask Stanford.
Baxter could stand to add a little more definition to his physique
and improve his ballhandling and shooting skills, but there is no tougher
post player in the league. He
may get a little help from Randle, a big, strong player who may not be
athletic enough to make it in the league.
Also eligible is 7-4 Slaninka, who is large but not especially
agile. It's difficult to see
him fitting in with the current group of players.
Maryland's depth took a hit when Danny Miller decided to transfer,
but it was clear that Mouton was the man for the job.
He put up solid numbers across the board and was a great third or
fourth option. He shot over
40% from three and over 50% overall as he proved to be an athletic
finisher who could get his own shot and play good defense.
Mouton's numbers put the lie to the notion heard last year that
Maryland wasn't a good perimeter
shooting team. The two
biggest liabilities in that area were Morris and Miller, both sub-30%
three point shooters. But
Dixon, Nicholas, Mouton and Holden all shot above 40% and Blake was right
there at 39.9%. Maryland preferred to work inside and off the dribble, but
they were quite proficient from the bonus stripe.
The Terps will sub Wilcox and Holden a lot
at the three, because Mouton doesn't have much help.
Frosh Grinnon isn't expected
to do anything this year for Maryland, if ever.
They say that guard play is the ultimate catalyst for success, and
Maryland's starting backcourt looks to be one of the steadiest and
toughest in the nation. Blake
is a true leader who defends well, distributes well both in transition and
in halfcourt sets, and who can hit clutch shots. Dixon is the team's true go-to guy, capable of getting his
own shot at any time. His only weakness is his size; he can on occasion be
shut down by larger guards. But
he's so quick and tireless that very few players can keep up with him for
an entire game. His biggest
strength is his use of the mid-range game.
There's only one reliable backup at this point for the backcourt,
and that's Drew Nicholas. He's
a solid but unremarkable player who is adequate in terms of handling the
ball but is a reliable shooter. The Terps are hoping that frosh Andre
Collins, despite his diminutive stature (5-9) will be able to help right
away at point. His biggest
positive is his quickness but he's also known to be a good ballhandler.
Another player who might see some time is former football player
Calvin McCall. He quit the
football team to go to the basketball team full time, and I suspect he'll
be rewarded with some playing time at the wing.
While Maryland will be more experienced and more confident next
year because of their Final Four, their margin of error will be a bit
narrower. They won't have as long a bench to lean on and they'll have to
replace Morris' shotblocking and rebounding. While their personnel losses
probably won't affect them much offensively, it might eventually
show on defense, especially if they start to encounter foul trouble.
To get back to the Final Four, the Terps will need a significant
contribution from the bench. That could be a committee of players each stepping up a
little or just one or two players developing to the point where they're at
starter-level, but this will be the story to keep track of at Maryland
this year. Maryland's downfall has often been related to the mental aspects of the game. Gary Williams likes to sell his team on being the underdog and not being respected by the rest of the conference and the country, but it's going to be difficult peddling that line when the Terps are ranked in the top ten. The Terps will be looking to their coach and to their senior leaders for guidance, and both will have to be strong at all times. Maryland has an excellent chance at making it back to the Final Four and winning the league, but they'll have to be tough and smart in every game. Projected Starting Lineup: C Baxter
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