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2001-2002 ACC Preview |
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Rob's full preview will be posted according to the following schedule (in inverse order of last season's ACC standings): 9/29
- 2000-2001 ACC Predictions vs. Reality
2001 Round-Up:
The Seminoles lost 8 of their first 9 ACC
games, and most of those were in double figures.
But after a narrow loss to Wake Forest, FSU stunned Maryland in
College Park, with a near triple-double from Delvon Arrington.
They followed up that performance by nearly upsetting Virginia in
Tallahassee, but then proceeded to get blitzed by UNC and NC State.
Still, FSU showed more promise by beating Georgia Tech and Clemson
by double figures in back-to-back games.
Although they concluded the season with a narrow loss to Clemson in
the ACC tournament, they picked up a third of their wins in the last few
weeks of the season. Better
still, they would only lose one player from the team.
Still, how does an ACC team only manage to win 9 games overall?
The
answers are simple, though painful: very
little talent, very little size, and not enough skilled players.
The Seminoles essentially had two guys who could have gotten
playing time at other ACC schools: Arrington and strong frosh recruit
Michael Joiner. Though
somewhat raw, Joiner actually has a lot of tools to work with, including
athleticism and strength. Joiner
improbably led the team in rebounding with 6 per game, and was especially
effective on the offensive boards. He's
still an improved jump shot away from being a significant offensive force,
but his quality of play is a step in the right direction.
Arrington has steadily improved to become a quality point guard.
He led the team in scoring, assists, free throws made, steals and
minutes. A third player, Monte Cummings, came in as a JuCo transfer and
made a significant impact in terms of scoring and ballhandling, although
his long-range shooting was nothing to write home about.
Beyond
those three guys, you started to delve into the land of roleplayers and
flawed games. Senior Crawford was good for long range bombs and not much
else. Centers Anderson and
Mathews could block shots, but couldn't score or rebound.
Frosh Lowery and Wilson had their moments but frequently looked
overwhelmed by the rigors of playing in the ACC.
Antwuan Dixon made some contributions but should be coming off the
bench. The team was hurt by
Rodney Tucker's run-in with the law that had him booted from the team for
the season--he was perhaps the best athlete in this group.
That
of course leaves the most intriguing player on the team, 6-10, 350+ pound
behemoth Nigel Dixon. "Big
Jelly" averaged 7 points and 5 rebounds per game, not awful numbers
for a sophomore. But there's
the sense that he could be doing so much more if he could drop some weight
and cut down on his fouls. The two are related.
He only plays about 15 minutes a game due to his stamina
and foul problems, and often makes silly fouls when he's tired.
Also, his weight affects his body control, so that he's easier to
pump fake into silly fouls. Despite all that, he's remarkably agile for his size and has
a nice touch around the basket. One
thing he needs to learn is how to post up his man without lowering his
shoulder--his offensive fouls put him on the bench more than other
varieties.
Coming
into the season, I knew it would be a long one since FSU lost their two
best players from last year as well as several solid role players--and
last year's squad wasn't exactly contending for any championships.
This showed early in the year as the 'noles lost to Furman, South
Florida and Cleveland State and had difficulties in putting away UNC-Asheville. It didn't help that their home court "advantage"
was pathetic, barely drawing 4000 fans per game.
It also didn't help that their nonconference schedule was actually
fairly rigorous, with the annual battle against Florida and games against
DePaul, Ohio State, Minnesota, Vanderbilt and Rhode Island. FSU was last
in the ACC in 7 different categories and next-to-last in 6 others--most of
them having to do with offense. They
averaged below 70 ppg for the season and of the four times they managed to
go over the 80 point mark, three of them were in overtime.
All
of that said, the Seminoles left 2001 with a glimmer of hope.
Beating NCAA teams Maryland and Georgia Tech was a major confidence
boost for the program, who somehow managed to win 4 ACC games.
Talent-wise, they probably shouldn't have won any, but the
discipline of Robinson and his players and their hard work made them a
tougher draw in the last month. That
didn't help ease the pain of this year, but it may well provide a solid
foundation for 2002.
Team
MVP: Delvon Arrington
Best
Win: @ Maryland Worst Loss: Furman
2002 Scouting Report: Who's Leaving: G Adrian
Crawford, F Rodney Tucker
Who's Coming Back: G Delvon Arrington, C David
Anderson, G Monte Cummings, F Antwuan Dixon, C Nigel Dixon, C Mike
Mathews, F Michael Joiner, G
Ryan Lowery, G Andrew Wilson
Who's New: C Trevor Harvey (JuCo), G JD Bracy
(academic redshirt), G Adrian
McPherson, F Anthony Richardson, C Adam Waleskowski
The
good news for the 'noles is that they have nearly everyone coming back
from last year's team. The
bad news is that those players only went 9-21. The better news is that
this year's recruiting class might actually provide FSU with help at a
number of positions. First and foremost, Arrington returns as a fifth-year senior.
As a partial qualifier, he had to sit out a year but was rewarded
with an extra year of eligibility after he proved himself in the
classroom. His experience and
skill level will be crucial for FSU, especially since the ACC has long
been dominated by point guards. Secondly,
while the returning players haven't experienced much success, there is at
least a sense of continuity on the team. Simply by playing together longer, the team will improve.
Third, Richardson & McPherson bring a serious talent upgrade to
FSU, with Richardson making the McDonald's All-America team.
Richardson
finally becoming eligible was the best news Robinson could have received
coming into this season. While
a bit thin and not the greatest shooter in the world, Richardson can
really sky and run the floor. Starting him alongside Joiner will make for
an exciting frontcourt that could actually lead to a few FSU fast breaks
for a change. Richardson fell
short of a qualifying SAT score, but the NCAA clearinghouse is letting him
play because of learning disabilities--the same way Zach Randolph got to
play for Michigan State last year. McPherson
is no slouch as an athlete either, though he's coming to FSU as a
quarterback. But he's a top
150 recruit who can drive and shoot, and should easily take the place of
Crawford. Furthermore, last year's partial qualifier Bracy is a quality
player who will also provide
some desperately-needed offense for this team.
There's a real sense that help is on the way, though depending on
frosh for anything is risky business.
The
biggest problem remaining is exactly that: bigness.
Mathews and Anderson are simply not the answer, and Dixon may never
be able to play more than 15
minutes a game. The new
recruit, Waleskowski, is a question mark.
Lightly regarded by many, he was a pleasant surprise at the Capital
Classic with his defense and
rebounding. He'll certainly
have the opportunity for minutes because the competition isn't exactly
overwhelming. Robinson obviously took a hard look at his big-man situation, because
he also signed JuCo big man
Harvey. He's known as a
shot-blocker who can also score a bit.
He'll certainly have his chances, and his experience might
give him an edge. At least Robinson has some options now, although there's
no guarantee that they will
be valid options.
FSU
is going to have a hard time scoring down low and almost as hard a time
defending. If I were Steve
Robinson, I might abandon any pretense of having
an inside game and go to small-ball, using 4 guards and a center.
Use your quickness to get more breaks and attack the basket.
Robinson tends to favor more patterned, predictable offenses, so I doubt
we'll see him break form next
year. But until he gets a
competent big man, he's going to face the same struggles every year.
The
returning backcourt players certainly outplayed their frontcourt teammates,
but they still had problems with one crucial thing: shooting. The only
player who shot over break-even (33%) from three was Antwuan Dixon, and he
only managed 36%. Arrington
shot only 32%, but he led the team in scoring (11.5), steals (1.9) and
assists (4.8), and was even fourth in rebounding.
JuCo Cummings was a pleasant surprise as one of the only guys who
could slash and get to the foul line.
Lesser talents like Lowery and Wilson
played much more than they had any right to with a modest impact, but such
is the state of the talent at FSU. Having
Bracy and McPherson around will reduce their minutes greatly this year.
Joiner
and Antwuan Dixon are a pair of very solid and athletic wings who
shockingly led the club in rebounding last year (6.0 and 5.8 rpg, respectively).
Joiner can become a very good player if he improves his shooting,
because he really has the whole package otherwise.
Richardson is of course more athletic than anyone on the squad and
will be needed to defend as well as run the floor.
The
returning frontcourt players are just too depressing to contemplate.
Mathews led the team in blocks but fouled out in 25% of the team's games.
Anderson is a less accomplished version of Mathews.
Dixon oozes talent and touch but his weight problem and
corresponding difficulties with conditioning limited him to 15 minutes a
game. He's always good for
one or two big games a year but isn't a guy whom you can depend on.
I think Robinson knows that the fortunes of his club rest with his
guards and wings. Speaking of which, Rodney Tucker transferred to a junior
college while his trial for sexual assault is in the works. He may transfer back if he is found not guilty.
The
2002 Seminoles will be a better and more exciting team offensively.
They'll be quicker and may even go after the ball more.
If they can cut down on mistakes and force the tempo a bit, they'll
be more competitive in every game. I
still don't forsee a winning season for FSU, but they can improve by at
least 3 or 4 games. The games between FSU, Clemson and Georgia Tech will be very
fierce indeed. The
contribution of the frosh will make or break their season.
If they're all they're cracked up to be, FSU might even make a run
at 6th place. If they
struggle, it'll be the basement once again.
Still, if Robinson ever got the pieces he needed, FSU could be a
winning program. We'll see if
he has enough time to do that.
Projected Starting Lineup:
C N. Dixon
F Joiner
F Richardson
G Bracy |
