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2001-2002 ACC Preview |
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Rob's full preview will be posted according to the following schedule (in inverse order of last season's ACC standings): 9/29
- 2000-2001 ACC Predictions vs. Reality 2001 Round-Up:
Where to begin?
What didn't this team accomplish? While they were a top-5 team for most of
the year and the pick of many an analyst to win the national title, they
were never the consensus top team in the country because there were so
many other quality teams out there. The
fact that they also lost more ACC games than in the last three years
combined took a little of their invincible luster off.
Another blow to their rep was the perception that the team lived
and died by the jump shot. Lastly
was the notion that the team had no depth.
At times, all of these charges were true, but the team improved and
adjusted as the year went on and became the most balanced team in college
basketball. What eventually
made Duke so tough to beat was that they had 6 players who could score 20
or more points in any given game. Furthermore,
most of these players could perform in more than one role, which gave Duke
a lot of flexibility and helped them deal with injury and depth problems.
One thing that helped Duke going into the season was that some
stability had returned to the program.
Shane Battier announced very early on that he would be returning
for his senior year and none of the frosh jumped either.
With only a couple of new freshmen to break in, the team would be
filled with players who had a good bit of ACC experience, with two seniors
who had done it all in college basketball.
The season started on a positive note with a championship won in
the Preseason NIT. Duke
looked impressive in crushing a good Texas team but had to rally in the
closing moments against a tough Temple squad.
In a theme that would be repeated throughout the season, Jason
Williams had a mediocre game but bailed out his team with a huge step-back
three late in the game. Duke
also rallied against a top-notch Illinois team, just barely holding them
off. One negative was the
absence of forward Nick Horvath, who was expected to provide some
frontcourt depth. He had a
foot injury that never properly healed and he was out for the year.
After a frighteningly devastating win against Michigan, Duke fell
in the last minute against Stanford, blowing a 15-point lead.
Stanford's mental toughness kept them in the game when Duke was
blowing by them for easy baskets, and their physical nature eventually
wore Duke down and fouled out a couple of players.
The real problem was on defense, where Duke relaxed a bit too much,
although the offensive execution left much to be desired as well.
Duke bounced back in the ACC to whip badly overmatched FSU and
Clemson, but the Devils struggled against NC State on the road, pulling
out a narrow 6-point win thanks to Williams.
A much-improved Virginia squad got absolutely drilled in Cameron in
a game where Duke could do nothing wrong and Virginia could do nothing
right. Duke then beat a
rising Boston College team in Durham in a game that was close until the
last 5 minutes, when the Devils vaporized them with a typical run.
That game had a nasty end as some mutual taunting by Williams and
several BC players resulted in a BC player losing his cool and pushing
Williams into the scorer's table.
Physical play was something Duke had to deal with all year, as
teams would try to throw Duke off its game with hard fouls.
But their game against Tech showed that they could dish it out as
well as take it--after Tech's Michael Isenhour flagrantly elbowed Mike
Dunleavy and put JD Simpson in a headlock, Carlos Boozer tagged him
running up the floor with a 'bow of his own. Both coaches quickly condemned the actions after the game,
but it sent a message that Duke was more than a finesse team.
Duke hit a stretch where they'd play the top 3 teams in the league.
The first was a tough home win against Wake Forest where Duke's
ability to score in bunches made the difference in the last 5 minutes.
Then came the miraculous "gone in 54 seconds" game
against Maryland where the Terps had been battering Duke the entire game,
only to blow a 10 point lead in the last minute and lose in overtime.
Williams once again helped bail Duke out, with Battier blocking the
game's final shot. The last
game was a classic against UNC in Cameron, with the Heels using timely
shooting, ferocious defense and a fantastic performance from Joe Forte to
barely edge Duke and stay undefeated in the ACC. It was the first time since 1997 that Duke had been out of
first place.
The Devils regrouped by pounding the league's lesser lights in
State, FSU and Clemson, although the latter game had some nervous moments.
But an inspired Virginia team upset Duke in Charlottesville on a
last-second tip-in. Duke was
struggling with its defense and inside play, and regrouped once again to
blow out St. John's and Georgia Tech. They limited both foes to under 60
points. To finish the regular
season, Duke had to once again run the Wake-Maryland-UNC gauntlet, this
time with two of those games on the road.
They nipped Wake in a physical contest thanks to a Chris Duhon last
second shot, but that game was really marked by the strong play of Boozer.
It came as no surprise to see Duke fall to Maryland in their next game
when Boozer broke a toe. It
also didn't help that Nate James had one of the worst games of his career
and Juan Dixon one of his best. Duke
was a full game behind UNC in the standings and was in danger of dropping
to a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament.
But Coach K reinvented his team, placing ultra-quick Duhon and
Casey Sanders in the starting lineup and using football player walk-on
Reggie Love in the post at times. They made up for a lack of size by emphaszing quickness over
everything else. This worked
to perfection against UNC, as Duke employed a halfcourt trapping junk
defense that involved Battier floating from perimeter to post to halfcourt
and back again. This was
ideally suited to his style of play, as he freelanced his way into a huge
game. On offense, Williams went wild, scoring both inside and out.
Invigorated, Duke used this new look in the ACC tournament and
scored a solid win over NC State in the first round, only to face Maryland
once again in the semis. In a
classic battle, Duke pulled out a narrow win thanks to a Nate James tip-in
and a long miss at the buzzer by Juan Dixon. Duke forced enough turnovers
and hit enough threes to cancel out Maryland's huge advantage on the
boards. That set up a third
meeting between Duke and now-shaky UNC in the finals.
Duke used essentially the same game plan as before, but the results
were even more dramatic as the Tar Heel ballhandlers were harrassed into
numerous mistakes towards the end of the first half, giving Duke a huge
lead that would not be challenged. Even
an ankle injury to Jason Williams with thirteen minutes left didn't stop
the carnage.
The win gave Duke the #1 seed in the East and the path they wanted
to get to the Final Four. An easy first round win over Monmouth set up an emotional
game against Quin Snyder and his Missouri team.
They would challenge Duke offensively as few teams had all year,
but their defense couldn't stop Duke down the stretch. The opposite was true in the next game against UCLA, an ugly
defensive contest highlighted only by Jason Williams' dominant
performance. Duke then beat
surprise team Southern Cal in the regional final, a game where Duke was in
control all the way but never had a big lead.
That set up a fourth meeting with Maryland, this time in the Final
Four. The talk of the tournament was that although Duke had beaten
Maryland twice, the margin was so small that many people favored the Terps
the fourth time around. And
early on, such predictions seemed accurate, as the Terps built a 22-point
first half lead. But the
Terps were like a boxer who used up his energy too soon with an early
flurry. Duke fought back a bit at a time, using threes, tip-ins and
going down low to Boozer. Boozer
had returned against UCLA but didn't have the explosiveness to do much
scoring, although he did set some nice picks and grabbed a lot of
rebounds. But here, he went
to work against Lonny Baxter and dominated him.
A late Dixon three gave Maryland a 9-point cushion at the half, but
Duke finally took the lead late in the game on a Williams three.
James had utterly blanketed Dixon in the second half, and without
his offense the Terps struggled to extend the lead. Williams and Boozer combined to spark Duke's offense down the
stretch. That set up the title game with Arizona, a team that had gone through its share of crises but that eventually lived up to its high preseason ranking. The early part of the game involved both teams testing their defenses, with Duke choosing to have Shane Battier guard center Loren Woods despite a height disparity. This ultimately paid off, because it allowed Boozer to operate a bit more freely. Duke had a very small lead for most of the first half into the second half, until Dunleavy got hit and hit 3 threes in less than a minute. That put Duke up by 9, and while the 'Cats crawled back into the game on several occasions, they had to deal with Duke staking out 7-9 point leads. The great thing about the second half was that every major Duke player contributed somehow--Duhon scoring on a three point play, James driving for his own "and 1", Williams hitting a three that made Arizona effectively surrender, Boozer stepping up in the post, Sanders getting a big steal, Dunleavy's big shots, and Battier's last three attacks at the basket. Duke proved themselves to be extraordinarily unselfish and remarkably tough. Team MVP: Tie: Shane Battier and Jason Williams Best Win: UNC in ACC tournament finals Worst Loss: Maryland Who's Leaving: F Shane Battier, F/G Nate James, F Andre Sweet
2002 Scouting Report: Who's Coming Back: C Matt Christensen, G Jason Williams, C Carlos Boozer, F Mike Dunleavy, C Casey Sanders, G Andre Buckner, F Nick Horvath, G Chris Duhon, F Reggie Love Who's New: F Dahntay Jones (transfer), G Daniel Ewing Duke will likely be
ranked in the top three in preseason polls, and is the #1 team in Sports
Illustrated's current poll. This is despite losing NPOY Battier and
experienced hand James and having only one senior. Of course, winning the national championship and returning
perhaps the nation's best player in Jason Williams doesn't hurt.
Duke is certainly the favorite to win the ACC and national titles
next year, though there are a few question marks.
They have the shooting, the size, the depth (potentially), the
athleticism and the toughness to go a long way. The big question marks are
offensive rebounding and halfcourt defense, especially in the post.
Battier helped erase a lot of mistakes by the other players by
always knowing where to be and hustling like crazy.
James was known as the guy who always seemed to come up with the
clutch offensive rebound, especially if Maryland was the opponent.
Another potential area of concern is leadership.
With no significant seniors on the team, this might be a problem,
especially as the team's rising juniors grow in confidence and start
wanting the ball more often.
At this point, these all look like nitpicks.
Duke looks loaded and its younger players seem to be improving
steadily. While Battier will
be missed extensively on the defensive end for all he brought to the team,
it seems as though a number of players are ready to pick up his slack
offensively. Boozer was dominant in the final four and steamrolled the
opposition in the World Championships for Young Men. He is proof that Duke will be ready to attack teams in the
halfcourt if they choose to slow the game down and jam the shooters.
But where Duke will really make their mark is in transition. Adding
speedster Jones to the lineup and getting more minutes for Sanders means
that Duke will have the most devastating fast break in the country. Jones
is the slasher/finisher that Duke has lacked in the last few years, the
sort of player that was so commonly seen back in the early 90's for the
Devils. Jones' quickness and
on-ball defensive ferocity mean that Duke will probably press a little
more this year, possibly using a halfcourt trap.
Throwing on this kind of pressure and leaning on a deeper bench
will help make up for Battier's defensive prowess in the post.
Duke's frontcourt features Boozer, who looks like he's finally
ready to fully capitalize on all of his talent.
He's strong, agile and has great feet.
He can also score with either hand and has developed decent
dropstep and up-and-under moves. He's finally comfortable with his size and how to use it in
the post after shying away from contact at times.
Boozer can also hit short jumpers, though he rarely attempts them.
Defensively, he has gone from being inept to solid, though he still
has a long way to go in that area. He's
better playing the passing lanes than bodying up his man in the paint, but
his defensive footwork has improved to the point where he's not a
liability. I expect him to
have a breakout season, and considering that he averaged a very
respectable 13.3 ppg and 6.5 rpg, that's saying something.
Sanders came into his own late in the year, and word has it that
he's finally catching the ball a bit better in the offseason.
His strengths and weaknesses are all obvious: he can run, finish
and block shots but needs increased size & strength, better hands and
more confidence. He will spell Boozer and occasionally play alongside him.
Also in the mix is Horvath, who showed signs of life before he hurt
his foot. He's a step slower
than most of his teammates, which doesn't help his chances, but he has an
opportunity to make an impact on the offensive boards and with mid-range
jumpers. Another player to
look out for is Reggie Love. The
football player exhibited some very strong and aggressive play down the
stretch as he started to get into the groove of playing basketball again. It will be a bit more difficult to get minutes with a deeper
squad, but he's the man to call on for tough post defense and offensive
rebounding.
The backcourt is jammed with potential All-Americans and All-ACC
players. First and foremost is the fearless Williams, who passed up the
opportunity to be the #1 player in the NBA draft to return for his degree
and further college glory. Like
Battier last year, he will be the poster boy for college basketball in
2002, with a lot of scrutiny and high expectations.
How he handles this will be important.
His credentials as a scorer and distributor are impeccable, so his
mission this year will be to improve his defense and assist to turnover
ratio. One thing he'll have
to overcome is a hand that he broke in the offseason; luckily, it wasn't
his shooting hand and shouldn't slow down his preseason preparations.
At the other starting guard slot is Duhon, who was the captain of
the World Championship team that won the gold medal and rarely left the
court. He had a nearly 3:1
assist to turnover ratio for Duke last year and was by far its best
on-ball defender. Expect to
see him shoot more often and take a few more risks.
The only new player on the team is Ewing, a rangy 6-5 guard
reminiscient of Thomas Hill. He
will spell Duke at off guard and concentrate on defense and slashing to
the basket. Also on the team is Buckner, a "happy-to-be-here"
practice player who can actually play a bit.
The wings include the positionless Dunleavy, who is now nearly 6-10
and a bit stronger, and Jones, a classic Duke "power wing".
Dunleavy does a lot of things well but isn't dominant in any
particular area. He needs to
improve his shooting, get stronger and move his feet a bit better on
defense. He'll play all over the court, pulling up for threes, driving to
the basket or making a pass. Jones
sat out a year after transferring from Rutgers, and the word is that he's
ready to become an impact player right away.
He made his mark initially on defense, at times shutting down
Battier and Williams. He is
the best athlete on the team and its best leaper, adding another dimension
to Duke's offense. Duke will continue to bomb away in 2002 but will perhaps rein in that aspect of the offense just a bit so that Boozer can get more touches inside and Jones will have a chance to create in the halfcourt. Expect to see the parade to the foul line continue as Williams, Duhon, Jones and Dunleavy break down defenses. The best way to attack Duke will be to go right at their guards, taking them off the dribble. Quick, rangy forwards will also want to take it right at Dunleavy. Strong post players might have some success inside against the smaller Boozer and skinnier Sanders. The key to beating Duke will be inside power and a deep bench, along with a steady point guard who won't turn the ball over and create points for Duke. The Devils will be a tough combo of athleticism, shooting, size, toughness and experience. If all goes well, they have a chance for another great season. Projected Starting Lineup: C Boozer |
