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2001-2002 ACC Preview |
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Rob's full preview will be posted according to the following schedule (in inverse order of last season's ACC standings): 9/29
- 2000-2001 ACC Predictions vs. Reality 2001 Round-Up:
Another year of promise went by the wayside for the Wolfpack. The
early season blowouts at the hands of Fresno State and Charlotte proved to
be an early augur of their fortunes as they once again struggled against
ranked programs. They also
experienced their usual and unfortunate injury problems, with frosh
Michael Bell and shooter Archie Miller going down for long periods of
time. Unfortunately, no one
stepped up and their seniors didn't provide much leadership.
In fact, that may well be the understatement of the year, as
State's collection of flakes and malcontents in the senior class were the
worst possible set of examples for their younger players.
This year's collection of disappointments was especially galling
because it looked like the Pack had finally gotten it together in terms of
talent and experience. For
once, it looked like both the frontcourt and backcourt would have solid
talent at the same time. But
then the wheels started to come off, one by one.
First, three-point sharpshooter Archie Miller got hurt and missed
several games. Even when he
came back, he wasn't as effective as he needed to be. This crippled State
since they had no other dependable three point shooters. Frosh Michael
Bell, expected to contribute inside, got hurt 4 games into the season and
took a redshirt. Second, the
unstable Kenny Inge-Ron Kelley- Damon Thornton frontcourt didn't improve
one iota, which meant the occasional good game but more often meant
mediocrity. Kelley and
Thornton didn't even average in double figures.
Third, the freshmen simply weren't of much assistance.
The much-hyped Scooter Sherrill proved to be a scoring dud and
didn't do much else to help the team.
Marcus Melvin showed some potential but clearly needs a lot more
work in the weight room. Finally,
the uber-hyped recruit of two years ago, Damien Wilkins, proved that he
was merely an average player with limited skills.
He could rebound, score near the basket and pass a bit, but he
couldn't shoot or handle the ball. The result was a 1-11 record against
ranked teams, and a 12-5 record against unranked teams--Sendek's first
losing record at State. Of
course, the difference
between Sendek's season and the last few grim seasons of the Les Robinson
era was that Les didn't have any talent to speak of, whereas Herb has been
getting the star recruits. More
on that later.
The season got off to an ugly start, with a close win against Penn followed
by 2 shockingly ugly blowout losses to unranked Charlotte and Fresno
State. Those two defeats
marked the first of 11 occasions that State would shoot under 40%.
Now, those two teams turned out to be pretty good clubs, but State
barely competed against them. The
Pack bounced back by trouncing Charleston Southern and then securing a
solid win over Penn State, a game in which Anthony Grundy looked dominant
on offense and Inge controlled the boards.
But that game was followed by a narrow win over a bad Old Dominion
club, where State had to shoot 60% just to pull out a 6 point decision.
Worse yet, State required a last-second tip-in by Grundy to beat a
bad UNC-Greensboro team. The
wretched play culminated in a close loss to an OK Georgia squad where both
teams shot poorly, but where State had an enormously sloppy run that
allowed the Dogs to get ahead and hold the Pack off.
With a 5-3 record, everyone was starting to get a bit nervous.
Easy wins over New Hampshire, UNC-Asheville and Cal-Poly helped pad
the record a bit before the ACC season.
That began with two very tough losses.
The Pack blew an 11 point lead to Virginia and dropped a 7 point
decision on the road. Then a
big comeback against #2 Duke fell 6 points short, but the Pack at least
felt good about the way they played.
It was Wilkins' best game, scoring 21 points and grabbing 12
rebounds. Unfortunately, it
would prove to be by far his best game of the season.
A sub-30% shooting effort doomed NC State at doormat Clemson, and
it was time for full panic mode. They
answered that with a gut-check win against Tech, where the Pack used their
size to control the boards and shut down Tech's shooters.
But the Pack were no match for Maryland, who used their superior
inside game to score at will and easily shut them down.
At 1-4 in the league, they barely scraped out an OT win against
awful FSU, needing to shoot 50% to do it.
The Pack were now 10-7 and had only managed to beat two half-decent
teams. The next three games would prove to be the most crucial time of the
year for State. The first
game was a showdown against archrival UNC in Raleigh, a game that is
always tough for the Heels. The
Pack overcame an early deficit and were within 1 with about a minute left,
but didn't score again. That frustration was magnified the next game
against Wake, when the Pack overcame a 16 point deficit to send it to OT,
only to lose. But the Pack
really snapped in their next game, a 1-point loss to Syracuse in Raleigh
where the Pack blew an 11 point second-half lead and took a terrible final
shot. Only a miracle was
going to get the Pack into the tournament, and that didn't seem like it
was forthcoming.
The Pack did bounce back by trouncing Virginia, shooting 56% for
the game with a monstrous 26 point, 9 rebound game from Inge.
But that elation was short lived as Duke brought them back to
reality with an easy win. The
highlights became fewer and fewer as the season dragged on.
They got revenge
on Clemson with an easy win, but then looked awful at both ends of the
court in getting thumped by Tech and Maryland.
A Senior Night win over FSU buoyed their spirits for a bit, but
that was soon dampened by a poor- shooting loss to UNC and a blowout loss
to Wake, hungry for the NCAA tournament. The season came to a merciful end
as State fell to Duke in the ACC tournament. By the end of the year, only
Grundy was coming out to play hard every night. The only thing left to do
was decide who was to take the blame.
Sendek certainly has to shoulder a large degree of blame for
State's problems. Their
offense was a vanilla, walk-it-up type of game that didn't take advantage
of some decent athleticism. But
it was very clear that his team didn't have the discipline to play great
transition defense when they ran, and so he preferred a more conservative
style of play. The problem
was that his team wasn't winning, so that his players never really bought
into it. That may be one
reason why so many of his players have transferred of late.
Those transfers have hurt team continuity, although some of the
players who've left tended to be me-first scorers.
It's Sendek's fault that he recruited them in the first place, but
his desperation for scoring put him in that position.
The players themselves must shoulder a larger share of the blame,
though. Inge, Kelley and
Thornton were positively toxic role models for their teammates, being
known more for their problems off the court (in the case of Inge and
Thornton) than on. If you
could have somehow combined
Kelley's scoring potential, Thornton's defense and Inge's body and then
gave them Grundy's will to win, you would have had a great player.
The team's biggest overall problem was that it didn't have a go-to
player who could break other teams down one-on-one on a consistent basis.
The closest thing they had was Grundy, whose limitations as a player made
it difficult to do that every game. While
a very good player, he simply didn't
have what it took to be a one-man team ala Will Solomon.
Sendek is essentially getting one last chance, with the
powers-that-be at State knowing he'll have a super recruit in Julius Hodge
coming in. Another losing season and he'll definitely be out.
In fact, it may take an NCAA berth to assure Sendek of keeping his
job. Team MVP: Anthony Grundy Best Win: Virginia Worst Loss: @Clemson 2002 Scouting Report: Who's Leaving: F Kenny
Inge, C Damon Thornton, C Ron Kelley, G Trey Guidry, F Damien Wilkins, C
Cornelius Williams Who's Coming Back: G
Anthony Grundy, G Archie Miller, G Clifford Crawford, F Marcus Melvin, G
Scooter Sherrill Who's New: F Michael Bell
(redshirt), C Kristian Jensen (redshirt), C
Jordan Collins, G Julius Hodge, G Dovonte Edwards, F Josh Powell, F
Levi Watkins, F Ilian Evtimov NC State loses all
of its frontcourt experience and will lose Wilkins as well.
Or rather, Sendek finally had enough of nightmare stage parent
Gerald Wilkins' histrionics. Sendek
told Damien that he was no longer welcome at NC State after his father
made rumblings about him transferring.
While the other frontcourt players who left were flaky at best,
they did play good defense and had a lot of experience and decent size.
This means that a
number of freshmen are going to be getting some big minutes in the
post. The early word is that
the biggest of big men (Collins in particular) are slow and ineffective.
Could this mean that Sendek will at last adopt an uptempo style of
play? He's been promising to
open up the offense for years but instead it's been the same old,
grind-it-out halfcourt snoozefest.
Sendek has had a lot of problems relating more to skill sets than
pure athleticism. The main
problem is that he's had a lot of players with similar skills jammed at a
couple of positions, and glaring needs at other spots. Part of this was
due to injuries, transfers and highly-touted preps greatly underachieving.
For example, point guard has been a concern for quite some time.
State hasn't had a good center in years.
Laziness and general bad behavior by some players has been an
issue, while an overwhelming weakness in someone's game limiting their
playing time has also made things a struggle. For example, Archie Miller
can really shoot but he's slow, an average playmaker and an awful
defender.
Sendek's past run of bad luck and questionable decisions aside,
what can we expect from the Pack in 2002?
The team will be very, very young.
The only guys coming back who played more than 20 minutes a game in
2001 are Grundy, Crawford and Miller.
And Grundy is the only one of that group who scored in double
digits. He's also one of the
few players on State's roster who could play on any team in the league and
succeed. He's a decent if
streaky shooter (33%), a great penetrator blessed with long arms, a good
passer (3.3 apg) and even a
solid rebounder for a guard (4.3 rpg).
Grundy's been doing
yeoman's work his entire career on a mediocre team, which is all the more
amazing because he doesn't really have star talent.
On a good team, he would truly excel as a complementary player, not
unlike Chris Carrawell for Duke in 1999.
The other returning guards encapsulate State's problems because
both Crawford and Miller are
really 2-guards. Miller just
has the misfortune of being a 5-10 off-guard while Crawford is much better
suited to come off the bench. He
doesn't do anything especially well, but he did score 7.7 ppg and hit a
solid 37% of his threes. Miller
hit a sizzling 58% (!) of his threes, but often had trouble getting open.
State needs to find ways to work him off screens more.
Another backcourt returnee is Sherrill, a highly-touted player who
didn't do much of anything as a frosh.
By all accounts, he simply looked lost out there.
With the arrival of Hodge and the logjam at the off-guard position,
Sherrill may not get a lot of playing time this year.
The frontcourt is a great mystery.
Rangy Melvin had his moments last year, and his athleticism gives
him an advantage over stronger State players.
And if the Pack really plan to run this year, having a Marcus Camby-like
player to run the floor would be a big advantage.
Melvin really needs to improve all of his skills, however.
He also lacks the height (6-8) to be a true post presence.
Another possibility in the frontcourt is Bell, another tall &
rangy player who missed most of last year with an injury.
I can guarantee you one player that will be starting, and that's
Hodge. He'll definitely be the starting wing, and I think he'll have a lot
of success there. What sets
him apart from Wilkins and Sherrill is that he possesses superb quickness
and overall athleticism along with surprsing strength.
He also has a decent skill set, though his shot must become more
consistent. If Sendek decides
to run more, Hodge will be the one who finishes on the break.
There's a good bit of pressure on Hodge to become a big-time scorer
right away, and further pressure on getting State to the NCAA's.
Ultimately, it will come down to whether or not he can dominate. A
Hodge who scores at least 15 ppg would not only boost the Pack in general,
but it will improve Grundy's game as well.
As for the rest of State's freshman class, how much each will
contribute is a bit less clear. The
biggest surprise over the summer was Evtimov. Regarded by some as being an
overly slow spot-up shooter, solid play against some great athletes
changed some minds. State
really needs someone to hit
jumpers, and he will have the chance to show other teams a very different
look from Hodge on the wing. I
can even see the two of them in the game together, with Hodge sliding over
to off-guard, penetrating and kicking out to Evtimov for the three.
Where Evtimov will really have to prove himself is on defense.
Guarding quicker wings may prove to be an enormous problem.
State has three big men coming in, and no one's sure how much
they'll play. The biggest and only true center is Collins, who is 6-10 and
250. But the word is that
he's way too slow and ponderous to make any kind of impact, at least as a
freshman. Watkins is only 6-7
and more of a wing (once again, there's a logjam at wing with Hodge and
Evtimov also ideally playing there), but he's very skilled and a good
shooter. He will probably
have to play out of position at the four to get decent minutes.
But his shooting and ability to run will definitely get him some
playing time. The key player
is Powell. He's 6-9 but only
210 pounds. Can he start and
not get pushed around in the lane? Between
him and Bell, the center position looks incredibly shaky for State, unless
Collins proves everyone wrong and upgrades his game.
The other big man, Jensen, is a JuCo transfer who is very tall
(7-1) but very thin (215). It's
doubtful he'll play much.
So, to review: State has three quality off-guards, three quality
wings, three decent forwards who are all too short or thin to play at PF,
two centers who are in no way ready to contribute, and no point guard.
The good news is that the guards and wings may be enough to carry
the program, especially if Sendek simply unleashes them.
Hodge has the talent to become an immediate All-ACC competitor if
he can live up to his hype, Grundy is a warrior and leader, and the rest
will bring a lot of enthusiasm. If
this team has four guys who can score in double digits (and I think it
might, with Evtimov and Miller joining Grundy and Hodge) and young post
players who do nothing but grab some rebounds and play defense, then State
has a chance to really compete.
But only by completely changing his system does Sendek have any
chance of winning this year. It
is extremely unlikely that State will break into the top three, and both
Wake & UNC have more balance and overall talent.
Ultimately, it will all come down to Hodge, both in learning to
step up and take control of games and how to make his teammates better
when he's double-teamed. State
will go as far as he takes them.
Projected Starting
Lineup: C Powell Reported by Rob Clough, tmc@duke.edu |
