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2001-2002 ACC Preview |
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Rob's full preview will be posted according to the following schedule (in inverse order of last season's ACC standings): 9/29
- 2000-2001 ACC Predictions vs. Reality 2001 Round-Up:
After a rough start, UNC looked like they were on their way to a
dream season with a #1 ranking, an 18 game winning streak, and a win over
Duke in Cameron. At the
midway point of the season, I didn't see any weaknesses in the team; and
they were playing fantastic defense.
Then some small problems snowballed, Doherty made some bad game
decisions, and the team as a whole didn't react well to his
confrontational leadership style.
Despite later denials, it was clear that there were some chemistry
problems that weren't helped by Doherty's unusual substitution patterns.
More than anything, his team was fatigued down the stretch and he
didn't find ways to deal with that fatigue.
The year got off to an ugly start with double-digit losses to
Kentucky and Michigan State. The
loss to MSU was no surprise given their status as favorites for the
national title, but that Kentucky team had been erratic and they simply
humiliated UNC in the Dean Dome. The
biggest problem early on was at point guard.
With Ron Curry unavailable, it meant that frosh Adam Boone and
Brian Morrison had to give it a go. Boone's
tentativeness, average quickness and lack of offense slowed the team down
while Morrison's wildness and turnovers hurt the team with silly plays.
In his defense, Morrison is not a true point guard and looked much
more comfortable on the wing. Forte
spent some time at point as an experiment, and while he did a decent job,
it came at the expense of his own offense.
Even though these were UNC's only 2 losses until February, they did
struggle against teams like Winthrop (66-61) and Charleston (64-60).
Granted those are very good midmajor teams, but they should not
have been able to challenge the Heels the way they did.
UNC slowly improved throughout December, earning a significant road
win against UCLA. The Heels
took a big lead, blew it, and then closed out the Bruins with an 18-8 run.
Forte was especially brilliant, posting a 29-point game.
After beating but not blowing away Georgia Tech, UNC used an alert
tip-in basket on a friendly bounce to Brendan Haywood to nip undefeated
Wake Forest. This game would
change both of those teams' seasons--it continued the Heels on their
winning streak and led to their first-place finish, while it seemed to
shatter Wake's confidence.
UNC's next big showdown came against Maryland, a team that had
given them some trouble in recent years and was picked to finish ahead of
them in the ACC. Once again,
UNC took a big lead and almost blew it, and once again, they were saved by
the heroics of Forte. Games
like this are what helped to establish the team's growing dependence on
Forte, but to his credit he certainly came through.
Following routine wins over Clemson and Marquette, Forte once again
bailed out his team against Florida State.
The Heels only beat the worst team in the league by 10, as the
Noles pulled to within 3 points with eight minutes left; but Forte scored
12 in a row to give the Heels some room.
UNC had trouble stopping FSU's guards, something that would be a
problem later in the year.
This may sound like a broken record, but UNC won yet another ACC
game by a narrow margin after blowing a lead, only to be rescued by Forte.
This time it was Virginia, and it was Forte's 33 points that made
the difference. The Heels then beat blood enemies NC State in Raleigh
behind the defense of Haywood and the usual scoring facility of Forte.
Haywood hit some big foul shots down the stretch, and UNC's overall
team defense shut down the Pack.
That theme would be repeated in the big showdown against Duke in
Cameron. Both teams were 7-0 in the ACC, and the Heels hadn't beaten the
Devils in Durham since 1996. But
a brilliant defensive game by the Heels (holding Duke to under 40%), great
individual play by Haywood at both ends of the court, big-time shooting
from Capel and the all-around brilliance of Forte helped UNC to a narrow
win in a classic game. Haywood
sealed the win with 2 huge free throws with just a couple of seconds left.
Having overcome their biggest rivals with a tremendous all-around
game, the Heels were on top of the world.
Unfortunately, the season did not end on February 1st, but in
April.
They again beat but didn't dominate Tech, mucked out another close
one with Wake Forest (thanks to Forte and the front line) and then
absolutely whipped a reeling Maryland team.
The domination was total. They
won by 14 points, shot 58%, and hit 7-10 threes.
Even better, Capel and Peppers were the big scorers in this game.
The Heels had ripped off 18 in a row and were 11-0 in the ACC.
After a couple of good-but-not-great games, UNC had peaked once
again, playing even better than they had against Duke.
Then the worst possible thing happened: the team got a week off.
It's hard to understand why, but after that break, the Heels were
simply never the same. Did
something happen to affect the team's chemistry, which looked fractured at
best down the stretch? Was
Doherty simply unable to properly motivate them during the layoff--or
worse, was his tough demeanor a bit hard for the players to swallow
considering their success? Did
the time for reflection make some players think about issues like playing
time and shot selection? Or
was it simply that some coaches had studied Doherty's tendencies and
discovered some fatal flaws?
Whatever it was, the Heels played like a group of corpses against
awful Clemson club. Forte
couldn't save his team, and an inspired group of Tigers pulled off the
biggest upset of the year. The
Heels saved some face by drubbing FSU, but then got crushed by Virginia on
the road. The Cavs used a
breakneck pace to tire the slower Heels and a potent three point attack to
stretch their defense. UNC
beat an offensively-challenged NC State team by just 10 despite
outshooting them 57-37%. Still,
UNC was up by a game against Duke with just one game left, and the Devils
would be without Carlos Boozer in the rematch.
Duke used Virginia's hyper pace and Clemson's trapping to attack
UNC in their weak areas: ballhandling and team speed.
Bombing away at will, Duke's offensive attack also caught UNC
off-guard. Duke had inserted
Chris Duhon into the starting lineup for more quickness, and while UNC
fought back at times, it was clearly Duke's day.
Still, UNC had managed to get a first-place tie with a team that
had dominated them for three years.
The first round of the ACC tournament featured a high-scoring game
with Clemson, with the Heels winning the rubber match thanks to a crazy
three point shooting show by Capel. The
game was marred by a postgame shouting match between Doherty and Clemson
coach Larry Shyatt over various forms of gamesmanship.
UNC then nipped a tough Georgia Tech team, once again giving up a
big lead but managing to hold on towards the end.
That set up a rubber game against Duke for the ACC title.
That contst would prove to be truly anticlimactic, with Duke taking
a slim early lead and then turning it into a blowout by halftime.
Doherty tried to play Duke's fast-paced game and got hammered for
his efforts.
UNC continued to look lethargic in their NCAA opener against
Princeton. The Heels had lost their #1 seed and were shipped to the South
Region. Once again, they
built a big early lead but slept through much of the second half, allowing
the plucky Tigers to rally a bit. But
the Heels woke up and put them away.
The same can't be said for their game against Penn State, a
mediocre Big Ten team that had lost to NC State earlier in the season. UNC
turned the ball over 22 times, with their point guard play absolutely
killing them, while Forte had one of his worst games of the year.
Penn State was in control for much of the game before UNC rallied
in the second half, and then promptly gave up their lead.
Worst of all, Penn State was able to kill a lot of clock with
several timely offensive rebounds in the last few minutes of the game.
In all honesty, this team probably overachieved a bit in the
regular season. Having a new
coach can sometimes really boost a team's energy level, and the rah-rah
go-get-'em style of Doherty instilled some new spirit into the program--up
to a point. But a team that
was used to the slow-and-steady pace of Bill Guthridge and the comforts of
the Carolina System had to bristle at Doherty's in-your-face style.
It must also be noted that Doherty's only been a head coach for a
couple of years, and that learning how to win in the postseason is perhaps
the most difficult lesson a young coach must learn.
I suspect that with his own players and system in place (one that
looks suspiciously like Duke's in many ways), UNC will once again go deep
into the postseason. But they
certainly won't resemble the sort of teams that UNC has put on the floor
in the past. Team MVP: Joseph Forte
Best Win: @ Duke
Worst Loss: @ Clemson
2002 Scouting Report: Who's Leaving: C Brendan
Haywood, G Max Owens, G Michael Brooker,
G Joseph Forte, F Julius Peppers, G Ron Curry (?)
Who's Coming Back: F
Jason Capel, F Brian Bersticker, F/C Kris Lang, F Orlando Melendez, G Jon
Holmes, F Will Johnson, G Adam Boone, G Brian Morrison
Who's New: C Neil
Fingleton (redshirt), G Jackie Manuel, G Melvin Scott,
F Jawad Williams Things are
extremely up in the air at this point.
Peppers almost certainly won't be back next year, since he'll be
preparing for the NFL draft in the middle of basketball season.
Curry has stated that it's unlikely he'll return either, for the
same reason. Even if he does
play basketball, he knows that he would have few opportunities to improve
his stock as a scorer. Forte's
departure for the NBA really hurts the Heels, especially on offense.
Right now, they don't have any proven players who can get their own
shot. UNC is in the
unpleasant position of needing to depend on all three of its freshmen for
not only a lot of minutes, but a lot of offensive production.
Lastly, the Heels weren't able to recruit a big man to replace
Haywood, meaning that Lang must step up and learn how to stay in games a
bit better.
On the positive side, very little will be expected from this team,
and that lack of pressure will allow the young players to develop at their
own pace. As a result, I
expect the chemistry on the team to be greatly improved.
The Heels will be the true mystery team of 2002.
The Carolina mystique may help them a bit here and there, spooking
lesser programs. Being an underdog to a lot of their opponents will be an
excellent motivator. Having
scoring responsibilities (theoretically) spread around a bit more should
probably help team camaraderie. Having
some of his own recruits around should help Doherty feel a bit more
comfortable. But all of that
is gravy. What about the
actual talent on the team?
We'll begin in the post. Kris
Lang frequently struggled last year, especially on defense.
But part of the problem is that he didn't mesh well with Haywood in
the lineup at the same time. Both
had essentially similar strengths and weaknesses.
Both were strong and large and could rebound and score in close.
Haywood was a superior defender and shotblocker, while Lang had a
more accurate (and often lethal) hook shot. Neither was especially fleet
of foot, and Lang in particular lacks lateral quickness.
Both were terrible foul shooters and had poor range from outside a
couple of feet from the basket. Still,
when Lang got in a groove and his teammates got him the ball regularly, he
could be a terror. His size
and aggressiveness made him a good rebounder (5.7 per game).
He needs to get in better shape, stay healthy and avoid foul
trouble.
It's difficult to tell how much, if any, help Lang will get in the
frontcourt. Fingleton is a
huge (7-6) player who had injuries and had to sit the year out.
It remains to be seen if he can contribute in the Doherty system.
Many experts have said that he's more than just a stiff and that he
has some real offensive skills, and it goes without saying that he can
alter shots on defense. But
can he keep up in a running game? That's
the real question. He'll get
an opportunity simply because Doherty doesn't have many other answers at
the position. The starter at
power forward is likely to be Williams or possibly Capel.
Williams is explosive and rangy but not especially strong.
He's a bit undersized at 6-8 to be playing at four but considering
that most of the league is undersized, this probably isn't a big deal.
Simply put, Williams must contribute to the tune of double digit
scoring or else UNC is sunk. There
is the possibility that Bersticker might actually contribute this year,
but he doesn't seem to be a Doherty favorite.
He's a tall, athletic player with a fine-looking shot who is an
awful defender. He's had to
deal with some injuries, and I suspect he's simply too skinny to succeed
in the league. Still, he'll
get a good chance to show what he's got because the Heels need him.
Suffice it to say that the Heels will miss Haywood and Peppers, who
could have gotten a lot of playing time.
The Heels will miss his size, strength and aggressive play.
The Heels are actually pretty well-stocked at wing.
Capel figures to have a breakout senior year after playing second
fiddle to Forte for a couple of years.
Capel never quite lived up to his top-ten recruiting status but
this isn't to say he hasn't had a good career.
He's overcome a number of injuries to put up some impressive
numbers: he tied Haywood for the team rebounding lead (7.3 a game), was
third in assists (111, just 8 behind Curry) and third in scoring (11.4 ppg).
He was also UNC's best three point shooter by far--at 42%, he was
the only Heel to crack 40%. What
he doesn't do well is attack people off the dribble and get to the foul
line. He's a complementary
player who isn't likely to take over games, but he solidly gets the job
done. He'll have to hope that
he can continue to get open shots with more attention paid to him.
His main backup will probably be Manuel, a super-athletic player
whose forte is defense. If he
can handle the ball and shoot, he'll get big minutes, but his ability to
defend will get him in the lineup right away.
He may in fact completely obviate the presence of Will Johnson, a
fundamentally sound player with little athleticism.
He appeared in a surprising number of games, mostly because Doherty
knew he wouldn't do anything stupid.
Big minutes for Johnson this year would only occur if one of the
freshmen wasn't ready. Also
on the wing is Melendez, a great athlete who isn't much of a basketball
player. He will likely finish
out his career on the bench.
The backcourt provides more questions than answers at this point.
Gone is All-America Forte, who took nearly twice as many shots as
anyone else on the team. He
also led the team in steals and was a close second in assists.
Forte was also a remarkable rebounder for a guard at 6.1 per game.
You can say all you want about chemistry problems, selfishness and the
perils of depending on one guy, but Forte delivered for the Heels in game
after game until the very end of the year.
Replacing his offensive contribution will be the Heels' biggest
task this year. Also
important in his own way was Curry, who stablized the team's ballhandling
and proved to be a decent distributor and solid defender.
While not a star, he was certainly not a liability, except from the
foul line (57%). If he leaves
the team, as is expected, then point guard becomes a gigantic question
mark.
The most likely candidate is Boone.
A modestly athletic player, he was simply not ready for prime time
last year. He shot poorly
(30%) and had 44 assists to 33 turnovers--not exactly a great ratio.
Still, there is hope that he'll settle into the position and
provide solid, no-nonsense leadership there.
Morrison was also used at the position, which was a huge mistake.
This natural off guard was too wild to produce at point, though his
athleticism made him an effective slasher and he showed potential from the
three point line (38%). He
still needs a lot of seasoning, but look for him to start.
Fighting for minutes at both positions will be Scott, who is more
of a shooter than a distributor. The
Heels desperately need anyone who can shoot, so he may be able to carve
out a role right away. The
last Heel in the rotation is Jon Holmes, a scrappy point guard who is
steady but not much of an athlete or shooter.
If all else fails, he may get some minutes.
UNC has a lot of variables going into the 2002 season.
They lost a lot of talent, experience and continuity.
On the other hand, they no longer have
a first-year coach and may well have removed some of their
chemistry problems. The returning talent is solid but unremarkable, a
group of support players whom vary greatly in the degree to which they've
contributed so far. The new
talent brings in some impressive credentials and good all-star game
performances. UNC
needs players like Capel and Lang to not only increase
their productivity across the board, it needs them to become great
leaders. UNC needs
tremendous sophomore year improvement from Morrison and Boone.
It desperately needs
some help in the post for Lang. And
it needs its freshmen to
contribute, especially on offense. If
all of these things happen, then I think
UNC honestly has a chance to contend for the conference crown.
If none of these
things happen, then UNC could be headed for the basement.
I suspect that the
result will be somewhere inbetween, with the greater experience of
the top clubs in the league making the difference.
But don't be surprised if UNC
rides its newfound status as underdog a very long way. Projected Starting
Lineup: C Lang |
