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2001-2002 ACC Preview |
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Rob's full preview will be posted according to the following schedule (in inverse order of last season's ACC standings): 9/29
- 2000-2001 ACC Predictions vs. Reality 2001 Round-Up:
Paul Hewitt took a Tech team filled with marginal talents and a
massively underachieving center and turned it into an NCAA tournament
club. He richly deserved his
ACC coach of the year award for this feat. Among other things, he adjusted
to the loss of a first-round NBA draft pick and major offensive force
(Jason Collier), turned a lightly regarded (at best) group of freshmen
into real contributors, survived a season-ending injury to one of the few
men on his team who could mix it up inside (Clarence Moore) and
transformed erratic point guard Tony Akins into a reliable and
consistent scorer and leader.
But clearly, turning Alvin Jones into a credible offensive threat
and keeping his head in the game at all times was his greatest
achievement. Jones
never became a great scorer nor did he ever develop a
smooth set of moves in the post.
But he scored enough to be effective and
absolutely smothered opponents on defense, leading the ACC in
rebounding and finishing a
narrow second in blocks. Hewitt
guided Tech to the NCAA's thanks to
a tough schedule that got them crucial out-of-conference wins and
finishing at .500 in the ACC, something that hadn't been
accomplished at Tech for
quite some time.
Hewitt went into the season wanting his team to run as much as
possible, and this uptempo style was on display in easy wins over Wofford,
Charleston Southern and Davidson. But
their first road trip, a big loss to Iowa, showed that their defense
wasn't quite up to that kind of up-and-down activity.
This was in part due to problems in rebounding, despite Jones'
dominance. But the Jackets
made up for that loss by beating UCLA in Anaheim, thanks mostly to Akins.
But Akins was awful in a loss to archrival Georgia as Tech was down
big early on.
This Tech team proved to be extremely resilient, however, and they
upset a struggling Kentucky team thanks to a last-second Shaun Fein shot.
After felling Idaho State, they lost a physical contest to #3 Stanford.
The Cardinal just had too much size and firepower, but the Jackets used a
fullcourt press on defense to rattle them at times.
After a couple of tune-ups against Morgan State and Harvard, the
Jackets hosted UNC. Cold
shooting and a serious deficit on the boards spelled a double-digit loss,
but the scrappy Jackets were never entirely out of the game.
The Jackets tried out their pressing style on Maryland, who outran
and outrebounded Tech for an easy victory, though not before the Terps had
to deal with a couple of Tech comeback attempts.
At this point, the Jackets were playing more-or-less according to
the form. Very little was
expected from a team with little talent or experience, and most thought
that they'd have little chance in their upcoming games against Wake Forest
and Virginia.
It was at this point that Tech's season started to become
miraculous. Virginia was perhaps a little overconfident, but the #10 team
in the country sufferred their first home loss to Tech, thanks to a big
night from Fein. He was starting to become a consistent performer and part
of a Tech "big three", along with Jones and Akins.
But it was Halston Lane who came up big against #6 Wake, leading
the team to an OT win with 21 points.
That notable win was followed by an embarrassing loss to NC State
and a thrashing at the hands
of Duke. Tech's shooters went
ice-cold in the first game, and foul trouble from Jones hindered Tech's
defense in the second. The
Jackets bounced back to edge Clemson 111-108 in an old- fashioned shootout
and edged FSU by 9 points. They
were a surprising 4-4 in the ACC'S first half, with two significant upsets
and only one bad loss.
Repeating their first four grueling ACC games, Tech once again gave
UNC a good fight, but didn't have the firepower to beat them.
But they did score a huge upset over a struggling Maryland team,
thanks to pressure defense and another big night from Akins.
They followed that up with another win over Virginia; remarkably,
they were the only ACC squad to sweep
them. Tech's defense
ruled that game, forcing the Hoos into sub-40% shooting. But they were
blown out by Wake Forest in a game the Deacs really needed to win.
Tech was 6-6 at that point, and guessed that they would probably
need to either be 9-7 or beat Duke to get into the NCAA's.
They smothered a bad State team at home but were no match for Duke
on Shane Battier's jersey retirement night, losing by 40 points.
They were able to put that game aside to take care of business
against Clemson. They had
reached the crucial 8-win mark and looked to go to 9 against league patsy
FSU. It didn't happen, as the
Jackets shot an absurdly low 25%, let FSU shoot 51% and got outrebounded
to boot. Tech's shot at going
to the tournament was suddenly in great jeopardy.
They would need to win at least one ACC tournament game to qualify.
That they did, beating a cold Virginia team for a third time,
thanks to a superb effort by Alvin Jones, who fouled out UVa's Travis
Watson and nearly had a triple-double.
The Jackets, playing with a home-court advantage of sorts, matched
up against UNC in the ACC semis. Tech
broke out to a 7-point lead
early on, but missed 17 consecutive shots at one point as UNC staked out a
big lead. But behind Fein and
Akins, the Jackets came back before UNC's Joe Forte made some big plays
down the stretch. Their
strong efforts in the ACC tourney, combined with wins over tourney teams
UCLA and Kentucky and an 8-8 record in the league gave them their first
tourney berth in several years.
But it didn't last long. They
matched up against St. Joseph's, a team probably underseeded at #9.
The Hawks were blowing out Tech early on, but the Jackets came back
behind pressure defense and hot shooting.
But some crucial misses down the stretch doomed Tech, who lost by a
narrow 66-62 score. Still,
Hewitt greatly exceeded expectations, so much so that
Tech immediately reworked his contract.
Hewitt went out and signed a solid
recruiting class, though the lack of experience on next year's
squad will be a major issue.
But it's very clear that Tech made a superb choice of
coaches, as Hewitt brings both the expectations of a much tougher
work ethic and the fun of
playing an uptempo style. Team MVP: Alvin Jones
Best Win: Maryland
Worst Loss: @ Florida
State 2002
Scouting Report: Who's Leaving: C Alvin
Jones, G Shaun Fein, G Darryl LaBarrie, G TJ Vines, F Jon Babul
Who's Coming Back: G Tony
Akins, F Michael Isenhour, F Clarence Moore,
G/F Halston Lane, F Robert Brooks, G Marvin Lewis
Who's New: G Barry Elder,
F Is'mail Muhammad, F Ed Nelson, G Anthony Vasser, C Luke Schenscher
2001 was Paul Hewitt's Wonder Year.
2002 is unlikely to be as kind.
Yes, Hewitt came in with a losing team deprived of a first round
pick and whipped them into shape, but the fact is that he won't have the
resources or experience he
was able to tap into this year. And
losing top recruit Michael Southall hurts as well, since he was projected
to get big minutes at the center position.
Essentially, the 2002 team will only go as far as the freshmen take
them. And even if there are
best-case scenarios for each of the freshmen, that probably still won't be
enough for a top-3 finish in the league.
That's partly because the Jackets will have no size outside of
frosh Schenscher and partly because of their absurdly youthful lineup.
Like UNC, they are a true mystery squad, capable of knocking off the
better teams in the league and also capable of finishing in last place.
The good news for Hewitt is that he'll have a chance to play the
way he prefers: an uptempo, pressing style.
3 of his 5 frosh are excellent athletes who can really run.
He may well employ all of them to trap and press on defense and run
on offense. Hewitt doesn't
mind using whatever depth his team possesses, going 9-deep last year.
Of course, he had a lot of experienced
players to rely on last year and brought the best out of them. Currently,
he only has 2 starters returning, and 3 other guys who played significant
minutes coming back. Of this
group, only point guard Tony Akins is of All-ACC caliber.
His talent and leadership will be crucial to Tech's success, and he
has certainly come a long way in his career.
He led the team in scoring (14.5) and had an impressive 42% mark
from three. Akins was also a
true point guard, averaging about 1.7 assists per turnover and leading his
team in assists. For Tech to
have a chance to excel, he needs to take his game a notch higher and
become a true go-to player.
Lewis and Lane put up virtually identical stats, with Lewis playing
about 10 minutes more a game and hence scoring a bit more (8.7 to 6.8 ppg).
Both shot 37% from three, while Lewis had a few more rebounds (4.5
to 2.4). Both players are
around 6-3, with Lewis being a tad quicker.
And both will likely start, giving Tech a three or four guard
starting lineup. Neither one
is a great talent at this point but both are perfectly solid, and I
expect their numbers to improve as they get more playing time.
But in an ideal situation, they'd be dependable bench players
rather than entrenched as starters. The
wild card at wing is Moore, who showed great potential as a frosh but who
sat out all but 6 games last year due to injury.
If he shows that he's fully recovered, then he will strongly
contend for a starting spot; otherwise, he'll be relied upon to contribute
off the bench.
In terms of returning inside muscle: there isn't any.
Well, there's strong and quick Brooks, but he has yet to display
the sort of skills that will earn him a starter's spot, but with so few
other players at his position, he will get important minutes.
Then there's Isenhour, perhaps the least talented big man in the
ACC since Florida State's Justin Mott.
He didn't demonstrate the capacity to do anything on the court
except foul (one every three minutes) and get in cheap shots.
He can't shoot, can't jump, can't block shots, is awful on the
boards (1 rebound a game) and generally is out there because Tech didn't
have any other big people. He
may be called upon a bit more this season with Jones' departure, but big
minutes for Isenhour would mean a painful season for Tech fans.
That concludes the "known quantity" section of this
preview. We now proceed on to
speculation about the rookies. All
told, Hewitt's first class received high marks from those in the know.
First and foremost is Nelson, a power forward in the Travis Watson
mold. He's 6-8 and 250, and
knows how to use his size to score inside.
He will almost certainly lead Tech in offensive rebounding, an area
where the Jackets were rather weak. In
fact, even with Jones sweeping the defensive backboards, Tech was dead
last in rebounding margin (-2.5). One
dreads to think what Tech's rebounding numbers might look like this year
without Jones. Nelson will be
a crucial part of Tech's plan at both ends of the court, and he must be
able to produce immediately. Schenscher,
on the other hand, is a true seven-footer who may take more time to
develop. That's because the
Australian is pretty thin (listed at 220) for his size, and may take a
while to get used to the physical nature of college basketball.
Another frosh who is likely to play a lot is Muhammad, a 6-6
skywalking type. Look for him
to fill the lanes and go hard to the hoop--not unlike Adam Hall of
Virginia. The other frosh
guards, Elder and Vasser, will also get a chance to play a lot but
probably won't start. Elder
is a good shooter with some
size (6-5), which may give him an edge.
Vasser is a multitalented
6-7 player who can handle the ball, drive and shoot.
At this point in his career, he may be a jack-of-all-trades and
master of none; but this makes him an ideal bench player, especially for a
system like Hewitt's.
Overall, this team will resemble a less talented version of
Virginia, with the exception
of Akins' superiority. Nelson
is a young Watson, Muhammad is a young Hall, and there are a host of other
players who all play roughly the same position.
The good news for those players is that Hewitt will likely try them
all, and often in the same game. Losing
a group of experienced
players will hurt team continuity, but the truth is that very few of them
possessed much talent--and Hewitt did a fine job in extracting every ounce
of it. In the end, I think
this team will struggle with the realities of inexperience and little
size. They'll put up some
points and will be able to challenge the best teams for part of the game,
but whenever Akins and Nelson are in foul trouble the team will have some
serious problems competing. And
while expectations will be reduced with such a
young team, the fact that Hewitt made the NCAA's last year will put
more pressure on this year's group. Like
UNC and to a much lesser extent Virginia, Georgia Tech's fate will lie in
how much of an impact their freshmen make. It's difficult to make
predictions for teams like that, but I tend to err on the side of
experience over youth. With
freshmen, you never know exactly
what you're going to get. C
Nelson
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