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2001-2002 ACC Preview |
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Rob's full preview will be posted according to the following schedule (in inverse order of last season's ACC standings): 9/29
- 2000-2001 ACC Predictions vs. Reality 2001 Round-Up:
It is distressing for a
coach to see that his team's best game (and overall play) came in December
and its worst game arrived in March.
Perhaps so distressing that he had to leave the program, but that
will be discussed below. Coming into the season, the Deacs felt good about
themselves after winning the NIT. Sure,
it was another season of average play, but it's well-known that teams
often bounce back after winning the NIT and get to the NCAA's, especially
if they bring a lot of players back.
And Wake returned their most
important personnel.
Wake's strengths were team
defense, experience, chemistry and physical play.
The team's main weakness was a lack of star power, the kind of
superstar Dave Odom had used to great effect to get his team over the hump
against the nation's elite. Well,
to paraphrase Rick Pitino, Tim Duncan
wasn't walking through the locker room door, and neither were Rodney
Rogers or Randolph Childress. Wake
had to make do with the erratic Robert O'Kelley (who was once good enough
to be ACC rookie of the year), a foul-prone Darius Songaila and a
too-young Josh Howard. The
biggest problems for Wake were a lack of a consistent playmaker and a true
center who could score in the low post.
Still, Wake's level of depth, smart play and good coaching always
made them a tough opponent.
Wake's chemistry
showed early on as they breezed through the early part of their schedule.
They had no problem with Mt. St. Mary's and Air Force, though they
did struggle on the road against tough mid-major Richmond.
An inspiring come-from-behind victory against a young Michigan team
was sandwiched between routine wins against Campbell and SC State.
Then came the true test: a big matchup with #3 Kansas in
Winston-Salem. The game was a
mismatch from the word go, as the Deacs hammered the Jayhawks in every
conceivable manner. Wake's
defense held Kansas 40 points under their average and earned a +17
advantage on the boards. The
game featured a career high for Howard, and the whole contest was a big
confidence boost for the Deacs.
They proceeded to rip
through the rest of their December schedule, mauling a good Georgia team
and ripping apart Radford and Navy--two excellent mid-major programs.
The other big December highlight was a road win over an extremely
tough Temple squad. Wake held
their first 11 foes under 40% in shooting and only gave up more than 60
points on four occasions. Their first ACC game was against top ten
Virginia, and it was no contest as they held a high-powered Hoo squad to
73 points. More impressively,
they scored virtually at will, with Songaila hitting 11 of 12 for 27
points. Wake was now
#4 in the country and looking like a real threat as people started to
invoke Tim Duncan's name.
Then came UNC.
The Heels' solid interior defense forced Wake to shoot from the
perimeter more than they would have liked, but the real problem was a
familiar one--quick foul trouble for Songaila.
Without him in there,
Brendan Haywood went crazy, and eventually dunked the winning shot that
came on a friendly bounce after a miss.
After Wake's 12-0 start, this loss would be the single biggest blow
to the team's confidence all season.
It started a patch where they lost 7 out of 10 games.
After an easy win over Florida State, they lost an overtime
heartbreaker to resurgent Georgia Tech.
Broderick Hicks had managed to tie the game
at the buzzer, but Tech controlled the extra period.
Wake was then thumped by a
Maryland team that couldn't shoot, but owned the offensive boards and won
with ease. Disturbingly, the
Deacs had yet to outrebound any of their ACC foes.
That streak ended with a tight win against Clemson.
They then went to Cameron and played Duke tough for about 30
minutes without Howard, but Duke went on a late three-point spree to blow
the game open. Awful shooting
from the guards then doomed Wake in an important interconference game
against Cincinnati--yet another overtime loss.
That loss knocked Wake out of the top ten, and they would never
manage to get back there the rest of the year.
Overtime was finally kind to
Wake when they beat a bad NC State team at home.
Once again, Wake did not shoot well, but they managed to win the
battle of the boards. The
Deacs then took another shot at two of the leading teams in the ACC, and
came up short both times. A
Virginia team that was tough to beat at home helped extend Wake's shooting
woes and won with relative ease, while UNC pulled out another narrow win
only after shooting 54%. That
was one of only three occasions where Wake let their opponent shoot that
high, but all three tellingly came in the last month or so of the season.
Wake rallied by winning 3 of
their next 4 games, including blowouts
against Georgia Tech (where the Deacs shot 50% and owned the
boards) and Clemson (where they shot 52%).
The loss came to a Maryland team that once again pushed them around
in the post, getting most of their points from offensive rebounds.
But Wake had a chance to assure at least a .500 season in the ACC
with a win over Duke on Senior Night.
In many respects, it was one of Wake's best games of the year.
They held a high-powered Duke offense to only 44% shooting and got
career performances from Rafael Vidaurreta
and Josh Shoemaker. After
blowing a 9-point lead, the much-maligned O'Kelley managed to tie the game
up with a long three after a series of well-placed screens freed him up.
He even managed to stop Jason Williams from driving on the
subsequent play. But Chris
Duhon cruelly hit an off- balance floater at the buzzer, and that shot
sucked the remaining life out of Wake.
Sure, they crushed an awful
NC State team the next week to get to 8-8 and assure themselves of an NCAA
tournament berth, but their postseason was as dreadful as it gets.
They laid a huge egg against Maryland in the ACC tourney, shooting
an anemic 32% and doing it in as disinterested a manner as is imaginable.
But that seemed like the model of perfection compared to their
humiliating NCAA loss to Butler. The
final margin was "only" 16 points against a tough mid-major
team, but the Bulldogs held leads of 30 and more against a Wake team that
looked like they had just met that morning--and weren't getting on very
well. Butler shot an absurd
52% and did whatever they wanted, while Wake was missing every kind of
shot possible. It was a
disturbing loss for both Wake and the conference, as many wags were
clucking over the ACC getting too many teams in the
tournament and pointed to this game as proof.
Dave Odom shocked everyone
by taking a job offer from South Carolina and leaving Wake behind.
Odom had not been offerred a contract extension and he could see
the writing on the wall. Without
a recruit at the Rogers/ Childress/Duncan level, he could no longer
challenge for the conference crown or make any NCAA noise.
And truthfully, recruits like Duncan and Rogers were flukes.
The reality is that it was very difficult to recruit for Wake
because of its size and academic rigor.
While Odom had carved out a nice career, he never had that one
breakout year in the NCAA tournament to get him true national notoriety.
And his difficulties with Loren Woods proved to be crippling in
retrospect--Wake has yet to find a big man of his talent level since he
left. Playing a dull,
walk-it-up style of ball didn't help either.
A lot of fans were starting to grumble about him after he no longer
seemed to be able to beat Duke or UNC, and so he took a good offer while
he still could.
Wake was not a bad team in
2001. It's just that
finishing the year 7-11 makes it seem like you are.
What frustrated fans is that the team didn't seem to get any better
as the year went on. The team
was efficient and workmanlike but lacked passion.
The players were inconsistent and struggled to find their roles.
And there was talent, but not at the level of
other ACC programs. All
of these factors pointed at Odom, who in
hindsighte must be regarded as a great coach in many respects.
Ultimately, he was unable to overcome Wake's difficulties in
recruiting and couldn't turn any of his current crop of players into true
stars. However, there is a
lot of talent and experience left on this squad.
Skip Prosser actually
has quite a bit to work with next year.
Team MVP: Josh Howard
Best Win: Kansas
Worst Loss: Butler
2002 Scouting Report:
Who's Leaving: G Robert O'Kelley, F Josh Shoemaker, C Rafael Vidaurreta
Who's Coming Back: G Craig Dawson, G Broderick Hicks, G Ervin Murray, F
Antwan Scott, F Darius Songaila, F Josh Howard, G AW Hamilton
Who's New: G Steve Lepore (transfer), Dshamal Schoetz (redshirt),
G Taron Downey, F Vytautas Danelius, F Jamal Levy
At this point, it's a great big "who knows?"
Dave Odom is gone and confidence is at an all-time low after the
beating they took at the
hands of Butler. The
negatives aside, they still have two of the best
players in the conference in Howard and Songaila, and an array of
solid, experienced
contributors. They still lack
a go-to star (imagine this team with
a Will Solomon!) or an imposing interior presence.
In fact, they may well lack
any interior presence. Prosser
might be well advised to go to an uptempo, three-guard lineup that either
slashes to the basket or uses a quick penetrate-and-pitch.
Such a scheme would best exploit the services of Howard, the team's
most talented player and athlete. Frankly,
Dave Odom's slow, plodding style of play probably turned off as many
potential recruits as Wake's small size or its tough academic standards.
Losing Vidaurreta and
Shoemaker will hurt Wake. Shoe
averaged 7.4 rpg and while Vidaurreta only averaged 3.6, he provided a big
body down low that could slow down other teams.
The sturdy Songaila will probably be forced to start at center.
He can certainly do some good work in there, averaging 5.9 rpg to
go along with his 13 ppg, but he's foul-prone enough as it is.
Being forced to guard the Baxters and Boozers of the league would
make it even harder for him to avoid foul trouble, and Wake really needs
him on the floor. If Prosser insists on staying with a halfcourt lineup,
he might start Schoetz, a lumbering redshirt who is a true seven-footer
but probably not quick or skilled enough to keep up with the rest of the
league. Still, if he absorbs
fouls that Songaila might have otherwise accumulated, then it'll be worth
keeping him in for 5 or 10 minutes a game.
I would probably start a true freshman, Danelius.
He's a sturdy 230 pounds and 6-8, so I think he'd do a nice job at
the PF position. He also
brings some serious offensive skills to the table and is a strong
candidate for ACC Rookie of the Year.
He is Lithuanian, which automatically brings to mind a picture of a
skilled, strong player who can shoot.
The other big man of note is Levy, a very skilled 6-9 forward.
His only real problem at this point is that he's only 177 pounds.
I do see him playing a lot, and I think he'll help with Wake's
offensive rebounding problem (dead last in the league).
He'll make an impact with his quickness, ability to run the floor
and his skill at hitting long jumpers.
He'll get muscled out a lot of times, but don't be surprised to see
him sneak in and get surprising blocks or tip-ins.
Still, his strength level isn't high enough to project him as a
starter.
The wing features Howard,
who had a breakout season for the Deacs in '01. In addition to leading
Wake in scoring at 13.6 ppg and hauling down 5.9 boards, he also led the
team in steals (58) and was second in blocks (32).
Howard hit a solid 39% of his threes, but he was best known as a
slasher with great leaping ability who could also handle the ball.
He was one of the few Wake players who could take his man off the
dribble and finish. His main
weakness at this point is that he's foul prone, getting
disqualified 4 times last year. An
uptempo system would bring nothing but positives for Howard's game; he
could become one of the league's best players.
Scott is his main backup, a player who can always score (6.8 ppg)
but who is suspect on defense. He
also has a tendency to drift at times.
But when he's motivated and interested, he can score in flurries.
The backcourt is very
crowded, which is a good thing because there isn't an overwhelming amount
of talent. The point position
has been a problem since Tony Rutland left.
Odom always preferred a combo guard-type player at point, the sort
of player who could penetrate a bit and shoot off
screens. The problem
is that the most recent batch of those sorts of players hasn't really
worked out that well as either playmakers or scorers.
Hicks is the better scorer, shooting an OK 38% from three and
getting a couple of assists a
game. Murray is a terrible
shooter (23% threes) who got nearly 3 assists a game and played better
defense. Neither was any
match for the elite point guards in the league, but both were reasonably
servicable. Downey is a
player in that scoring-guard mold, although I don't think he'll make
anyone forget Randolph Childress, Tony Rutland or even Charlie Harrison
right away. I suspect he may
have trouble getting minutes this year with the logjam at point.
The player who has the best
chance at a breakout year is Dawson.
His injury problems have slowed down his career, as has his
inconsistent playing time. But
he can hit threes (38%, but his form is better than his numbers) and take
it to the basket a bit. He
will almost certainly start and has a chance at big numbers if his shot's
improved. Back when Wake used
to have a great big man and a point guard who could penetrate-and-pitch,
they used to have slow snipers lurking that could hit threes all day long.
Rusty LaRue and Marc Blucas
come to mind here. Well, a
transfer from Northwestern named Steve Lepore could be that guy this
year--if Prosser still decides to slow it down.
If he goes to an uptempo game, Lepore may gather dust on the bench.
Speaking of gathering dust, Hamilton is a modestly gifted but
steady guard who may sneak in a minute or two during big games.
Wake's prognosis is
difficult to assess in 2002. A
new coach with a different system can sometimes rejuvenate a team used to
losing, or it could cause resentment among veteran players, especially
when that system is ill-matched
with the personnel at hand. Wake
has two legitimate stars that could start for virtually any team in the
league in Howard and Songaila. They have a potential breakout player in
Dawson and a promising rookie in Danelius.
Beyond that, the players they have are at the very least
experienced and not without some level of accomplishment.
There is some reasonable depth on the team, but not much
athleticism. Judging from
Wake's season last year, I
don't see them finishing any higher than fourth in 2002, and a sixth place
finish is not out of the question if the young talent on other teams
asserts itself. But if the
team picks up on the energy of the new coach, their older players improve
and their stars learn to stay out of foul trouble, then I could easily see
Wake making it back to the NCAA tournament--and perhaps even winning a
game this time. We'll know
more about Wake very early in the year, I suspect, when Prosser's initial
plans are established.
Projected
Starting Lineup: |
