The good news is that Duke is 6-0. The bad news, such as it is, is that despite Duke's
talent and experience, this is not a blow-you-out team.
With DeMarcus Nelson getting injured, it's not a team that's going to run a
lot either.
That said, Duke has done a nice job of
building its core players with some tough contests. Coach
K has always built his teams starting from his go-to players, then the role playing
starters, then the top reserves. After he's
found 7-8 guys he's happy with, only then will he consider going deeper into his bench. There have been times when starters have played
their way into inactivity (Greg Newton comes to mind) and other times when reserves who
never got off the bench worked their way into starting roles (Greg Koubek and Roshown
McLeod, to name two). As players develop in
practice, injuries occur or other players regress, Coach K isn't afraid to make his team
more fluid in terms of lineups.
I say this because there's still time for
some of the frosh to claim major minutes this season.
In evaluating the team, let's start there. Jamal Boykin is going to be a
good player one day for Duke. Right now, the
game is moving way too fast for him. He's
still used to being a post player on his high school team and has to figure out how to
adjust to being a wingman at this level. For
the first couple of months of this season, he simply has to concentrate on soaking up as
much information as he can. He has the build,
the enthusiasm and the energy to become a valuable player for Duke down the line. While I
see him as the last scholarship player off the bench at this point, don't be surprised to
see Coach K insert him into games when he thinks he's ready to make an impact. At that point, it will be in Jamal's hands to make
the right plays. As an aside, you have to love
this kid's attitude. It's not just his intensity--seeing him go nuts over Shelden
Williams' success shows what a good teammate he is. It
reminded me a bit of Nate James when he was a frosh.
A player who has the potential to get more
minutes soon is Eric Boateng. Duke's last couple of contests have been difficult ones in
terms of facing freaky athletes and mobile post scorers.
It's a world that's a bit out of Eric's range of experiences at this point,
and it showed during the brief stint he had against Indiana.
Boateng is used to playing against classic back-to-the-basket big men who
would try to back him down. Instead, IU's
Marco Killingsworth posted up briefly, put the ball on the deck, and easily spun around a
startled Boateng. The problem here was not
that Killingsworth was a greatly superior athlete, it was that Boateng didn't expect that
move and so didn't move his feet. Against a more traditional big man while playing Seton
Hall, Eric fared much better. He can rebound,
doesn't mind contact and did a nice job of catching the ball. Boateng doesn't have a bad touch from the foul
line, either. While I don't see him as a
regular part of the rotation this year, I do think he'll be brought in for special
situations, like when Williams & McRoberts are both in foul trouble.
Martynas Pocius' talent is simply tantalizing. His floor vision, aggressiveness and creativity are
tools that he brought with him into the program. Unfortunately,
an understanding of defense is not yet in his bag of tricks.
Happily, that can be taught. The
principles of Duke's defense are such that anticipation and thinking the game out several
moves ahead of time are critical to playing it well. You
don't necessarily have to be an elite athlete to be a good defender at Duke, you simply
have to know where to be on the court at all times. Duke's
defense can be as aggressive as it is because it relies on help-and-recover principles. If you're out of position because you're overplaying
a lane, then your teammate should be able to rotate over to cover for you. This kind of defense requires constant
communication, and this kind of talking is a new experience for young players. Pocius in particular is struggling with making
defensive reads, and as a result it's cost Duke baskets and him playing time. If you record the games, go back to when Pocius is
in the game and watch what he does defensively. Then
count how many times he loses his man, and you'll understand why he's not getting double
digit minutes yet. When he does master it, at
least to minimal standards, he's going to be a big difference-maker. His first step is remarkable, and it's the key to
his effectiveness going to the basket. Marty
is also quite unselfish, and loves to dish after penetrating. Duke couldn't afford to have him on the floor for
long stretches against elite opponents, but his energy was a nice spark against Drexel. With DeMarcus Nelson out, Duke doesn't have a
finisher--and Pocius could fill that role. Stay
tuned.
Necessity has forced Greg Paulus to grow up a
little quicker than expected. Greg got off to a very slow start in the preseason, though
one could see the occasional flash here and there. It
just took him a few weeks to get comfortable with his new teammates and the
responsibilities of being a Duke point guard. Some
like to compare him to Bobby Hurley, but I seem him as a cross between Steve Blake and
Chris Corchiani. Like Blake, Paulus is tough
& strong, and a little chippy. He doesn't
mind jumping into the post for a rebound, and his hand strength gripping the ball reveals
the time he spent as a quarterback. Like
Corchiani, he's a pass-first point guard with superior floor vision. Paulus doesn't mind scoring, and it was his role as
a high school player and on his AAU team. He's
hit the open threes he's taken (good for 54%), though he has taken a questionable shot or
two. Greg's strength also allows him to get to
the hoop, and makes up for a lack of overall quickness. Defensively, he's really improved. Like Blake, he's learning to use his wingspan to
annoy his man and body him up. Greg isn't
quick enough to keep up with most opponents, so he must stay in front of them, or else
funnel them to Shelden Williams for a block. Speaking
of Shelden, Greg is feeding him steadily in the post, using a nice angle of attack. He's also finding Redick whenever possible. It's wise for a frosh to keep his seniors happy. In return, both seniors have accepted him and trust
him, and are allowing him to make mistakes. Right
now, Greg must learn to value the ball, continue to play solid off-ball defense, and hit
those open shots.
Josh McRoberts is doing some nice things as a
frosh, but has barely begun to demonstrate what he can do.
Right now, he's still trying to figure out where he fits in. It's an adjustment for him not to be his team's #1
option on offense, though he is an excellent passer. Certainly, his teammates are looking
for him to be successful, but he's not always ready for their passes. In particular, he
and Williams need to communicate better. Like
Pocius and Paulus, I love McRoberts' aggressiveness. He's
looking to dunk everything, block every shot and grab every rebound. His power, quickness and vertical make him a unique
weapon, especially when you throw in his ballhandling and passing. His shot is a work in progress, however. In general, he's so aggressive that he tends to be
in a hurry and doesn't use enough touch. That
jump hook he had against Indiana on the game's first possession is an example of what he
needs to continue to do. Free throws are
another area where he needs improvement, because he will be going to the line. Defense has been another issue. He's biting on too many fakes and isn't moving his
feet enough, but he is at least aggressive. His
late-game block against Indiana was a great play, considering his earlier foul trouble.
Duke has played some unusual opponents early
on. Boston U played 4 guards and spread the
floor, a classic attack used by teams that want to exploit Duke's overplaying of lanes. Indiana did something similar, surrounding Marco
Killingsworth with 4 wings. The difference in
these two games was that BU didn't have a post who could score one-on-one. Duke's
defensive style was a bit different against both foes.
With BU, Duke actively went after passing lanes and tried to force
turnovers, because BU was more likely to drive and slash than spot up for threes. With IU,
the goal was to extend the defense using everyone except Shelden, and prevent the Hoosiers
from attempting threes. Duke wasn't doing as
much switching to force mismatches as they usually do, and so weren't looking to disrupt
passing lanes as much. Instead, they left
Shelden to deal with Killingsworth. He avoid
going after his shots and made him try to turn around and score--which he did, to his
credit. In the endgame, Williams' conditioning
told, because Killingsworth was exhausted and Williams dominated him.
Memphis had superior athletes, but Duke found
ways of turning that against them. Proper
defensive positioning and discipline overcame some skilled and explosive athletes. Memphis used a philosophy similar to Duke's against
Indiana defensively--make Shelden Williams beat you and shut down Redick. Rodney Carney, a
long-armed and relentless player, face-guarded Redick in the second half and blanked him. But the succession of posts that John Calipari sent
against Williams couldn't slow him down or tire him out.
Duke didn't want to double-team Killingsworth because IU had so many lethal
shooters, but I was surprised that Calipari didn't try to make Lee Melchionni beat his
team.
Drexel was another interesting team. The used solid quickness and skilled perimeter
players to generate all sorts of good shots. Their
defense was sticky and applied a lot of pressure. Davidson
had a couple of good plaeyrs who ket things close, but didn't have enough talent to really
hang. It was hard to evaluate Seton Hall,
because they played so poorly and Duke played so well against them. I suspect that the matchups were not in their
favor, and Duke exploited that to the nth degree.
Returning to player evaluation, let's look at Lee
Melchionni. A jack-of-all-trades throughout
his career, he became an efficient player last season, along with being a clutch shooter. One had the sense that he was feeling his oats a
bit too much in the early season, and took too many bad shots. When they weren't going in, it started to affect
his confidence a bit. Shooting 38% from the field and 27% from three is not going to cut
it, and he simply has to stop rushing shots. He's
doing well in other areas--he's over 4 rpg, which is remarkable considering that he's not
big, strong or quick. He simply sticks his
nose in and grabs the ball. Lee is making good
decisions with the ball, only turning it over 4 times.
There's a lot on Lee's shoulders as a sub, especially since he's often
coming in at power forward. As long as he
stays within himself and takes his time, his numbers will go up. The Indiana game was a hopeful sign, because he hit
some big shots.
One player projected to be a potential third
scorer was DeMarcus Nelson. Markie was playing some solid hoop before he got hurt. Everyone will remember that one-handed lob dunk
that he threw down against Seton Hall, but one should also consider his defense (he leads
the team in steals). He was really missed
against both Memphis and Indiana. Happily, he will be coming back in late January, so
he'll have time to get his legs back before the postseason begins.
Nelson was considered Duke's best all-around
athlete. Its quickest player is still Sean
Dockery. Dock has really stepped up his
playmaking, with 3.5 apg. That's for a team that doesn't have a lot of assists overall; he
and Paulus combine for over half of the team's dishes.
More importantly, he's really valuing the ball, with a 3:1 assist/turnover
ratio. His defense is as strong s ever; in the
waning moments of the Indiana game, he was all over the place, tipping balls. The big
problem for Dockery is that he's not hitting open shots.
He's only hitting 38% from the field and an anemic 21% from the bonus
stripe. Dock did hit a big shot late in the Memphis game, but there have been many times
when Duke could have put away an opponent if Sean had only hit an open shot, and instead
had to struggle. Like Lee, Sean's stroke
looked great in preseason, but a few misses have hurt his confidence and he's now forcing
shots. He simply needs to relax, and perhaps
take a few more mid-range jumpers to establish a rhythm.
That brings us to Duke's two stars. After a slow start, Shelden Williams is having
another dominant season. 18 ppg, 8.5 ppg and
3.5 bpg are solid figures, and I expect them to get even better. Some teams used a zone to take Shelden out of the
game a bit, and he also had some trouble overcoming a foot injury. But he showed up in a
big way against Memphis, abusing every big man sent at him. Duke wisely got him the ball
early and often, but it was two unplanned plays that saved the game. After Memphis tied
the game, Shelden tipped in a Dockery miss to put Duke ahead. When Melchionni missed 2 potentially game-clinching
foul shots, Shelden tipped the rebound out to Dockery.
Shelden is leading the team in free throw attempts, but he needs to shoot a
bit better than 64%. I loved the rope-a-dope
strategy against Indiana, where he stayed out of foul trouble and then really went after
Killingsworth down the stretch. The fact that Redick and Williams didn't panic and coolly
looked for each other was a sign of their maturity.
JJ Redick is having a season where he's
maximizing his efficiency on every possession. He
worked hard on developing his off-the-dribble game, and while that education wasn't always
pretty, it's paid off this year. It's telling
that the game-breaking play in the IU game involved him splitting the defense and getting
a three point play. It's clear that he's been
taught an efficient jump stop, an underrated move in basketball that Duke guards have been
using for years. It's a great way for a guard
whose first step isn't blindingly quick to get in the lane, freeze the defense, and then
make a decision. As a result, JJ's shooting is
at a fantastic 51% overall and 49% from three. He's
going to the line regularly (and I'm not too worried about a miss here or there) and even
dishing a couple of assists per game. In
particular, he and Shelden are really clicking as a combo.
JJ also likes to get the ball to his other teammates; that three that Dock
hit vs Memphis came off a Redick pass.
Returning to an earlier theme, it's clear
that Redick and Williams are firmly established building blocks. Paulus has proven himself under pressure. Right now, it's time to build up McRoberts,
Melchionni and Dockery. They need some
confidence boosting breakout games. Once those
three are up to speed, Duke needs Pocius and Boateng to help. Look for what happens after winter break; the
players have nothing but practice before classes start, and this is when a lot of
breakthroughs are made. Right now, the team is winning because they're getting the ball to
its 2 best players, and they're holding opponents to 57 ppg , on 40% shooting (and just
21% from three). There are too many turnovers
(73, compared to 87 assists) and Duke's actually being outrebounded at the moment by a .5
margin. There's a lot of work still left to do
and lessons to be learned (Texas should be an interesting challenge), but that defensive
base will keep Duke in every game. How
explosive Duke can become rests with its role players.
Rob's Archive