 2003
Record: 25-6, 13-3, NCAA 2nd Round
2003
Round-Up:
What a year for the Deacs! Skip Prosser continued to revitalize the Wake Forest program by winning their first
regular season title since 1995 and their first outright title in 41 years.
Prosser's strategy of recruiting North Carolina high school talent has really paid off,
with four out of his five frosh last year hailing from the Old North State and three of
the four from the current crop with the same origins. Beating out Duke and Maryland
for first place and going 5-1 against the other Big Four teams in the regular season were
high watermarks for a program that has long battled to get out of the shadow of the other
NC programs. The Deacs battled through youth, injury and shooting woes to win the
league, relying on depth, defense and rebounding, along with the remarkable individual
talents of ACC Player of the Year Josh Howard. If there was a disquieting note to
the year, it came when the Deacs flamed out of the ACC and NCAA Tournaments. NC
State, a team that Deacs had swept, beat them in the ACC's while an Auburn squad (whose
very presence in the tourney was questioned after a mediocre year) upset them in the
second round of the NCAA's. Still, with a great recruiting class coming in and a lot
of talent returning, the future is bright for the Deacs.
Wake
Forest won the first ten games of the season, beating top 25 Wisconsin, Temple and St
John's along the way. Howard dropped 31 on the Badgers, while the Deacs had four
players in double figures in the other two wins. Then came a dose of reality at the
hands of nemesis Duke, a team they hadn't beaten since the Tim Duncan era (January 1997,
to be precise). Wake only managed a total of 55 points (their lowest output all
year) and lost Justin Gray to an injury. The Deacs responded by pummelling Maryland
on the boards and getting to the foul line 42 times in a nine point win. This was
the game that established Wake as a force to be reckoned with in the ACC. After
beating Georgia Tech, they somehow lost to a flaky Virginia team, letting them shoot
nearly 50% from three.
Wake
righted itself with routine wins over FSU and Clemson, and then narrowly defeated UNC on
the road. UNC's play was inspired but bettered by the fabulous Howard, who scored 32
points and made all the big plays down the stretch. Howard then dominated NC State
en route to an easy home victory with a double-double as the Deacs once again had a big
advantage on the boards. A loss to a very tough Marquette team meant that they had
to beat Duke to reclaim their national reputation. What followed was a gut-wrenching
double OT epic of a game that saw five Duke players and three Wake players foul out
(including Howard). Justin Gray was the hero of the day, returning from his injury
and making a number of crucial shots.
An
emotionally drained Wake team was no match for Maryland on the road in their next game,
but they did rebound to win their last six games of the year to clinch the title.
That included an inexplicably close game at home against Virginia and a tough road win
versus NC State where Howard scored 28 and 27 points, respectively. Then came the
ACC Tournament. Wake was very lucky to survive a first round scare with Florida State, a
team that had played them tightly in Tallahassee. Howard struggled here but did just
enough to lead his team. Howard was a miserable 6-21 from the field against NC State
as the Deacs couldn't stop Julius Hodge and his teammates from pulling the upset.
Howard
had to be feeling some exhaustion as he went into the NCCA's. He was just 4-11 from
the field for 12 points as Wake almost lost to East Tennessee State in the first round, as
guard Tim Smith nearly beat the Deacs single-handedly. Wake was getting sloppier and
sloppier, and that cost them against Auburn. Howard was 4-10 in this game and had 7
turnovers, but the rest of the starters combined for just 20 points. Only Justin
Gray kept the team in the game with 26 points. Still, it wasn't enough, as Auburn
pulled the upset.
 Wake wound up relying on Howard a bit
too much, but this was understandable given the team's youth. The Deacs were a team
that relied on strength and driving to the basket for their scoring, and wound up being
3rd best in the ACC in scoring and FG%. Hitting 75% of their 813 free throw attempts
was a huge factor, one that offset their poor percentage from three (34% as a team, 8th in
the ACC). The Deacs hit more free throws (611) than their opponents even attempted
(589), a sure sign that a team is going hard to the basket. Wake also dominated
opponents with hard-nosed defense (3rd best in the league in scoring, FG% and 3FG%) and
rebounding (best in the ACC and the nation at +9.6 per game). Despite a fine year
from point Taron Downey, the Deacs turned the ball over too much (-1.65, 8th in the ACC)
and simply didn't get enough easy baskets in transition. It's clear that while Skip
Prosser returns a lot of impressive parts, there's still plenty of work to do, especially
since the team must replace Howard's scoring. Fortunately for the Deacs, it looks
like he's recruited players to keep his program at a very high level.
Team MVP: Josh Howard
Best
Wins: Duke, Maryland, @ Wisconsin
Worst
Loss: @ Virginia, Auburn
2004
Scouting Report:
Who's
Leaving: G Steve Lepore (2.6 ppg, 36% threes), G TJ Little, G John Buck, F Josh
Howard (19.5 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 48 blocks, 37% threes), C Dshamal Schoetz (1.3 ppg)
Who's
Coming Back: G Taron Downey (10.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 130 assists), G Justin Gray (12.7 ppg, 3.6
ppg, 80 assists), G Alan Williams (2.2 ppg), W Richard Joyce (1.8 ppg), W Trent Strickland
(4.3 ppg, 1.9 rpg), F Jamaal Levy (7.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 30 blocks), F Vytas Danelius (12.3
ppg, 7.5 rpg, 38% threes), F Chris Ellis (2.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg), C Eric Williams (8.7 ppg, 4.1
rpg, 55% FG)
Who's
New: G Chris Paul (#9), G Jeremy Ingram (#55), F Todd Hendley (#128), C Kyle Visser (#162)
 The only real loss for the
Deacs is Howard, who was the heart and soul of his team. Howard did it all for Wake,
leading the squad in scoring, FG, FGA, threes, FT, FTA, rebounds, blocks and steals.
He even averaged a couple of assists a game. He harnessed his considerable athletic
abilities and became a complete player and a leader. Despite all of Wake's returning
talent and its quite promising freshman class, replacing Howard will be such a chore that
I can only put the Deacs as high as third in the league--though they certainly have the
potential to better that.
Like
Maryland, Wake has a lot of talent but may not have a true star. Players like Chris Paul
and Eric Williams have the potential to reach this level, but it may take time.
While Wake had a great record, Howard carried them in all the close games, doing whatever
was necessary to win. Not only do I question whether there's someone on the squad who can
do that right now, Howard's absence has left a hole at wing that may be tough to fill with
the players on this roster. There really isn't a strong, quick slasher who can go to
the hole the way that Howard did. The good news for Wake is that its talented soph
class should be better, and there are a couple of frosh who will help right away.
Wake will be a much more balanced team, which means that even though they might not have a
Howard who can win you some close games, they will have a roster that won't break down
when that superstar doesn't come through.
Starting in the frontcourt, one must begin with powerful center Eric Williams. The
NC native is slightly undersized at 6-9, but his 275 pound bulk and long arms make up for
that. The best thing about him are his nimble feet, which give him a level of
agility that belies his girth. He is a fantastic post scorer and solid defender
whose greatest flaw is his propensity for fouling. This hurt his rebounding (way too
low at 4.1 rpg) and caused him to foul out five times despite playing just 20 minutes a
game. If Williams can play with a bit more control and works on his stamina, he
could be the most unstoppable post player in the league. This would give Wake a
significant edge over their opponents. Coming off the bench will be Chris Ellis,
another big player (6-9, 265) who was efficient in the post and a physical presence.
While not a great player, he is perfectly suited to come off the bench at 4 or 5.
At
power forward, junior leader Vytas Danelius will be one of the team's most important players. One of those
basketball-playing Lithuanians, Danelius proved in his first couple of seasons that the
Baltic Sea country produces the best hoops players per capita in the world. Danelius
can face up, score with his back to the basket, hit threes (38%, best on the team), hit
free throws (78%) and rebound. He's not a great athlete nor someone who will
overwhelm you with any one of his skills, but he makes a perfect complementary
player. His nasty streak should make him a good leader as well. There are two
frosh who could also contribute a bit. Todd Hendley is a skinny (6-9, 213) player who can
fit in at either forward slot. Right now, he doesn't offer anything that the other
forwards don't already contribute, and so is probably a year away from really
contributing. Kyle Visser is also on the svelte side (6-11, 224) but is apparently
still growing. He's a true low-post scorer, and might be able to give Wake some
different looks down low if he's ready to handle the big beef in the post. Again,
this is a player whose best days in the program are probably down the road, though one
never knows.
Wing is
a bit of a question mark at the moment. Jamaal Levy will no doubt be the starter
thanks to his experience, but he will need to work on his ballhandling and shooting (28%)
to become a truly effective wing. He is a great defender, as his size (6-9) and
quickness allow him to shut down virtually any kind of perimeter players. Like the
rest of the starters, he will have to provide more offense on a consistent basis. Like at
most positions, the Deacs have a number of players who can help out here. Trent
Strickland will likely see a few more minutes this year. He can slash a bit and get to the
foul line, though he's not nearly as as skilled or tough as Howard was. Still, there
is potential here and he'll have a chance to show it. Also meriting some
consideration is soph Richard Joyce, the only frosh who was pretty much nailed to the
bench last year. It should be noted that he was originally a Dave Odom recruit.
Wake's
backcourt will be the ultimate key to its fate this season. With three excellent
guards, the Deacs have a chance to be a great team once again if everyone meshes
well. Starting with junior Taron Downey, a likely team leader at point, Wake has a
tough, reliable player who led the team in minutes (34 a game!). Downey is guttier
than he is talented, with modest shooting (34% from three, 37% overall) and assist to
turnover (1.7:1) numbers. He might be challenged for the starting job by superfrosh
Chris Paul, who is a true point, a leader, a good shooter and a tough defender. He
will probably start at one of the guard slots. Also getting consideration is the
ultra-tough Justin Gray, the man who played through a broken jaw and its associated weight
loss with a good deal of grit. Gray is another player whose shooting numbers need to
improve (31% from three, 39% overall). When the guards were on last year, Wake was
hard to beat. When they struggled, it all fell on Howard's shoulders to rescue the
team. Wake can't afford to do that this year.
Fortunately for Wake, Paul is exactly the kind of player who should not only not cause
chemistry problems in trying to fit in, he will make everyone better. He will get
better shots for the post players and find both Gray and Downey when they're open. I
suspect his scoring numbers will be relatively modest (perhaps 8-10 ppg), but only because
he will be concentrating on getting the ball to everyone else in the right spots, while
hounding opposing ballhandlers. On a team that will need to emphasize a gestalt
approach to the game this year rather than focusing on a singular star talent, Paul is the
perfect catlyst for making this happen.
Wake
Forest will certainly have a legitimate chance at another ACC first place finish.
They lack experience, with no notable seniors, and a proven big-time star. The Deacs
must prove right away that they can beat good teams in close games without Josh
Howard. Young players must step up quickly and shore up weaknesses. Returnees
must demonstrate that they can put up a lot of points. Wake must take better care of
the ball, improve their shooting and find ways to get easy baskets. Chris Paul could
be the piece of the puzzle that fixes all of these weaknesses--if he can prove himself in
a league filled with great point guards. If he's as good as advertised and the rest
of the team improves, there's no telling what Wake Forest could accomplish.
Projected Starting Lineup: G Paul, G Gray, F Levy, F Danelius, C Williams
Strength of Schedule: 1.23
Marquee
Matchups: Memphis, Indiana, @ Texas, Cincinnati
Mid-Majors: Richmond
Low-Majors: @ Yale, @ SMU, New Mexico, Brown
Tune-Ups: Elon, NC A&T
Comments: Wake has put together a schedule that is the best in the ACC,
where even the lower rated teams on it should be decent challenges. Admittedly, Elon &
NC A&T are awful teams, but that's pretty much about it as far as cupcakes go.
Memphis was a good team last year and will likely be a top-25 presence this year, thanks
to an experienced backcourt. Indiana has a ton of talent, led by sharpshooter Bracey
Wright. Even without TJ Ford, Final Four team Texas will still be a load with their
powerful frontcourt and experience. Cincinnati, who will be playing a couple of ACC
teams this year, will be another significant test. That's four top-25 non-conference
teams, one on the road.
That
alone would be enough for high marks on their schedule. Wake doesn't stop there,
going up against perennial giant-killer Richmond and going on the road against top 200
low-majors like Yale and SMU. New Mexico is a good program that's fallen on hard
times but still finished in the RPI's top 200, while Brown is another good Ivy League
program. There's no question that Wake will be ready for ACC and NCAA competition.
Rob Clough's Other ACC Previews:
#4 - NC State
#5 - Maryland
#6 - Florida State
#7 - Virginia
#8 - Georgia Tech
#9 - Clemson
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