 2003
Record: 18-13, 9-7 ACC, NCAA Tournament 1st Round
2003 Round-Up:
2003 was another edition of the
rollercoaster ride that is NC State basketball under coach Herb Sendek. In the end, the Wolfpack made it back to the NCAA
Tournament, beating most of the teams they should have and losing to most of the teams
that were better than they were. NC State was
just 2-9 against ranked teams, but those two wins (Duke and Wake Forest) are what earned
them an NCAA bid despite having 12 regular season losses. The Pack were handicapped on
offense thanks to an injury to forward Ilian Evtimov. Without
him in the lineup, their offense was often stale and predictable, relying too much on the
three point shot. The team had little size,
almost no inside production and no real point guard. Despite
all this, State had a tenacity and swagger that enabled them to hang in against most
opponents. This was personified in the form
of wing Julius Hodge, a feisty competitor who was at his best when his team really needed
him.
State began the year with five straight wins
against unremarkable competition, and then faced Gonzaga. This
loss
established a pattern that would recur in many of their losses: State couldn't box out
another team and prevent them from getting offensive boards, while the Pack shot poorly. The Zags had an insane 61 rebounds, 25 offensive,
while the Pack shot 27% from the field and took 35 threes. NC
State finished dead last in the ACC in FG% defense, but this is a misleading stat. The Pack actually played very good defense, but
the 334 offensive rebounds State gave up led to a lot of easy second shot opportunities. NCSU did play bad defense in their next loss
against UMASS, allowing the Minutemen to get to the line again and again.
After righting themselves at home against
Virginia, State got blown out on the road against a Georgia Tech team that missed the
NCAA's. Tech was beaten on the boards, shot
40% for the game and allowed Tech to shoot 58%. NCSU looked inexplicably sluggish at both
ends of the floor, and things didn't get any better in a humiliating home loss against
Boston College. The Pack were dominated inside and out by a team that was average at best.
The team stood at 8-4 with only one decent victory to their credit and had to start
playing more efficiently.
Things turned around against their archrivals.
After picking up their first road victory against FSU, the Pack beat Duke in a spirited
contest. The Pack held Duke to 37% shooting and shot 50% themselves, overcoming another
poor rebounding effort. NCSU then beat UNC in
Raleigh, with Hodge scoring 30 points. State
had pretty much settled on a 7-man rotation by this point, with Hodge, Crawford, Sherrill,
Powell and Melvin all playing big minutes, Watkins acting as designated sub, and Bennerman
getting spot minutes. This made the
productivity of their starters all the more crucial.
State followed those big wins with consistent
inconsistency. Their longest winning streak
the rest of the year was 2 games (and that only happened in the ACC Tournament). Their longest losing streak was also two games. The big wins at home were followed by a road
thumping at Maryland. State recovered at home to crush Clemson, but then dropped two more
road games in a row. Wake handled them easily
in Winston-Salem, while Virginia came back from a 9-point deficit to snap a losing streak
against NCSU. A solid win against Georgia
Tech was mitigated by a road thumping against Temple. On
the year, State was just 3-7 on the road.
 After losing to Duke in Durham, State picked up a
big victory in Chapel Hill against UNC. Against
a team with even less size than they possessed, the Pack outboarded them by 15 while
Sherrill and Hodge bombed away. Though State
dropped games against Maryland and Wake down the stretch, the games became tighter and
better played. The team was starting to act
like a unit. This carried over into the ACC
Tournament, where the Pack narrowly dispatched a nothing-to-lose Georgia Tech team. Then
came another shot at Wake Forest, against whom State had blown an 11 point lead. Hodge was brilliant with 31 points as the Pack
controlled Wake star Josh Howard. Then came
an ACC finals rematch against Duke. The Pack
were in full control of this game until Duke guard JJ Redick went crazy, erasing a 15
point lead with his shooting. It was a
disappointing end, but the effort and the win over Wake got them into the NCAA's.
They didn't last long, losing to a solid Cal squad
at the last second. Still, NC State went to a second consecutive NCAA tournament,
something they hadn't been able to accomplish since the early 90's. They weren't great at anything in particular, but
tended to play well because the team was so strangely built. Without a true inside presence, Sendek used five
guys who could run, handle, pass and shoot. Even
the ostensible power forward Melvin was well known for firing up threes. Possessing a team filled with good athletes, the
Pack were able to get away with this all year long. The
more the team played together, the more efficient they became on offense, winding up #2 in
the conference in FG%. For a team that got
few easy baskets, this was remarkable. While
the Pack turned themselves into an ACC contender once again, they showed that they're
still a few pieces away from being a national power.
Team MVP: Julius Hodge
Best Wins: Duke, Wake Forest
Worst Losses: UMASS, @ Temple
2004 Scouting Report:
Who's Leaving: F Josh Powell (12.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg,
41 blocks), G Clifford Crawford (9.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 131 assists), G Justin Flatt
Who's Coming Back: G Scooter Sherrill (10.5 ppg,
2.7 rpg), G Dominick Mejia (1.9 ppg), G Will Roach (0.9 ppg), W Julius Hodge (17.7 ppg,
6.1 rpg, 109 assists), W Cameron Bennerman (2.3 ppg), F Ilian Evtimov (7.1 ppg, 2.9
rpg-2002 stats), F Levi Watkins (5.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Marcus Melvin (12.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg), C
Jordan Collins (1.4 ppg, 1 rpg)
Who's New: G Mike O'Donnell (#159), G Engin Atsur,
C Adam Simons (redshirt frosh)
NC suffered two significant losses. The first, guard Clifford Crawford, was expected
since he completed his eligibility.
Sendek recruited a couple of guards to
replace him. The second, forward Josh Powell,
was not. Powell went pro despite having every
person in the know tell him that he wasn't ready for the big time. Sure enough, he wound up undrafted, without any
guarantees of making a team. His departure
cripples the Pack, because he was State's most athletic player, best offensive rebounder,
and most efficient scorer. Shooting 57% on
the year, he got plenty of baskets on dunks, tip-ins and otherwise attacking the rim. On a team without an inside presence, he also
blocked an impressive 41 shots, thanks mostly to his impressive hops. Powell would have been one of four returning
double-digit scorers for the Pack, but now State will have to dig a little deeper to find
more offense and rebounding. Losing Crawford
doesn't help matters either. He was the
team's best semblance of a point guard (he's a natural combo guard), leading the team in
assists and steals. He was also a credible
three point shooter (35%) and another efficient offensive player, hitting 52% of his
shots. Most importantly, Crawford was State's
best defender, making the conference All-Defensive team. State
will mostly likely have to switch tactics once again with those two gone.
Powell's leaping ability and aggressiveness made
up for his lack of size. The Pack don't have
anyone on their roster to compensate in those areas, so instead they must try to exploit
some of their depth. Thus, you might see
center Jordan Collins get a long look inside. A
tall 6-10, he has battled weight problems and stamina issues throughout his entire career.
He's slimmed down to about 230 and so might
be ready to contribute. Watkins had a very
tough time adjusting to his first real year of competition and has had to deal with
injuries, but the opportunity will be there to play as well. He is yet another Pack player who can bust threes,
hitting 30-99 in 2003. Another option might
be 6-11 redshirt frosh Adam "Coach G's stepson" Simons. He was regarded as a project player and is
certainly no banger, but he can shoot and bulked up a bit last year. State has a few options inside, but it's clear that
they will struggle with post defense and rebounding, unless one of the above players has
an unexpected star turn.
Most likely, State will put out a smaller but
highly skilled starting lineup. The return of
Evtimov is a huge plus for the Pack, because his floor vision makes everyone on the court
better. This is a kid who can shoot and pass
and possesses a fine understanding of spacing. He
doesn't have the length or hops of the other players, but he's a perfect five in a
Princeton-style attack. Don't be shocked to
see him start at center, but move out from the basket as State inverts posts and guards. While Melvin will still take plenty of jumpers, he
will be expected to help out inside a bit more. For
the Pack to be successful, he needs to raise his 5.8 rpg average.
Even without Powell, I expect State to be an NCAA
team and finish in the league's top four. The
main reason that I would pick them over teams like Maryland and FSU is that in basketball,
one player can make a huge difference. For NC
State, that player is Julius Hodge. My
projected ACC player of the year, Hodge is only a consistent jumper away from being a true
great. He already does everything else for
his team: defend, take big shots, lead, hit free throws (82%), rebound (he led the team!),
pass (second on the team), block shots (second on the team with 23), etc. If he can improve his 33% mark from three, expect
to see his scoring average jump over 20 ppg. Hodge
is very comfortable in State's system and with his teammates, and I think he can become a
dominant player this year. While Hodge alone won't make up for State's other shortcomings,
his presence will be crucial in close games.
 Also poised for a big year is Melvin, a Sam
Perkins-like shooting forward who needs to spend a bit more time in the post this year.
His free throw attempts (about half as many as Hodge) also need to increase. A player who really emerged last year after a
couple of disappointing seasons was Sherrill, who proved to be the team's best shooter. Scooter always could light it up from outside, but
his defensive deficiencies kept him on the bench. He
improved enough in that area to play over 33 minutes a game and shoot 40% from three. The nicely-spaced offense that State uses gave him
plenty of wide-open opportunities, and the return of the slick-passing Evtimov should give
him even more. A potential replacement for
Powell in the athleticism department could be Cam Bennerman. A superb leaper, nearly half of his 36 rebounds
were offensive, many on stickback slams. While
he's not going to defend bigger players, I would order him to hit the offensive boards on
every possession, because his quickness and hops could help State make up for their other
shortcomings.
I think both newcomers will help NC State. Turkish player Atsur is a combo guard who lit up
the World Junior Championships, averaging 24 ppg against some very good competition. He can hit the three, pass and drive and will be a
perfect replacement for Crawford. In an
offense where pretty much everyone has to pass and handle the ball to some extent, there
will be a lot less pressure on him to be a typical starting point guard. If he struggles
anywhere, it will be on the defensive end, typically a weakness for most European players.
O'Donnell is a lightly-regarded guard who
played quite well over the summer and may surprise some with his toughness and passing
ability. He will be competing with soph Mejia
for playing time at backup point. Both Atsur
and O'Donnell are skilled players who are not quite as athletic as the ACC's best. It'll be up to Sendek to hide these weaknesses as
much as he can.
State would be best off putting their five best
players on the floor rather than struggle with a more traditional lineup. Going small will give them some matchup edges on
offense, especially if they are patient with the ball and get the best shots available. They may be in trouble on defense and especially on
the boards, and will have to take extra care of the ball so as not to give opponents any
more opportunities. NC State will have to
rely on their offense to get wins, which means that in order for this strategy to be
successful, they will need at least one player to be a competent post scorer to help
balance their scoring. That would make Hodge,
Sherrill and Atsur much more effective and make the Pack very difficult to guard. As a team, NC State really came together late in
the season. The team needs to maintain that
momentum instead of falling prey to a slow start like last year's team, and will need to
have a few pleasant surprises emerge. Luckily
for the Pack, having Hodge around means that they can beat anyone on any given night.
Projected Starting Lineup: G Atsur, G Sherrill, G
Hodge, F Melvin, F Evtimov
Strength of Schedule: .77
Marquee Matchups: Brigham Young
Mid-Majors: @ Michigan, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, @
South Carolina, UNC-Wilmington, @ Boston College
Low-Majors: UNC-Asheville, Florida A&M,
Hartford, Washington
Tune-Ups: Howard
Comments: This
schedule was ingeniously put together by someone who has an intimate understanding of the
RPI ratings. It's completely lacking in any
powerhouse teams; BYU and perhaps Michigan are the only teams with a legitimate chance at
the top 25 this year. In spite of this, it's
a strong schedule because it's loaded in the middle and has very few true patsies on it. BYU is an experienced club that has NCAA
experience, size and depth. Wisconsin-Milwaukee
was an NCAA club that returns an excellent scorer in Dylan Page. South Carolina is playing a number of ACC teams
this year and could be Dave Odom's best Columbia club yet. Future
ACC foe Boston College will test State's post defense with top forward Craig Forth, but
will miss scorers Ryan Sidney and Troy Bell. UNC-Wilmington
had Maryland beaten in the NCAA tourney before the Terps hit a buzzer-beater. The Seahawks will be missing all-time leading
scorer Brett Blizzard but have a soph named John Goldsberry who will be outstanding. Tommy
Amaker's Michigan club will be eligible for the NCAA tournament and will be led by superb
guard Daniel Horton. After a rough start, the
Wolverines had a great regular season and return four starters.
Further down, UNC-Asheville won the Big South
championship and beat Texas Southern in the first round of the NCAA's. FAMU was one of the better teams in the
surprisingly competitive MEAC last year. Hartford
is a rising America East team while Washington is poised to improve a great deal this
year. All of these teams were in the RPI's
top 200, and most of them will likely be there in 2004 as well. If State can sweep their nonconference foes (or
suffer no more than a loss or two) and then go 8-8 in the league, another NCAA bid will be
waiting for them.
Reported by Rob Clough, tmc@duke.edu
Rob Clough's Other ACC Previews:
#5 - Maryland
#6 - Florida State
#7 - Virginia
#8 - Georgia Tech
#9 - Clemson
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