I had a chance
to see a number of Duke-related targets this weekend, some of them more than once. Without
any further ado:
** Dave McClure (6-6 Wing, CT). Duke has been the co-leader for McClure (along with
Notre Dame) for quite some time. Most analysts consider him to be a top 50 or top 75 type
player. At the moment, he is recovering from mono. His team, the Playaz, had a lot of
talent (including JR Smith, who loves UNC but will likely end up at Louisville) and so he
was there as more of a role player. In the game I saw, he had 5 points, 4 rebounds, a
steal and 2 blocks. He's a solid team player, plays good defense and hustles. He didn't
take many shots, and his only jumper was a 10' banked-in leaner. Afterwards, he felt he
didn't play his best--and a combination of foul trouble and fatigue kept him out of the
game for most of the second half. He definitely wouldn't be an impact freshman but would
help down the line. McClure's college decision will probably come down to playing time vs
the opportunity to play at Duke. Don't be surprised to see him make a commitment soon.
** DeMarcus Nelson (6-3 G, CA). Everyone knows about Markie by now, especially
after his amazing showing in last year's tournament. Nelson is at about 80% right after a
hip injury that has slowed him over the last couple of months. He came a day early to meet
with Coach K and reestablish some ties. His performance in the first game was not up to
his usual standards, but he still scored 31 points in a win. His team got stomped the next
day by a much bigger squad, as Nelson was posted up by the bigger Roy Bright of Durham.
While we didn't get to see much of Nelson's explosiveness because of his injury, his
tremendous strength and superb shooting touch were on display in Durham. For the game in
Durham, he was 5-8 from the three point line, 2-5 from two, and 12-14 from the foul line
(making his last 12 in a row). He had 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 5 turnovers, 2 steals and a
block. DeMarcus started off a bit slowly as he was trying to get others involved, but he
didn't seem to be playing with enough intensity. He did have a steal and breakaway dunk
and powered past his opponents on another breakaway, getting fouled. His upper-body
strength is amazing for such a young player; all he has to do his square up his shoulders
and brush by his foes, and he either scores or gets fouled.
In the second half, DeMarcus
exploded for 3 quick threes to establish a big lead, and also shut down the leading scorer
of his opponents. In this case, it's less his body than his smarts that make him a good
defender. He doesn't bite on fakes or take a lot of risks going for steals. Instead, he
stays in front of his defender, knowing that he won't get muscled out of the way. His long
arms mean he can cover a lot of ground defensively. There was one play where his man went
right at him and DeMarcus simply flicked the ball out of his hands and was then fouled
after starting the break.
DeMarcus is not a pure point
guard by any stretch. His handle could get better, while some of his decisions seemed
influenced by pressure. He coughed the ball up a few times down the stretch as his
opponent was trying to catch up. To his credit, he kept getting the ball and made his free
throws.
** Shaun Livingston (6-7 G, IL). Without a doubt, he was the most talented player I
saw all weekend, and that includes Dwight Howard and Louis Williams. If you read my
comments from last year, I noted that he stood out on a team that had some very solid
older prospects on it. His level of improvement after just one year is nearly off the
charts, dominating the game I saw him in effortlessly. The only thing keeping him from the
league right now is about 25 pounds that he needs to gain. In the game I saw him play in,
he had around 18 points, 6 rebounds, 8 assists, 5 steals and a block. The numbers don't
begin to tell the story, because when he had the ball, you knew something amazing was
going to happen. He'd effortlessly break off a no-look or behind the back pass, or use a
superb fake to freeze his opponents, and then take off for an easy-looking windmill dunk.
While there is a lot of flash to
Shaun's game, there's plenty of substance as well. He is an opportunistic defender who has
an excellent sense of when to play the passing lanes and when to stay home, resulting in
both a lot of steals and lock-down defense. His length makes him difficult to score on and
gives him a lot of advantages. While he's mostly arms and legs right now, give him a
couple of years with the right weight training program and he will be at a McGrady level.
Shaun is the type to let his game do his talking, remaining mostly quiet on and off the
court. At the moment, his four schools are Duke, Florida, Illinois and Arizona. Livingston
wants to play point in college but won't mind spending some time at 2 and 3.
** Dwight Howard (6-11 F, GA). A lot of folks said he was the best prospect out
there, but I don't think I saw his best games. Howard played for the tournament runner-up
Atlanta Celtics, a team loaded with Division 1 talent. The basics on Howard are that he's
an extremely mobile big man who can either face up or play with his back to the basket.
He's a strong rebounder and very good shotblocker, and can also pass to the open man.
While a very good athlete who can run the floor, he doesn't strike me as a physical freak
who dominates above the rim, or as a player so strong that he simply muscle his way
through opponents. While he has solid offensive skills, they can certainly use some
polishing--he had a nice turnaround hook, but had trouble getting it off at times, and his
three point shot looks a bit flat. Still, his skills as a defender are highly advanced for
his age and he can certainly find ways to get to the basket. He has long been mentioned
either as an NBA candidate or a one-and-done player at best. Coach K loves him and is
recruiting him personally, and I imagine academics will be a big emphasis. He's an
excellent student who would thrive in Duke's academic environment, but unless he's willing
to commit for at least three years (at least in theory), there won't be a good match.
There's at least one big-time talent in this year's class who would love to come to Duke,
but his flat statement that he's a one-year player meant that Duke would not offer him a
scholarship. Howard and his friends Randolph Morris (a onetime Duke target) and Josh Smith
all like Georgia Tech, and rumor has it that the trio might like to play there for one
year. Both Morris and Smith are talented, but lack Howard's greater polish and rebounding
ability. I don't see either of them as lottery
material right now. UNC is also very interested, though I know they are looking at a
number of other big man targets right now. At the moment, Howard is Duke's primary big man
target, along with (to a lesser degree) Alexander Kaun, who is more of a traditional
back-to-the-basket player.
** Greg Paulus (6-2 PG, NY). Paulus
is already being talked about as the central figure in a recruiting war between Duke and
UNC. A rising junior, he still has two full seasons to play before he goes to school, but
the word is that he wants to commit early. His family is very interested in seeing him go
to a Catholic school and Notre Dame would love to have him. Additionally, he's good
friends with Dave McClure and would love to attend the same school as him. Let's just say
that Duke has an excellent shot here and move on to specifics.
Paulus reminds me a lot of Steve
Blake. He's a very shifty guard who makes up for a lack of blazing speed with excellent
ball and body control. He loves to attack the basket and either go all the way or
penetrate & pitch to the open shooter. (His teammates missed about 10-15 open shots
that he had generated for them in this fashion.) He has an excellent handle and doesn't
mind taking a beating, underscoring his background as a football player. Paulus hurt his
elbow in his first game but went back into the game to seal the win. He was knocked to the
floor on several occasions later in the weekend, but he just got up to take another
beating inside. He is definitely fearless.
Greg led the whole tournament in
scoring, yet his play was somewhat erratic. First off, he seemed uncomfortable at times in
the role as leading scorer. But the truth was that the talent level of his teammates was
way below that of most squads in the tournament. Greg had to carry his team. The sole
exception was rangy forward Andre Blatche, an extremely versatile 6-9 player who could
score inside and out, block shots and rebound. He needs to gain weight (he's listed at
185), but this kid is a player. Blatche will help someone in Div I very soon.
Back to Paulus, he had 29 points
in the first game I saw him in. He was 3-9 from three and 8-13 from two, and 4-5 from the
line. He had 3 boards, 7 assists and 6 turnovers. Paulus likes to pull up for threes Bobby
Hurley-style, and has nice form on his jumper. He's a solid shooter but will clearly be
very streaky. In the first half of this game, his opponents played him tight so he drove
to the hoop over and over, scoring on 7 layups in traffic. He missed some easy shots in
the second half as his team lost. Greg's handle is great, but his decision-making was
often a bit questionable, simply throwing the ball away at times. Again, there were times
when he seemed to do too much and others where he became too passive.
In the second game I watched him
in, he was playing against a strong, athletic point guard named Drew Neitzel. This
provided an opportunity to see his strengths and weaknesses with greater clarity.
Neitzel's Michigan Mustangs team went up quickly as Paulus had some early turnover
problems. Neitzel controlled him in the first half, holding Paulus to 9 points on 2-5
shooting, 3 assists and 4 turnovers. In the second half, Paulus went berserk early on,
clearly infuriated that his team was being beaten so badly. He abused Neitzel again and
again for tough layups and a three right in his face. Paulus' team took the lead, but
Blatche's extended absence doomed them. Paulus was trying to play a gambling defensive
style to get the ball back, but Neitzel's excellent ballhandling and superior quickness
stymied him to the point where Paulus lunged after the ball and wound up flat on his face.
Still, Paulus finished with 20 points and 5 assists.
However, this does raise a
significant point: Paulus' lateral quickness. His north-south speed is just fine because
of his ball control. He won't break any sprint records but he's more than capable of
running a high octane fast break team. In fact, if you surround him with great athletes,
Paulus will make them all look better because they'll get the ball at the right time in
the right place. However, I worry about his ability to guard elite point guards, given
that his lateral quickness is merely average. A guard with a good crossover will get by
him every time because he's simply not quick enough to recover. He will have to compensate
by playing like Wojo and simply sticking to his man like glue. Paulus alone will not lead
a team to a championship. But Paulus could very well be the glue of a future championship
team. Given a couple of years to get stronger and polish certain aspects of his game, he
has a chance to be a special college basketball player.
Other Players:
I saw a player Duke once had some interest in, (yet another) rangy forward named Mohamed
Tangara. He is very athletic but also rather raw, and had some foul trouble when I saw
him. He was beaten to the ball on several occasions by a rotund but skilled big man named Glen
Davis, who is 6-8 but weighs in at 345. If he can drop about 60 pounds, this young man
will be a big-time power forward. The Atlanta Celtics had a 9th grader on their team (a
rising sophomore) named Javaris Crittenton who is already 6-4, 190. He is an
excellent young point guard who just needs to work on his shot a bit. There was a wiry
young wing named Winton Witherspoon who just needs to add some muscle to his 6-6,
175 pound frame. He's fearless going to the hoop and quite smart. The Milwaukee team had a
scoring machine guard named Draelon Burns; if the local coaches don't have him on
their speed dial, they need to catch up. Oh, and I saw David Burgess play again
this year. He's Chris' younger brother and the best I can say about him is that he's big,
he plays hard, and he can set screens.
Reported by Rob Clough, tmc@duke.edu
Rob's Archive
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