Being
way behind in my game recaps, I thought I'd present an all-inclusive look at what Duke has
done since playing Georgetown. My views on
the team haven't really changed much since earlier in the year. This is a team that has
yet to develop a consistent identity, good or bad. Sometimes they're a lock 'em up
defensive squad that can shut down any scorer and even bang a bit inside. Sometimes the defense looks utterly baffled, as if
the team had just met each other right before tip-off.
The squad can pile up points in a matter of seconds through a lethal fast
break and an offense predicated on attacking the basket and kicking out to open shooters. Duke can also quickly stagnate into a one-on-one
crew that jacks up quick shots and doesn't take advantage of good passes when they come
their way. There are a few things that are
clear, however.
First of all, this team simply does not have the
same blend of talent and experience that the Devils have enjoyed in recent years. Most of the talent lies in the youngest, most
inexperienced players, and that talent is offset by the errors of youth. The experienced members of the team all have
glaring holes in their games. Duke has
increased depth but decreased versatility, which makes it very difficult to find a
consistent group of five that can handle any situation.
Coach K is struggling to find players who can address particular situations,
much less anything. Duke fans need to
understand this--there are no Jason Williams' on this team, no Shane Battiers, no Grant
Hills. There is solid talent, even great
talent, but nothing on the level of all-time greats.
Everyone needs to understand that the kind of leveling afflicting the
program this year is what should have happened in 2000.
What Duke did that year is truly one of the greatest achievements in ACC
history--going 15-1 and winning the ACC Tourney with only three significant returning
players and a host of frosh in various stages of readiness.
That said, while there are no Shane Battiers on
this team, they may well have a Chris Carrawell-type in Dahntay Jones. A lot has been asked of him this year, but the
truth is that his game has certain limits. To
his enormous credit, he has strengthened certain aspects of his game, especially shooting. Amazingly, he leads the team in three point
percentage at 44%. That's along with leading
the team in rebounding and scoring and usually being assigned to guard the other team's
best player. Jones is not a creator off the dribble or a great passer and this has
disturbed some, who would prefer that the team's leader be someone who can feed his
teammates when forced. But this is not who
Dahntay is--he lacks the floor vision of a Mike Dunleavy or the handle of a Grant Hill. Asking him to be like those players is unfair to
what he can and can't do on a court, and K's system has always been about exploiting his
players' strengths and masking their weaknesses. Duke
fans shouldn't worry about what Dahntay can't do; instead, they should revel in what he
does do well.
There are some who are worried about Duke's 5-3
start and inability to get it done on the road. In
general, both teams in the ACC and in the top conferences this year are struggling on the
road. Parity abounds in college basketball
with less powerful teams making up for their lack of talent with greater experience and
team cohesion. The concept of an upset is
becoming more and more vague these days. The
ACC now has more teams capable of winning big games.
Maryland has been a constant the past few years, but now Wake Forest and NC
State are real players for the conference lead. Virginia,
Georgia Tech and UNC all have a ton of young (there's that word again) talent. And we all saw what FSU is capable of. Duke is no
longer capable of putting up mediocre efforts against these teams and still come up with
20 point victories. Their margin of error is
much, much smaller, because the talent difference is much smaller. Duke is 5-3 in the ACC, and another 5-3 showing in
the second half would be a solid ACC season, whether or not it's good enough to win the
league. A lot of Duke fans are falling prey
to the Carolina Entitlement Syndrome, wherein winning the league (and preferably every
game, and preferably by 20+ points every time) is the bare minimum required and anything
less is considered to be an abject failure of a year.
While I enjoyed Duke's period of absolute dominance as much as anyone, that
era is at an end.
Now that we've established that this team won't
win 'em all, let's look at what's gone right and what's gone wrong. Let's begin with a brief breakdown of each game:
** Virginia: This was a fascinating game that revealed a
number of team strengths and weaknesses. Duke
showed that it was vulnerable inside and could be attacked off the dribble. On the other hand, they demonstrated a remarkable
resilience and passion, even when playing from behind.
JJ Redick was the man of hour with 34 points, which included 5 three
pointers and 11 free throws. His biggest play
was a three point play on a drive with four minutes left, which gave Duke a working
margin. Dahntay was also huge with 16 of his
23 points in the second half, mostly from attacking the basket and the foul line. Also big was Shavlik Randolph, who scored 11 of
his 17 in the second half, including 7 in a row. Duke
could not stop the Virginia post duo of Travis Watson and Elton Brown, who combined for 45
points and 9 rebounds.
The home crowd was a big factor in this game. One could sense the team redoubling their efforts
when the crowd urged them on, and to some degree, that spoke to some of the team's
problems. At times, there's a flatness of
affect that's just maddening to watch. The
team lacks a relentlessly emotional player like Shane Battier or Jason Williams to fire up
his teammates, nor does it have a sheriff type like Christian Laettner or Bobby Hurley
that were ultra-demanding. With a young team
that has a fragile self-image, both the coaches and the older players are struggling to
find ways to motivate the youngsters without destroying their confidence, and it's not
easy. The biggest hurdle for this group has
been the journey from being a group of individuals to a team. This journey has been made more difficult with the
departure of Williams and Dunleavy--not because of their scoring, but their incredible
passing. Even Carlos Boozer was a master of
the relocation pass from the post. With less
deft passing, it's harder to get the ball to your teammates where they have an easy chance
to score, making the whole team have to work harder at both ends of the court. The other part of the equation is communication. The younger players don't yet understand how
crucial this is in how Duke gets things done, especially on defense. This is especially true of the post players, who
call out defensive plays and switches like a middle linebacker might.
** Maryland: Duke's somewhat suspect defense made them a prime
candidate for defeat at Maryland. The Terps
drew on the emotion of their own crowd and Duke's reliance on the jumper to survive an
early onslaught and slowly batter away at Duke. Maryland
got 28 points from their bench and a huge games from post Ryan Randle (15 and 17). Duke really showed their youth, and perhaps, the
pressure of being ranked #1. The Devils
missed free throws (after shooting so brilliantly in their previous game), didn't block
out and gave up a number of crucial turnovers. The
Terps used a superb offensive showing by Drew Nicholas to finish Duke off--he didn't do
anything special, he simply was in the right place at the right time, and his teammates
got him the ball. Maryland hit 29 of their 31
foul shot attempts, and that forestalled a late Duke comeback attempt. The one player that Maryland couldn't stop was
Dahntay, who heroically scored 8 points in the last 8 minutes to try and keep things
close. Duke simply broke down in the second
half, going from being down 57-56 to down 67-56 in just three minutes. Once the Terps stepped on Duke's throat, they
didn't let up. Their big advantage was in
experience, with several seniors on the floor who understood their roles in a system
extremely well.
** NC State: A loss at the hands of a tough, veteran Maryland
was understandable. That team was very
difficult to beat at home, and they were fired up to beat their hated rivals, especially
when they were #1. The NC State loss pointed to deeper problems. It took over a half of play for Duke to actually
work hard on defense--prior to that, the team mistook shots that just weren't falling for
State for actual defense. And like early in
the Maryland game, Duke hit a number of easy shots from long range that made them
overconfident. State actually started to
tighten up a bit, making sure to cut off penetration.
The Wolfpack exploited Duke using a small lineup. They like to run the offense from the high post
and look for cutters, or else reverse it to open shooters after short dribble drives and
high screens. One would think that Duke could
use its superior speed to stop a small lineup, but the problem was that Duke was always a
step slow on the recovery. When one man went
over to help, another man did not always rotate over in time. When Duke started to
overplay the perimeter, State used this as an opportunity to attack the basket. Duke eventually abandoned the three and started
attacking the hoop themselves, and went from being down 6 to taking a 3 point lead with
twelve minutes left. Duke went big during
this period, and the increased size and rebounding helped Duke take advantage inside for
awhile. But the youth of Williams &
Randolph led to several poorly-chosen shots and turnovers and let State back into the
game. Much like in the Maryland game, Duke
just melted down in the last ten minutes, going from a tie to a double-digit deficit. Redick was big once again with 24 points, but he
only managed 4 in the second half. One need
only look at the stats of the team's veterans to see what went wrong. Jones fouled out and only scored 10 points. Sanders was ineffectual and play only 8 minutes. Worst of all, team leader Duhon was 1-9 from the
field and had 5 turnovers. He was completely
outplayed by his counterparts from State, Julius Hodge (18 points, 6 assists) and Clifford
Crawford (21 points, 6 assists). Granted,
Crawford had an inexplicable career night from the field, but Duke can usually withstand
big individual efforts by shutting down everyone else.
Without the upperclassmen stepping up to make big plays, the younger players
looked lost.
** Georgia Tech: The Jackets were a big, athletic team that could
hurt Duke inside, off the dribble and from long range.
Their frosh star Chris Bosh is a possible lottery pick, a rangy, quick 6-10
shotblocker and scorer. With 7 footer Luke
Schenscher in the middle and gritty Ed Nelson coming off the bench, it seemed like Tech
could exploit Duke's weakness inside. Of
course, it didn't happen. Casey Sanders and
Shelden Williams had aggressive early showings, blocks shots, grabbing rebounds, and
getting to the line. Bosh wound up in foul
trouble the whole game and never got a clean look at the basket, shooting 0-2 from the
field. The seniors sparked a series of big
plays towards the end of the first half that gave Duke a lead after trading it back and
forth for most of the half. Jones hit two
jumpers and passed to Duhon for a drive. Then
came the play of the year: Sanders went high for a spectacular block that Jones caught,
threw downcourt to Ewing, and up to Williams for a dunk.
Duke slowly built up a lead with a balanced
attack. Williams ruled the boards in the
second half and wound up with 18, while Jones attacked Tech off the dribble and in the
air. Duhon had 9 assists and just 1 turnover
and scored 8 points. The Devils took care of
the ball and dominated the boards against a Tech team that was pretty young themselves. Once again, the comforts of home had a lot to do
with Duke's intensity, as well as a real sense of urgency after back-to-back losses. The veterans led, and the youngsters followed.
** Butler:
This was a fascinating game, as it showed that Duke's real problem on the
perimeter was shutting down quick players, not great shooters. The Bulldogs were a collection of deadeye shooters
with limited athleticism and a couple of decent post men.
In the first half, Duke built up a decent lead by attacking the basket and
getting the ball to the big men. Sanders had
7 first half points and Jones had 9. The
biggest revelation was Randolph, who used a variety of crafty post moves against slower
opponents. He started with a pump fake to
draw a foul and three point play, threw down a dunk on a perfect Duhon feed, tossed in a
hook shot and then went outside for a short jumper. Butler
stayed within range by hitting ridiculously long-range shots but was helpless inside. In the second half, Randolph kept up his assault,
scoring 15 more points on jumpers and rebound baskets.
Meanwhile, Duke used a delay game after they built up a significant lead,
and let Jones drive to the basket and either score or get fouled. Butler didn't have anyone quick and strong enough
to stop him. The result was a relaxed win
against a quality club, one that will be a likely NCAA participant.
** Florida State: FSU has gone to an uptempo game under new coach
Leonard Hamilton, and the game turned out to be a near-replay of the Maryland and NC State
games. Early in the game, FSU got into a
scoring rhythm by attacking Duke's pressure defense.
They had enough quickness to get by the initial wave of defense, and their
guards then kicked out to open shooters along the baseline.
FSU made Duke pay by hitting every single open shot, to the tune of an
obscene 68% in the first half. The 'noles
used a four (and sometimes five) guard offense against Duke, which forced going to a
smaller lineup on defense. They used pretty
much the same blueprint that NC State had used: beat Duke to the spot on offense, and
encourage them to jack up quickshots on the other end.
It was working until a sparkplug named Lee Melchionni came off the bench to
hit a three and take a charge, giving his teammates a sudden infusion of emotion. Duke
fought back from an 11 point deficit to tie the score twice, but could never take the
lead. For a young team, not being able to get
over the hump really hurt them. Duke fought
hard until the end, with Sanders getting a rebound dunk, Dockery getting a tip-in, and
Ewing hitting a clutch three with time winding down.
But Jones & Duhon weren't able to produce. They were a combined 3-17 from the field with 7
turnovers. Jones fouled out and his presence was missed on defense. Duhon slipped on a potential game-tying play down
the stretch and turned the ball over. It was
a frustrating game because players like Horvath had played so well (10 points, 12
rebounds). If Duke was taking their opponents
lightly, it needed to stop. The Devils were
able to focus when they were rallying, but it was taking too much energy.
** North Carolina: The first 35 minutes of the game was a virtual
repeat of the losses to FSU and NC State: small, quick team uses dribble penetration to
either get to the hoop or kick out to wide-open shooter. Said team magically has one of
the their best shooting nights of the year as everything starts to fall. The Heels had led for most of the game after
shooting 61% in the first half and had stopped turning the ball over. Duke fought back by--what else--going hard to the
basket. Those drives didn't appear by
magic--it took better communication on defense to set up the screens, and Jones &
Ewing would not settle for just jumpers. Still, with about seven minutes left, the score
was 61-61. Ray Felton, who had been torching
Duke's defense with his blinding first step, missed consecutive front ends of
one-and-ones. Jones drove and was fouled,
giving Duke a lead. Then Duke pulled out its
secret weapon: a variation on the matchup zone.
Coach K hates zone and gimmick defenses, but no
one could keep up with Felton's penetration and UNC has been known to become completely
befuddled when presented with the simplest of zones.
It worked, forcing UNC to take jumpers instead of going to the hoop, though
a Duke error led to a great look by UNC that fell short.
Meanwhile, Duke's leaders took over. Duhon
came off the bench for the first time in many games (the second game of the 2002 season,
to be precise); it wasn't to punish him, but rather help to relax and just play. His shot wasn't falling in the first half but his
playmaking elan was back, as was his ballhawking. He
scored on a couple of drives early in the second half, but really took over down the
stretch. He threw a perfect lob to Jones, who threw it down. After UNC scored to come within 68-65, he set up
behind a Horvath screen and nailed a three. Chris then drove baseline and hit a pretty
scoop shot that gave Duke a 73-65 lead.
Duke's offense, relegated to mostly one-on-one
play and jacking up quick shots, suddenly ran like clockwork. JJ Redick drove and dished to a cutting Nick
Horvath for a dunk. Duhon drove to the hole
and kicked it to a cutting Horvath for a layup. Duke
was suddenly unstoppable on offense and doing a good job on defense as well. The home atmosphere was part of it, but there was
a sudden swagger to Duhon's walk that had been absent for the entire year. Jones had an immense game with 23 points and 13
rebounds, Sanders had 5 points, 8 rebounds and 3 blocks, and Redick chipped in with 17
points, including a half-ending three that cut UNC's lead to five.
So the team is on an upswing emotionally and gets
to play at home again when Clemson visits this weekend.
It also helps that Maryland and NC State both lost, making the ACC a real
race again. The reason why Duke used to be so
formidable on the road was the toughness of their leaders, who used the energy that
opposing crowds would generate against them. If
Duke is to win the ACC this year, they have to win on the road, and those wins must be
keyed by Duhon & Jones, and to a lesser degree, Sanders & Horvath.
Player-by-Player:
** Sanders: Casey is playing about as
well as one would expect. An offensive force
he's not, though he's chipping away for about 5 ppg.
His 5 rpg are the second-highest mark on the team, while his 24 blocks lead
everyone. Casey is setting good screens and
has improved his overall post defense greatly. He
rarely leaves his feet on defense and is doing a pretty good job in calling out screens
and communicating. As a senior, he's doing a
decent job as a role player. Not a star, not
a major contributor, but someone who is filling a role and has experience. His major flaw (other than his hideous 40% mark
from the foul line) is his propensity for fouling, especially on the offensive end. He needs to be able to stay in the game and so
must be aware not only of what he's doing from play to play, but also how the refs are
calling a game.
** Horvath: Nick is playing like a man possessed of late. He's not the biggest, strongest or quickest guy
out there, but he is hustling and always seems to be in the right place at the right time. His effort against FSU was heroic, as he seemed to
be the one player who refused to lose. Nick
has earned his job of a starter and the unofficial captain of the post players. While limited on offense, he can hit the open
jumper when it's there and has proven to be adept as a tip-in guy. His lack of footspeed and bulk can be liabilities
and limit his minutes somewhat, but his hustle helps make up for it.
** Jones:
As mentioned above, Dahntay has been Duke's best and most consistent player
this year. He's shooting an impressive 51%
from the field and 77% from the foul line, and he's gotten there a team-high 92 times. Dahntay needs to stay strong mentally, stay out of
confrontations, and be ready to take over games at any time. He needs to play well every night for Duke to have
a chance to have an outstanding season.
** Redick:
JJ has had some troubles shooting since he hurt his foot a bit in the NC
State game. Other teams have double-teamed
him, trying to force him into mistakes, and this tactic has worked reasonably well. Still, the shooter supreme is second on the team
in assists with nearly 2 per game, proving that he is a team player first and foremost. While his three point shooting has cooled, it's
still at a very respectable 41%. JJ is a
confident shooter and one feels good about him shooting whether he's made 10 in a row or
missed 10 in a row. However, one doesn't want
to lean on him too much or become too reliant on the three. This team seems to work best when it's attacking
the basket. I'd like to see JJ shoot mostly
when he's wide-open on a kickout, or when he curls around a screen and squares up quickly. His release simply isn't as quick when he has to
put the ball on the deck. It's been a real
pleasure to watch him compete for Duke this year.
** Duhon:
Chris' struggles have been well-documented.
The point guard of a national championship squad, he has a lot of
responsibilities riding on his shoulders. When
should he shoot? When should he drive? What if his shot isn't falling? Should he concentrate on setting everyone else up?
Chris averages about 9 ppg, and I'd like to see that go up to about 12 ppg. I'd also like to see him borrow a cup of Dahntay's
attitude--Chris is sometimes just too nice out there.
Steve Blake has his sneer and Ray Felton has his haughty expression, and I'd
like to see Chris adopt a little of that braggadocio.
If he's feeling confident, that will spread to the rest of the team. His floor vision and ballhandling are still both
excellent, but a cockier player will be able to avoid some of the traps he's found himself
in by being more decisive. All of this can be
boiled down into four words: Don't Think, Just Play.
Basketball at Duke is not a job, it's supposed to be fun, and he needs to
recapture that joy. His teammates and coach
are all behind him, and I think coming off the bench (for now) will help bring some of
that back.
** Ewing: Dan has been a reasonably
steady force all year, but his production has tailed off a bit of late. He's starting at point for the moment, though he
is anything but a true point. Still, he's a
good passer and above-average ballhandler, so it's an interesting move to be sure. He is an excellent foul shooter and is second only
to Jones in getting there. His ability to attack the basket is probably his best asset. He's a solid defender, decent rebounder for his
size and loves to hit the mid-range jumper. In
short, he's a solid but unspectacular player who has a lot of room to become a great
player. His quickness, great form and leaping
ability give him the tools to excel. Recently,
one can see his passion for the team starting to build--when he fouled out of the UNC
game, no one was cheering harder than him.
** Randolph: Shav & Shelden are the
two enigmas on the team. Coach K is bringing
them along slowly, and watches carefully to see how they match up against particular
opponents. Against a team like Maryland, Shav
had no chance to compete. Against Butler, he
was a monster. The big problem with Shav is
on the defensive end. It's OK if you're not
the quickest guy to play post in Duke's defense, but you must know where you're going and
why. Shav simply seems mystified by help-side
defense and how to play within Duke's system. He's
catching on, but very slowly. As far as
on-ball defense goes, he's actually pretty decent, blocking a lot of shots and bodying up
his man well, though he's still a bit on the thin side and so gets pushed out of the lane
relatively easily. He has a ton of post moves
and can also hit shots from anywhere on the floor. Until
he can prove he can guard any type of big or small player, his minutes will sometimes be
limited. But the potential is there.
** Williams:
Shelden likes donnybrook type games, where he can battle against other big men and
go hard to the hoop. He operates best when he
can just catch and shoot, and has great hands. Shelden
is still very tentative at times and makes a lot of mental errors. He needs to be able to come in and establish
himself as a physical force in a way that avoids drawing fouls. When he's on--like against a big team like Georgia
Tech--he is quite a force, especially since his teammates are looking to set him up
whenever possible. When his footwork and
decision-making improve, he will see a lot more playing time and on a regular basis. Until
then, expect to see him play against foes with more size.
** Dockery: Sean was in danger of falling
out of the rotation altogether after a series of erratic performances where he was
worrying too much about his shot and not enough about defense and passing. Then he settled down and started to take better
shots and do a tremendous job with ball pressure. His
hands are very quick and he loves to run. When
he learns how to rotate on the perimeter a bit better, he will be a complete defensive
player. He still makes mistakes, but he's
also making things happen game-in and game-out now.
** Melchionni: Every time Lee has come
off the bench in blowouts, I always think: "That is one confident kid. He acts like he's been ready all game to come in
and contribute." He's kept up that
positive attitude and has been rewarded with some extended playing time of late. He was huge in the FSU game and had some good
moments against UNC as well. Melch is
definitely not just along for the ride. When
this kid is a senior, he's going to be a big-time contributor (not star, but contributor).
** Thompson: Big Mike has not been ready
for prime time as of yet, mostly for reasons related to defense as above, but doubling
that problem on offense. A summer working out
and practicing will do a world of good for him. He
needs to step up next year, because Casey Sanders will be gone and there will be a place
for a big guy who can bang intelligently.
What are
the keys to the rest of the season? Focus,
intensity, upperclass leadership, driving to the hoop, minimizing turnovers, keeping
opponents off of the foul line, and being able to run a bit to keep things fresh. More than ever, this team will look different on a
game-by-game basis due to matchups. If your
favorite player isn't out there, don't panic--just consider whom Duke is playing and why a
particular set of men might be out there.
Reported by Rob
Clough, tmc@duke.edu
Rob's Archive
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