Once again, I am hopelessly behind, so I thought
I'd post short thoughts on the regular season and somewhat longer ones on the ACC
Tournament.
** St. John's:
You know, I've watched this game three times
and I'm still not sure what happened. A
hungry and sharp team that whipped Georgia Tech looked unmotivated in the first half and
scared in the second. This was a team that
walked in with a swagger but that forgot how they earned that swagger. This is not the 1999 team or the 1992 team. Opponents swooned in the early going against them,
anticipating an offensive onslaught or defensive beating.
While those teams had immense talent, they also had leaders who kept
everyone in line and role players who brought a consistent level of effort and production
every night. For example, even when the 1999
team got in trouble, they could turn to role players Chris Carrawell or Shane Battier for
help.
On this squad, Dahntay Jones should be that
kind of role player.
Instead, he's been forced to become a leading man,
and the team suffers greatly when he's in foul trouble or has an off shooting night. This is where the absence of Mike Dunleavy is felt
the most. Teams get to focus on Jones, JJ
Redick and Daniel Ewing without having to worry about a multifaceted superstar who can
kill them with his shot, with his passing, or off the dribble. This team simply doesn't have that kind of
unguardable player. Even the best players on
this team have obvious flaws.
This is a bit reminisicent of Coach K's 80's
teams. Some have said that K is not master of
X's & O's, and to some extent that's true, if you're comparing him to a Jim Valvano or
Rick Majerus. But no one in college
basketball understands his personnel and how to get the most out of them better than Coach
K, and he proved that in his early years when he found ways to not only cover up the
weaknesses of his star players, but find ways to spotlight their strengths. Look no further than the 1988 team, one of my
all-time favorites. 6-10 Danny Ferry started
at point forward. 6-4 Robert Brickey, a tremendous leaper, was the center. 6-6 Billy King was the power forward who guarded
the other team's best player. K hid Ferry's
weaknesses (not a strong dribbler or a post-up player) and maximized his strengths
(excellent passer, shooter and position rebounder) by running the team through him in the
halfcourt.
Beyond
those adjustments on offense, however, has been continuity on defense. Even players who aren't great athletes can do what
Coach K wants on the floor if they bring constant intensity and an ability to communicate. Actions as simple as calling out a screen or
seeing that you need help and asking for it loudly can make a huge difference. For his most advanced teams, the best defenders
were always a step ahead of the other team and told his teammates were to be as well. The key is not to play ten minutes with intense
ball pressure or twenty minutes of excellent help defense.
The key is to do that for forty minutes.
This brings us back to this year's team. Their main deficits have been a lack of focus and
difficulty communicating. Remember that
Duke's main defensive scheme is to generate ball pressure with the guards and for everyone
to play the passing lanes. For teams that
rely on dribble penetration to attack opponents, this requires tremendous discipline on
the part of the perimeter defenders (to stay in front as long as possible) and the post
defenders (to be ready to rotate over and take a charge). What happens if someone is late? An easy score for the other team and/or a foul. Furthermore, the post players must be instantly
ready to block out opponents after misses. They
must be extra alert because Duke never sends five men to the boards at either end.
Let's
now look at the St John's game in light of this. Duke
shot 53% for the game, including 7-16 from three. Sounds
good, right? St John's shot just 39% and 62%
from the foul line. On the surface, this
sounds like a 20 point Duke win. Instead,
it's a 1 point loss. Let's dig a little
deeper. St. John's relied mostly on star
guard Marcus Hatten. He was only 8-19, but
the Red Storm had 21 offensive rebounds in the game. How did he score most of his points? From the foul line.
That's because Duke's defenders didn't go after him quickly enough. To me, the biggest stat of the game was that St
John's had only 8 turnovers, with 1 Duke steal. Meanwhile,
Duke coughed it up an uncharacteristic 16 times. St
John's already had 7 more possessions thanks to its rebounds, but the turnover
differential tacked 8 more on. Duke was
beaten at its own game.
Still,
Duke held a slim lead most of the game simply because St John's was so inept inside. Dahntay Jones overpowered his opponents, while
even Casey Sanders was scoring at will. Duke
then started to lose its grip on the little things and it cost them. They couldn't inbound the ball, a clear sign of
players not helping each other out. The team
took rushed shots, hoping to make the one that would cinch the game for them. The final straw was that the team stopped playing
perimeter opponents tight. Hatten and Anthony Glover got wide-open looks at threes because
no one came over to even put a hand in their face. Breakdown
after breakdown eventally led to the final breakdown, Dan Ewing's turnover and subsequent
foul. It was not a good play on his part, but
that last gaffe was manufactured by a team and game's worth of errors. If Duke had done any of a half-dozen things right
earlier in the game, they would have won. But they didn't, and learned a very hard lesson
as a result. Some lessons take longer than
others to absorb, and have to be repeated many times. With this team, it needs every part
of the rotation to be equally diligent andf focused.
** Florida State: In the past, there has always been big-time
payback reserved for Duke's next opponent when they happen to lose. There is always more focus, more emotion and more
togetherness. Against Florida State, there
was some of that, but only for brief spurts. To
my great surprise and disappointment, Senior Day had all of the emotional charge and
excitement of the ACC Play-In Game. In the
past, it's been incredibly emotional, even against inferior teams. There were a lot of factors at work to create this
lack of atmsosphere. First off was the very
poor decision of head line monitor Jeremy Morgan to make Senior Day the special senior
wristband game. Somewhere in the mid-90's,
the line monitors would make one game a special one where the seniors got the best seats. This game was usually reserved for a minor ACC
game earlier in the season. Inevitably, the crowd would be one of the least enthusiastic
of the season. Why? Because the most hardcore fans would be dispersed
and unable to organize cheers, and because fans who hadn't attended a single game all year
would stand there with their arms folded. It
was a bad idea to begin with and a really stupid one to make it coincide with Senior Day.
Secondly, the Senior Day ceremonies started 15 minutes before tip-off. No big deal for the students, since they're
already all there. But for the fans upstairs,
a number seemed to be caught off guard and were still mingling in the new concourse. Having that concourse in the first place meant
that the fans weren't in their seats, simply because there was nowhere else to go in the
past! Part of the early start was because
ESPN wanted to start the game at 7:00pm sharp--no time for ceremonies!
All of this overdetermination made for a
rather tame senior ceremony. Still, Duke came out playing solid defense in the first half,
if looking rather inept on offense. Duke
started with a 7-0 run (thanks to Shelden Williams overwhelming FSU's small front line)
and led 28-7 after a 13-0 run. In the half,
Duke generated 16 turnovers, though to be honest a number of them were simply incompetent
plays by FSU. The Devils had 5 first half
steals, plus 2 forced turnovers and 2 charges taken.
FSU was pretty clearly rattled by Duke's pressure but rallied to outscore
Duke 13-12 down the stretch. Jones, Redick
& Ewing all responded by taking FSU off the dribble and scoring on drives. After Duke's lead had shrunk to 44-27, 8 straight
points from that trio and then an alley-oop dunk by Casey Sanders off a Chris Duhon steal
put Duke up 54-29. There were signs of
trouble, however.
Shelden
quickly got into foul trouble and was limited to 1 first half point. Nick Horvath looked awful on defense, making
ordinary big man Mike Mathews look like the second coming of Hakeem Olajuwon. Guys were turning the ball over and taking bad
shots. FSU cut a 26 point lead down to 18
with seven minutes left, but Ewing came back to push it back up to 21. A 10-2 FSU run had fans murmuring about another
collapse, but the deficit was really too great. Late
baskets by Duhon and even Andre Buckner sealed this one up, but it was no thing of beauty. FSU shot 50% in the second half while Duke hit
only on 36%. An amazing 17 rebound game by
Williams helped Duke win that particular battle, but his fouling out didn't help. Jones
was extremely erratic, to say the least. He
blew a 4-on-1 break by trying to deliver a flashy behind-the-back pass that sailed out of
bounds and was promptly removed. His last
possession of the game before being removed found him shuffling his pivot foot for a
travel. He was sloppy, Duhon was sloppy (5
turnovers), Horvath was awful--Duke's three captains barely showed up for this game.
Afterwards,
K was furious with just about everyone, from the fans down to the media down to the
players. He blasted the crowd for being
spoiled. He got on his team for not finishing strong, though as always he muted his public
criticism of his team. This is a group that
he's had to be gentle with because everyone is so young, but it's clear that he was tired
of that approach as he lit into virtually every player who made a mistake. The leaders
weren't doing their jobs and everyone needed to grow up--especially with their arch-rivals
lurking.
** UNC:
Here's another game where the numbers were a bit deceptive. Duke won the rebounding battle in this game (with
17 offensive!), only turned the ball over 10 times to 14 for UNC, were a decent 10-14 from
the line and shot an adequate 45%. So what
went wrong? Very simple: UNC shot 56%,
including an unthinkable 61% in the first half. What
killed Duke was very much the same thing that hurt them against St John's: a lack of
defensive intensity and communication. The
Heels essentially have one thing going for them: speed.
Their penetration, especially by Rashad McCants and Ray Felton, is a potent
weapon. Jawad Williams is a rangy forward who
is erratic from the field but extremely athletic. Melvin
Scott and Jackie Manuel are capable role players. All
one has to do in order to stop the Heels is cut off their penetration and make them take
contested jumpers. On the other hand, letting Felton & McCants into the paint is
almost always an automatic score. That's
because McCants is incredibly strong for his size (6-3) and Felton has a lightning quick
first step.
Most teams simply zoned the Heels and played
the percentages with regard to their outside shooting.
Playing the percentages has never been Coach K's way--he always prefers to
attack. The problem was not that a fool-proof
defense was ripped apart by a superior offense, but that a mediocre defense was exposed by
players who the tools to exploit too much one-on-one defensive play. Throw in a lot of motivation and emotion on UNC's
part, and you had a recipe for a long afternoon.
The McCants-Felton tag team had 22 points in
the first half alone. The Heels were
incapable of completely shutting down Duke, as Shelden Williams was manhandling the Heels
to the tune of 12 first half points. Meanwhile,
JJ Redick had 3 threes. Unfortunately,
Dahntay Jones was shut down by Jackie Manuel to the tune of 0-5 from the field. Duke cannot succeed when Dahntay is not playing
well. The Devils have to have their seniors
playing well in order to help direct their younger teammates. Moreover, Jones was being beaten at the defensive
end as well. Still, a JJ three put Duke up by
one with three minutes to go in the half, but 6 missed shots (3 by Jones, 2 by Redick,
with 4 of the 6 being three point attempts) and a couple of turnovers led to UNC finishing
the half on a 7-2 run. This very young team
had outplayed and outhustled Duke.
Jones
immediately set out to redeem his awful half with a steal and drive, while a dropstep from
Williams tied the game. A pattern formed:
Duke missed 3 threes and was suddenly down by 7. Going
back to the short game (drives, short jumpers and stickbacks) brought them within 1 point.
Jones now had 10 second half points, mostly earned by going hard to the basket. The Heels were getting more work from McCants and
some timely three point shooting (4-8 in the half from a team that's awful from the bonus
stripe). Duke turned up the pressure and
eventually took the lead back, trading it a few times with the Heels. A turning point was the infamous situation where
Jones hit Felton in the mouth by accident and then Matt Doherty's screaming match with
Chris Collins. The Heels seemed extra intense
after the incident and would never surrender the lead again.
Going
up 68-64 on a Felton three and McCants on a drive gave the Heels a tiny but important
cushion down the stretch. Jones and Ewing
both got Dukeback into it with powerful drives, while Shelden used a slam to quiet down
the Chapel Hill crowd. Duke then went zone
and utterly baffled the Heels for a couple of minutes, tying the game at 72. McCants hit an enormous three with just over a
minute left, and another UNC score made it 77-72. Duke
did not say die. Jones somehow hit a three
after missing his first 4 attempts. The Heels
hit their foul shots as Duke was trying to get back into it. Dahntay had one last fling at the basket, but was
milliseconds too late in releasing the ball--but it did go in.
The game was a true classic. UNC was playing as well as they possibly could and
rising to every challenge. There are a number
of ways to analyze this game, but the Heels were simply quicker, tougher physically and
tougher mentally than Duke. They wanted it
much more and were willing to pay the price to get there.
Losing because one misses shots, or another team has a freakish performance,
or because of a lack of talent are all acceptable. Losing
because the other team wanted it more should never, ever happen to Duke, yet that is
precisely what happened here. UNC set a tone
early on with their aggressive pay and Duke did not respond until the second half. By then, it was just a bit too late. The more troubling issue is that team
communication did not seem to be getting any better.
No one was helping Duhon with Felton, who was driving at will. No one
stepped up in an effort to meet Felton when he had the ball. No one doubled McCants or forced him to dribble.
Duke had several questions hanging before
the ACC Tournament:
1.
Could Daniel Ewing come out of his slump?
2.
Would JJ Redick get any good looks?
3.
How would the frosh in general react?
4.
Would the seniors step up, and how?
5.
Could Duke play an entire game's worth of good team defense?
These
and other questions will be answered in my look at the ACC Tournament! (Coming soon.)
Reported by Rob Clough, tmc@duke.edu
Rob's Archive
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