Rob at T.O.C.

Rob's Random Recruiting Ramblings

   So here are my general thoughts on the Tournament of Champions so far.   I've seen the Raleigh Heat (with JJ Redick, Michael Thompson and Shavlik Randolph) twice, the Illinois Fire (with Sean Dockery) once, and the Michigan Hurricanes (with Anthony Roberson) once.  What follows are some stats and general observations, both about the Duke targets and other interesting players I happened to see this weekend.  By no means should this be considered any kind of definitive evaluation of talent, since I'm only seeing a game or two.

 ** JJ Redick (Raleigh Heat):  Let's start with the best, shall we?  JJ was one of the earliest-ever players to commit to Duke last fall.  At the time, he was roughly considered to be a top-ten player, but since that time he has been generally considered to be a top-twenty player.  But after he was MVP of a tournament a couple of weeks ago and the show he's put on thus far, there's been a lot of buzz about him entering the top five.

   In Raleigh's first game, against Master's Hoops, JJ scored 26 points, including a clutch three pointer with seconds left.  The Heat blew a big lead (a recurring theme) and fell behind thanks to future State player Ilian Evtimov, but JJ's three put them ahead for good.

   In their second game, against the Georgia Stars, he had 27 points and led his team to victory.  This happened to be his first-ever game in Cameron Indoor Stadium, and he certainly didn't disappoint.  He shot 6-11 from three and took several 24' jumpers--and they weren't forced at all.  Several of his misses were right on line and just popped out.  He also had a number of assists, 3 boards and played excellent defense.

   That was all a warmup for his scoring eruption in the Dean Dome against Beach Ball Select--39 points on 11-19 shooting, including 5 threes.  In this game, Redick took his man off the dribble, driving in for an array of sweet drives and a reverse layup right before the half.  He was also a remarkable 11-12 from the foul line, using his surprising strength to get his shot whenever he wanted.  That followed 7-8 foul shooting in the first game.  The Heat lost this game after blowing a 19 point lead, thanks exclusively to Ray Felton.  More on him later.

    First and foremost, JJ is one of the best shooters I've ever seen.  His form is as disciplined as Trajan Langdon's and his shot is as pure as Chris Duhon's.  He can shoot off screens or create his own shot, using fakes and quick jab steps to get open.  He can hit out to 25' with absolute ease and has a remarkably quick release.  His foul shooting form and routine are both textbook.  Simply put, an opponent should never leave him open under any circumstances.

   But Redick is far more than a shooter.  Sturdily built at 6-4/190, he's strong and quick enough to take his man off the dribble with ease.  The only player who could stop him was the ultra-quick Ray Felton, and even he couldn't couldn't handle him for much of the game.  JJ also doesn't mind going after tough rebounds and is a solid passer.  He had one nice move where he drove into the lane, switched hands and went right to the basket. While not a leaper, he's suprisingly quick and excellent in transition.

   As for weaknesses, his biggest is ballhandling.  He was robbed several times by Felton when he was trying to bring up the ball and occasionally had trouble protecting the ball.  He's not an awful ballhandler, but it's certainly not his biggest strength.  And while he can pass and handle, he is certainly not a point guard.  For a Duke comparison, think of a  Trajan Langdon who can also penetrate.  Casey Jacobsen is another good comparison, though I think JJ is more athletic.  His defense off the ball could also improve, but that's true of most young players not named Shane Battier.  He would play big minutes right now for Duke if he had been a senior this year; I expect him to be a big immediate contributor in two  years.

 ** Michael Thompson (Raleigh Heat): Michael is a sturdy 6-10/225 and very mobile and athletic.  He proved to be a good defender, both in terms of position and shotblocking.  At this point, he has two major flaws.  First, he's very foul prone.  Felton took the ball right at him, as did other players, and caught him flatfooted a couple of times.  Second, he has shaky hands. He dropped a couple of tough passes and bobbled some easier ones as well, and also seemed a bit unsure of himself in the post.  That said, he's aggressive going to the basket, earning many trips to the foul line.  He was only 2-6 from the line in the game against the Select, though his form looks reasonably good.  He scored 3 points in each of the games I saw him in, averaged about 6 rebounds.  His quick feet, strong frame and overall athleticism make him a good prospect, but it's clear he'll need a lot of development.  Hopefully, he'll be able to improve on his hands (his biggest weakness) as a senior and back up Duke's big men.  The one other thing to consider is that he just didn't see the ball that much with so many other guys looking to score.

 ** Shavlik Randolph (Raleigh Heat): Some people are calling him a bust, but I don't really see him that way.  While I don't think he was the best  player in the tournament, he does have an awesome array of offensive skills. He had 17 points and 11 rebounds in each of the two games I saw him play in, but wasn't really dominant in either.  Part of the problem is that he had an injured ankle, and one could tell that it limited his mobility a bit, especially on defense.  What Shav brings to the table is a pretty jumper from  anywhere on the court, though his favorite is a baseline fadeaway ala Laettner. He also stuck a 17' jumper after using a pump fake and hard dribble.  I also  saw him nail a three and sink 9-11 free throws.  He likes to dribble, which  sometimes got him in trouble against quick players.  But he smoothly would  drive, stop, spin and go to the basket for a score.

     Of the big men I saw play, he's definitely the most skilled and best offensive threat.  But he doesn't have the physical ability right now to match up against the best big men, especially on defense.  I see him more as a big wing who can grab rebounds--sort of what Dunleavy has evolved into, but with many more scoring tools inside.  The best thing is that he has a big frame with wide shoulders, meaning that he would definitely be able to carry a lot more size on his body if he hits the weights.

          Overall, I think he'd fit right in at Duke, especially with Thompson at center and the Devils recruiting another big man as well.

  ** Sean Dockery (Illinois Fire):  Dockery dueled Roberson in a battle between Duke point guard targets.  But to be honest, their games are so different it's difficult to compare the two.  Also, it's important to note that the game I saw them play in was at 9 in the morning--not exactly a pleasant time to play a game.  Dockery is more of a pure point guard than Roberson.  He likes to penetrate and finish or dish off, and is a tough defender.  Dock and Roberson neutralized each other when defending the other, but had no trouble scoring when faced with different men.  In essence, Dock won the first half of this game (and his team led) and Roberson won the second half as his team won the game.

     Sean had around 16 points, mostly on drives and free throws, though he did hit a pull-up three on the break.  He's a very creative passer, using a wrap-around to a teammate after he drove into the lane on one play.  His crossover is excellent and he has great jets when he wants to turn it on, but is rarely out of control.  He penetrates like Jason Williams but plays with the more conservative style of Chris Duhon.  His toughness is one of his biggest assets.  It's very easy to see him blending in on the current Duke team.  The thing I like about him most is that he really loves to play defense.

     ** Anthony Roberson (Michigan Hurricanes):  He was the MVP of the TOC as his team won it all.  There were other guards who were better scorers, quicker off the dribble, bigger and stronger, but he was the most clutch of them all.  Roberson is a scoring point guard in the Will Avery mold  and is very quick and fluid.  He has a nice shooting stroke and isn't shy about taking his jumper.  He had about 19 points in the game I saw, though it took him about 20 shots to get there.  He's also a very smart defender, using his quickness to deny penetration.

   Roberson is very slim but is much stronger than he looks.  He was really hard to guard one-on-one because he was so quick and in control of his dribble.  He could get to the hoop when he wanted to but preferred to take jumpers.  When his team needed a big bucket at the end to hold on, he came up with a huge three that sealed the win.  Anthony is a winner, a lethal scorer and very, very tough.        

  Other players I watched:  

 ** Sani Ibrahim (Atlanta Celtics): The best big man I saw in the tournament. Not at all flashy, he's 6-11/225 and very quick but sturdy.  Excellent shotblocker and defender hit a couple of long jumpers and a floater off the break, as well as attacking the basket.  Very poised and mature.

 ** Ray Felton (Beach Ball Select): The best overall guard I saw in the tournament.  It's hard to evaluate him as a point guard because he didn't have much help (although he apparently had 11 assists in an earlier game), but he's certainly a scorer.  The quickest guard in the tournament with a wide variety of moves.  Not a great shooter, but he can certainly hit the three under pressure.  He will be a starter from day one at UNC.  I saw him play at the Dean Dome to a crowd that was mostly very quiet when the team was down (about 3/4 of the game) but that suddenly got very loud when they came back.  And when they won, the UNC fans acted like the Heels had actually beaten Duke--talk about being starved for wins!  Still and all, Felton is a difference-maker with the kind of scoring skills I haven't seen in Chapel Hill since Kenny Smith. 

 ** Evan Burns (Team dada):  Essentially a one-man team and played like it. Very smooth and athletic forward with great hops and a good three point stroke.  Had trouble at the foul line and I didn't notice him much on defense. Has mentioned liking Duke but I don't think he's a major priority.

 ** Rodrick & Lodrick Stewart (Friends of Hoops-Seattle):  Two rising  juniors who were a lot of fun to watch.  Both are about 6-5/200 and to rely on the old cliche, can jump out of the gym.  Both love to throw down dunks and hit jumpers, with Lodrick being a slightly better shooter and Rodrick preferring to take it to the basket.  They're both Seattle natives and Bob Bender presumably has their number on his speed dial--they could be program makers.

 ** Jackie Butler (Southeast Raptors):  Fundamentally sound and smart rising junior with a strong body.  Rebounded and played solid defense while scoring efficiently.

 ** Chadd Moore (Southeast Raptors): Tough, no-frills point drove hard to the basket and ran his team well.  A leader and winner--it shows.

 ** Lenny Cooke (Long Island Panthers): Amazing athlete with great body control.  Though just 6-6, he played inside a lot while hitting a lot of jumpers as well.  Definitely a top-5 player who may go to the NBA.

 ** Jason Fraser (Long Island Panthers):  I only got to see him play for a few minutes, but this UNC target is an excellent athlete who can take it to the rim.  I heard he had problems at times with his shooting.

 ** Deron Williams (Fort Worth Lions):  Only got to see a bit of him, but he's a crafty point guard with unreal hops. 

 ** Matt Walsh (Raleigh Heat):  Talented and athletic wing man sometimes tried to exceed his limitations and paid for it.  He's a good shooter who sometimes took shots that were way out of his range, a good ballhandler who tried to get tricky one time too many, and a quick player who sometimes tried to rely more on his athleticism than his smarts and got burned by better athletes.  When he stayed within himself, he was very effective, and I see him contributing right away at Florida (his chosen school)--he's not unlike Mike Miller.

 ** Eric Williams (Raleigh Heat):  He has an extremely big body who hustles under the boards.  He doesn't get up and down the court like a gazelle,  but he's quicker and more agile than he seems.  Nice back to the basket moves combined with great strength make him very effective down low.  He's simply a warrior in the blocks, and will be even better when he has some muscular definition to go with his strength.  NC State, Clemson, and Wake are all very interested.

 ** Shawan Robinson (Raleigh Heat):  Decent player was at point guard, though he was more offensive-minded than was healthy for the team at times.  Solid shooter and penetrator was nonetheless outclassed by Ray Felton.

 ** Maurice Ager (Michigan Hurricanes):  Quietly got the job done on the boards and hit a number of big shots.  Pretty much an unknown at this point but he'll be a priority in-state recruit for a lot of teams.

 ** Amare Stoudamire (Fastbreak USA):  Best looking athlete in the entire tournament; unbelievably quick, strong, big and athletic.  He can dribble and play great defense around the basket.  However, he also looked completely out of control in the game I saw him play in and turned the ball over numerous times.  He's committed to Memphis though most folks think he's NBA-bound.

 ** Travis Outlaw (Fastbreak USA):  Superb athlete who can really run & jump is a bit raw at this point.  He's only a rising junior at this point and is 6-8/215--wow!  He's very interested in Duke. 

   Reported by Rob Clough, tmc@duke.edu 

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