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Rob Clough Lives! |
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**
Stanford: Much has been written about this game exposing Duke's
weakness in size and depth, but less has been said about Duke's total
defensive collapse down the stretch.
Stanford was making some great, great shots in their extremely
inspired comeback, but the fact of the matter is that the guards were no
longer putting the kind of pressure they needed to on Stanford's guards to
deny the ball to the post. What
most fans don't understand is that while losing Boozer and Battier was a
huge defensive blow, Duke rarely plays a one-on-one, funnelling style of
defense where we allow the big man to block shots and muscle his man out.
Putting in Sanders or Christensen, as some suggested, would have
done very little to help Duke since neither one up until that point had
shown the ability to deny the ball, and both had shown some severe
problems in defensive positioning. In
a crucial situation down the stretch, Coach K was more comfortable going
to a smaller lineup that should have been aggressively denying the entry
pass than a larger lineup that hadn't shown much resistance to aggressive
post play.
With regard to depth, I think folks tend to
forget that Horvath is injured, and that he was a player who almost
certainly would have come in in that situation.
Even the Matt Christensen who has improved since that game might
have entered, but the way he was playing at that time didn't indicate he
was ready to step up. And
now, with Andre Sweet (a project player frosh anticipated
to contribute further down the line anyway) gone, that leaves a
football walk-on and a last second recruit (Andre Buckner, a player I like
quite a bit but who isn't ready for prime time nor is he needed to be on a
team loaded with capable
perimeter players) as the rest of the bench.
Personally, I will be delighted if Duke can get a steady
7-man rotation and if Christensen is ready to grab it.
All of that aside, it took a Duke defensive collapse, a spirited
Stanford comeback, two missed Dunleavy foul shots, a remarkable shot by
Casey Jacobsen and a near-miss by Williams in a hostile crowd to beat Duke
by a single point. All-in-all, not too terrible a loss. Could it happen again? Quite possibly, but hopefully by the
time March rolls around, Horvath will be healthy and Christensen will be a
consistent, reliable contributor. But
remember: for 35 minutes, Duke was slapping Stanford around with its
incredible team speed and versatility on offense.
On nights when Duke is hot, they are virtually unbeatable.
A word on Casey Sanders. I
love his potential and his fierce competitiveness. But his instincts for
the game simply aren't there yet. When
the game rolls around, he gets lost on defense.
And believe me--Coach K isn't limiting his minutes because he can't
score. He's doing it because
he has trouble moving his feet on defense, not biting on pump-fakes, being
thrown around like a ragdoll when trying to box out and not having the
strength to rip down rebounds when he gets his hands on the ball.
Coach K has never benched a player because they couldn't score (Wojo,
Billy King, and Dan Meagher all come to mind), but will not hesitate to do
so if he feels they aren't ready to play defense. **
NC A&T: This was
one of the worst perimeter defense efforts I've ever seen from a Duke
team. Now, there's no denying
that JJ Miller of A&T had an amazing game, hitting 14-21 from the
field, many of them tough shots. But it's the job of the guards to make
sure that he didn't get the ball in the first place, and to harrass him
incessantly before he could spot up and shoot if he did have the ball.
They didn't, and a hot player got into a rhythm that Duke couldn't
break. Luckily, Jason
Williams and Chris Duhon both have a lot of pride, and were angry about
being beaten so badly. They,
along with Nate James, would take it out on other teams later.
Duke's hot shooting made even Miller's 34 point outburst
meaningless, as Battier and Williams combined for 13 threes.
A&T was playing a very aggressive, scrappy variant of a matchup
zone that left Duke open more often than not, but they tended to recover
rather well. Not much to say
about Shane in this game other than "wow" and "thank
you". 31 points, 4
assists, 3 blocks, 3 steals, 9 rebounds.
Without an ill Carlos Boozer in there, he really took over
defensively. The great thing
about his offense here was that he was diversifying a bit, scoring on a
drive, a post-up and a baseline jumper in addition to his flurry of
threes.
Other interesting performances included yet another high-scoring
game from Jason Williams, a 13-assist show from Chris Duhon, and the
emergence of Matt Christensen as a hustling, thinking player.
He started the game with a muscular dunk on a Duhon feed that
seemed to boost his confidence. The
usually free-throw-challenged player finally got into a nice rhythm and
sank all four of his shots. Best
of all, he dove to the floor to get a steal that
set up an open-court score. **
Florida State: A
routine win on the road against the worst team in the league.
Jason Williams played terrifically against FSU's Delvon Arrington,
a speedy guard who gave Jay some trouble last year. Battier somehow continues to get even better on defense, with
some spectacular blocks. Boozer's
back, and has trouble scoring but is playing some of the best defense of
his life. I think he's
starting to understand what it takes now.
Coach K is pleased by his rebounding performance, ending up with 8.
Christensen fouls out in eleven minutes but Sanders tops him by
getting DQ'd in just five. Matt
once again plays very solid post defense, adding another shot-blocking
threat to Duke's bunch.
FSU has some young, scrappy players but doesn't have the polished
post presence or depth of talent needed to challenge Duke.
A 13-0 run in the first half put Duke up 23-9 and things only got
uglier from there. A very
promising stat: Duke outrebounded FSU 39-26.
The score was only as close as it was because the 'noles hit 7 of
10 threes.
Nate James quietly put up another 20+ point scoring outburst, all
within the flow of the offense. He
hits his threes, he gets offensive rebounds, and he drives to the basket
on occasion, and as the team's fifth option, it's difficult for other
teams to concentrate on him too much.
Williams once again puts up absurd numbers: 26 points, 5 assists.
He does have 5 turnovers, though, so he's still working towards
perfection. **
Clemson: This was a
good old-fashioned statement game. Duke
was still smarting over the way Miller and some of the FSU guards were
able to score on them, and so took it upon themselves to silence one of
the ACC's leading scorers, Will Solomon.
Nate James makes it his personal assignment and he harrassed
Solomon into just 3 first half points, though to his credit Solomon tried
to get other players involved instead of putting up bad shots.
After being down 7-5 in the early going, Duke used huge runs to put
the Tigers away. The first
was 11-0 in response to the early Tiger lead, where Dunleavy and Battier
got steals and immediate scores to start the run.
Some Jason Williams foul shots kept it going.
What followed was a 26-5 Duke run, keyed by every player at one
point or other. Duhon hit a
three off the bench. Boozer started to make his presence felt, especially
on free throws. James hit
several freebies. Williams
hit some foul shots as well, but also scored on an offensive rebound.
The halftime margin of 29 was actually not as bad as it could have
been, since the Tigers scored the last five points of the half.
This fueled Duke's fire a bit for the second half, as they started
on a 19-4 run where Battier and Boozer combined for 12 points.
Boozer was attacking them inside, not missing a shot of any kind in
the game, while Battier was hitting threes.
Duke was up by 43 points with fifteen minutes left in the half--the
game was over. The rest of the game was a blur of Boozer and James free
throws as Duke started emptying the bench with about six minutes left.
What this game meant was that when Duke shoots over 50%, you'd best
hope that several of your players have career games, because they're
difficult to stop once they start that scoring feeding frenzy.
Combine that with owning an advantage on the boards over the bigger
Tigers and forcing 22 turnovers, and you have a very easy game to analyze.
Player-by-Player:
**
Boozer: While on the surface it looks like Carlos has hit a slump (other
than his 25 point, 8-8 FG and 9-9 FT performance against Clemson), I've
actually seen a noticeable improvement in a number of areas. Most prominent among these is defense. Whereas last year Battier had to help extensively when Boozer
was in the game, this year Carlos is moving his feet much better. While
Stanford's big men held him in check offensively for the entire game, it
must also be said that Carlos effectively held them at bay as well. When he fouled out, Duke's defense immediately dropped off as
the Cardinal wisely exploited a weakness.
With Boozer's size and strength, other teams could force Battier
out of position and get easy baskets.
Carlos is also looking much smoother on rebounds, using his power
in a more assured manner. He's
had a lot of success on the offensive boards recently, yet another
positive sign. He will get
plenty of chances from teams who want no part in leaving Duke's shooters
open, and should thrive in most one-on-one matchups.
Carlos is trying to experiment with his offense a bit, taking more
hook shots and long jumpers. So
far, things have looked pretty good, but he's not all that smooth with
these newer (to his Duke career, at least) moves.
Carlos is perhaps the
most important of Duke's players, because he has to be in there to play
defense and get points down low. There's
no one else who can do quite what he does. **
Battier: Shane's performance
of late has been otherworldly. 25
ppg, 7 rpg, 4 apg, 4 spg and 2 bpg just barely outshine his own teammate,
Jason Williams. While his
absurd 17-32 stretch from the three point line is impressive enough,
what's even greater has been his defense.
When Boozer was out against A&T, Battier significantly stepped
up his post defense to help Sanders and Christensen.
He is blocking shots at an alarming rate and will likely overtake
Cherokee Parks at some point this year for second in the modern blocks
career record at Duke. He's
also slowly diversifying his offense, trying to score on drives and
shooting off dribble drives. Shane still finds time to take charges and
play absurd defense in the post and on the perimeter.
About the only negatives I think think of are his lack of
creativity and that it would be nice if he could get to the foul line
a bit more often. It would
also be nice to see him try to take it to the basket a bit more often, but
he's not exactly Grant Hill out there. Still, he still pulls a highly
athletic move out of his repetoire every now and then.
Despite all of the attention and pressure, Shane has consistently
delivered great performances. The
last thing I'd like to see is for him to get a bit more selfish out there.
Down the stretch, he sometimes disappears, and I'd like to see him
demand the ball in those situations. **
Dunleavy: In my opinion, Mike
is the least consistent member of the starting five.
But this is a faint damning because the others have played so well
and very little is asked of Mike, other than to do a little of everything.
Duke's most versatile player, he can handle the ball (though
sometimes is a bit careless with his dribble, perhaps a function of
growing used to his added height), shoot from anywhere on the court,
rebound (to the tune of 5 per game), pass (4.5 assists per), take charges
and even post up. But a
closer look at the numbers shows that Mike isn't the shooter that Battier
is, or the rebounder that Boozer is, or the passer that Williams is, the
leader that James is or the defender that Duhon is.
He's good at everything, but not great at any one skill...at least
not yet. Right now, he has
the luxury of being able to blend in and continue to develop physically
instead of being forced to run the team.
But he improves with each passing game and will be a huge star as a
senior, in much the same way that Battier and Carrawell emerged to
national prominence. Right now, his versatility gives Coach K a lot of options and
helps masks Duke's thin bench. One
last thing: while Mike did miss two critical free throws against Stanford,
he made a number of sensational plays along the way as well. Duke did not shoot well as a team on the line and he
shouldn't be blamed for the misses. After a shaky half in his next game,
he rebounded and played with his usual calm confidence.
Watch for Dunleavy to step up in games where either Battier or
Williams has to sit out because of foul trouble.
**
James: Nate has gone from
chemistry player to someone who's refined his role to such a degree that
he makes a huge impact in every game.
Nate has very few responsibilities, but they are all crucial: 1)
Lock down the other team's biggest scorer.
He's gotten better and better at this as the year has gone on, and
had his best performance against Solomon.
2) Hit the open jumper. This
means depending on the points to get him the ball in position, and
flashing out to the corners or the wing for the open jumper.
He's hitting about 33% from three in the last four games (7-22),
but is also adept at hitting the midrange jumper.
3) Get offensive rebounds. He's **averaging** 5 offensive boards a
game in the last four. These are amazing numbers and have helped Duke win the rebounding
battle in 3 of the last 4 games, and also help Duke get out of the
"one-and-done" syndrome that being a group of jump shooters can
bring. 4) Drive and get
fouled. Nate is 21-27 from the free throw line in the past four games,
more than anyone else on the team. When
it's there, he'll use a sneaky baseline drive to get past opponents who
expect to see him as only a spot-up shooter.
What Nate isn't doing are things he can't do: create on the break,
dribble, and try to create his own shot.
He flirted with such activities early in the year,
and would promptly get benched to remind him of his role.
Staying within his role has given him the opportunity to put up
some big numbers and potentially get him a job in the pros. **
Williams: Jason averaged 24
ppg, 5 apg, 5 rpg, 1.2 spg and was 31-65 from the field.
These are national player of the year numbers, folks. He's also
been generating a number of turnovers, often getting a steal & dunk
every game. His ability to
penetrate and either dish off or finish is remarkable.
A Will-Avery type floater or finger roll would make him completely
unstoppable, but his ability to throw down dunks or stop on a dime and
nail a jumper still make him a huge headache to guard.
He very nearly pulled off a win against Stanford, but his jumper
wouldn't quite fall. His
range has become impressive as he has become more adept at using screens
to get open shots. His
decision-making is becoming increasingly mature as he learns to read
defenses on the fly, but he still makes a lot of mistakes, as his 4
turnovers per game will attest. His risk-taking nature will mean that turnovers will always
follow him to an extent, but I'd rather see an aborted alley-oop attempt
instead of passing the ball into a double-teamed man. His defense has become very impressive, though he's not
always as intense as he needs to be, and so has been beaten by some
determined opponents. But
when Jason's on and ready to dominate an opponent, there have
been few players as impressive in the entire country.
**
Duhon: Of all the prime-time
players who have played at Duke, the only one who was less interested in
scoring than Chris Duhon was Grant Hill.
In these past 4 games, he's scored a total of 18 points on 5-15
shooting, but one can't say that he's played badly.
In fact, he's been one of Duke's most important players because of
his playmaking (26 assists) and defense (5 steals).
His presence has helped make Jason a player of the year candidate,
because Williams no longer has to worry about fouling out or getting
tired. At this stage of his
career, he's content to be an ultimate chemistry player.
When he's on the floor, he prefers to be the fifth option at all
times, despite his beautiful jumper and ability to penetrate.
This is not always a good thing, because he sometimes goes to
absurd lengths to avoid shooting or takes impossibly long jumpers with the
shot clock running down. Duhon
has not proven to be one of the best freshmen in the country in terms of
his stats, but his presence adds stability to Duke's mix, a catalyst to
fire up the power of the starting five's offensive potency. Duke
didn't need a huge offensive star off the bench; they needed a capable
defender and playing this unselfish role has improved the quality of
Duke's defense. **
Christensen: A few games ago,
he was nearly glued to the bench. In
fact, against Stanford, Coach K brought in Chris Duhon when Battier fouled
out because he was reluctant to use any of his young big men.
But something happened against A&T.
He got mad. He threw
down a beautiful reverse dunk early in the game, and this fired him to get
several boards and dive after a loose ball that lead to a transition
basket. He kept it going
against FSU; while he did foul out in just 11 minutes, he threw down
another dunk on a nice feed and blocked some shots.
He was less effective against Clemson, but played 12 minutes and
had a couple of boards. He's
even begun to hit his free throws. Matt's
game is far from perfect. He
still throws the ball away too much or brings it down.
He still has trouble hitting a lay-up and fouls way too much, but
he brings a physical presence and maturity that his team really needs. **
Sanders: Allow me to preface
my comments by stating that I still like Casey's potential, and his raw
athleticism can be breathtaking. That
said, it's clear that he isn't capable of making smooth and quick reads at
either end of the floor. While
he produced several jaw-dropping dunks thanks to his ability to jump over
everyone else in transition, he frequently thinks too much on offense. Defensively, he did net 3 blocks against A&T and a couple
against Clemson, but his 9 fouls in 36 minutes are a big part of what's
keeping him on the bench. The
fouls mean he's aggressive, but also that he's playing defense with his
hands, not his feet, a big no-no in the Coach K system.
More damning than the fouls is this stat: in those 36
aforementioned minutes, he has exactly 1 rebound.
It's not that he isn't trying, it's that he's getting boxed out by
bigger, stronger players. Now, certainly Casey feels nervous when he's on the court
because he knows his time is limited, but this kind of motivation should
be able to help a mature player to focus and give his all. Instead, Casey comes out quiet and out of position on
defense--the one thing Coach K will not tolerate. While the 7-man rotation is starting to coalesce, Casey still
has a chance to contribute, if he gets smarter on defense. **
Love: The athletic frosh's
most significant game action came against FSU, where he pulled down 4
rebounds and hit a transition basket.
Love is clearly not ready to be a real contributor to the team, but
he must be having a pretty big impact in practice with his ability to leap
and run. **
Buckner: Andre only got off
the bench against Clemson, which is only fitting
since that's where his brother played.
**
Caldbeck/Simpson/Borman: Borman
had a career-high 6 points against Clemson, on his birthday no less.
Simpson had a cameo appearance against Stanford for fouling
purposes. Reported by Rob Clough, tmc@duke.edu
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Rob is a thirty one year old Duke grad who's been an ACC fan since he was nine years old, when a young Duke team was beaten in the finals by Kentucky. Since that time, he has been fascinated by the entire league and started writing volumes on it in rec.sport.basketball.college and other electronic forums in 1991. Recently, he has been writing ACC analyses for Jazzy J's colbasketball.miningco.com site and regularly contributes features on women's basketball for the Duke Basketball Report. |