Previewing UCLA

by

David Brumfield

The sweet sixteen will always see its share of Cinderellas, Gonzaga alone seems to have an Imelda Marcos sized collection of glass slippers, but it is actually the home of the elite.  The Sweet sixteen is the annual, by invitation only, convention of the top programs of NCAA hoops.  Look at your brackets and see stalwarts like Kentucky and Duke, the nouveau riche Stanford and Michigan State and the belles of the ball Kansas and Arizona who always seem to leave the party (alone and disoriented) much earlier then expected.

Included among these elite are the Bruins.  Imagine Cornelius Vanderbilt’s great-great-grandson with a nose-ring, blasting Eminem on his walk-man and wearing his favorite Marilyn Manson t-shirt.  He belongs not because of what he did but because his family name is enough to bolster his resume.

Steve Lavin is not the Wizard of Westwood, hell he is not even the bumbling apprentice of Fantasia fame, but four out of five Sweet Sixteens, and the gold and light blue Jacket will get him past security.  Lavin may have been on the cusp of losing his job earlier this season but yet again he has his underachieving troops peaking in February and March where it does him the most good.

UCLA has had its highs, beating Stanford in Maples Pavillion, and its usual Marianas trench lows, you do know they lost to Cal State Northridge, but they have rebounded from a 4-4 start to win 19 of their next 23 games.  If UCLA plays the way it did at Stanford this game could be an instant classic, if it plays the way it did against UC Irvine you’ll see Andy Borman’s first career double double.

The match-ups work especially well for Duke.  UCLA goes 8 deep with the three bench players being essentially role players.  They do have a good post player in Dan Gadzuric but he is not the earth mover type that really scares Casey.

I do not know enough about Lavin's coaching strategies to predict who the defensive match-ups will be, but here is my best guess as to what the match-ups will be and how they will work out.

Center:            Dan Gadzuric, 6’11” 248lbs, is a poor man’s Alvin Jones. At 6’11” 265lbs, think Alvin Jones last year.  Their offense is similar but Jones is a much superior defender.  Gadzuric has disappeared quite regularly, but over the last six games he has averaged better than 12 pts 11 rebs and 3.5 blocks.  When he is intense he can be very effective, i.e. great field goal percentage and 13 or 14 rebounds.  But he is not dominant, he has only led UCLA in scoring twice.  Gadzuric as always been seen as ready to explode because he would seem to be more talented than his play would indicate.  Like most big men he can fall victim to foul trouble.  If he does UCLA is in big trouble.

               Casey Sanders had perhaps is best game of the season against Alvin Jones.  Both Jones and Gadzuric are somewhat slimmer more athletic shot blockers.  Though neither are as wisp thin as Casey they are not wide bodies who can toss Casey off the low blocks either.  If Casey can stay behind Gadzuric and hold his ground I don’t think Gadzuric has the offensive arsenal necessary to torch Casey.  On offense Casey will need to catch the ball and take it up strong.  If Gadzuric plays off Casey to help on penetration Casey just needs to finish half of his open dunks to serve his purpose and keep Gadzuric honest.

                        Carlos Boozer will be playing on pure adrenaline Thursday, for at least the first five minutes.  If Carlos plays the way he played against Wake and Maryland before his injury, 36 pts 20 rebs on 15-24 shooting combined over 53 minutes, he will win the match-up with Gadzuric.  If he plays the way he did against Stanford and UNC he will get about 12 minutes of court time.  Again if Carlos plays comparably to the way he played against Jones (9pts and 5 rebs in 19 minutes) things should be fine.

EDGE:             Duke if Carlos is in pre-injury form for 20 minutes or more, otherwise UCLA.

Power forward:            Matt Barnes is a mystery to me.  In the last six games he has scored 8, 9, 11, 13, 21, and 32 points, he has taken between 7 and 19 shots over that span and he exploded for 7 assists against both Washington State and Cal.  He is a very consistent rebounder, 8pg over the last 6 7.2 pg for the year.  Size-wise Barnes, 6’7” 230  matches up very well with Battier, 6’8” 220.  Barnes is not as athletic and will certainly have trouble with Shane.  Additionally Barnes should not stray to far from the basket as his 3-25 3pt shooting will attest.

                                    Shane should be able to light Barnes up like a Hollywood premier.  I doubt Barnes will play in Shane’s face on the perimeter, if he does expect Shane to take the ball to the hoop, and most likely right at Gadzuric hopefully getting the hoop and the harm.  On defense Battier should be helped by guarding the blue collar Barnes as it will allow him to help on Gadzuric and any Watson penetration.  Barnes will most likely get a few offensive rebound tip-ins or jams but that should be it.

EDGE:             Shane.  If you got to this review I don’t have to say anything else.

 Small Forward:            Remember when Jason Kapono, 6’7” 199, was going to turn pro last year.  Sorry but 17 pts 6 rebs and 2 assts do not scream lottery to me.  45.5% from three looks good, but the 44.5% from the field tells me there are a lot of bad jumpers in there.  Kapono is more of a shooter than a scorer, Dixon, Forte, Jacobsen and Rush are all better scorers, and all are also more athletic.  If Kapono guarded Jacobsen in their two match-ups, and having not seen the game I do not know, he did very well keeping Jacobsen below his averages both games including a 5-18 shooting disaster.

                                    Mike Dunleavy, 6’9” 204, is the man.  Sorry just wanted to fairly and clearly disclose my bias.  Dunleavy is averaging 15 pts and 6 rebs over the last six games as the clear third option on offense.  He can score inside or out.  He has shown the willingness to take the mid-range jumper that none of the other devils are willing to try.  And though he will make his share of turnovers trying to do the spectacular when the impressive would do, he has come up big at the end of close games.  Defensively Mike has seemed to wear down a bit, although I think most people would have been torched by Kareem Rush.  He is not getting as many steals as he was earlier in the season (although that may also be a result of his heightened rebounding responsibilities).  I expect Mike to have a great game defensively and shut down Kapono, who struggled against Jacobsen.  If not Battier may guard Kapono and Mike would hang out with Barnes.

EDGE:             The edge has to go to Kapono due to his ability to regularly drain the three.  That said I expect to see Dunleavy out-rebound, out-steal and out-assist Kapono while still scoring 14 points to Kapono’s 16.

Shooting guard: Who the heck is Billy Knight.  For the season he averages 17 minutes 7 pts and 2 rebs.  At 6’5” 210 Knight would seeming to be suited to a slasher type game but more than half of his shots are from behind the arc, where he shoots .427%.  Knight is neither a ballhandler nor a ballhawk.  I’m hard pressed to see what he brings to the table other than the three.

                                   18 year old fifth year senior Chris Duhon brings quite a bit to the table.  Duhon’s presence is undoubtedly causing Steve Lavin to question whether the press will work.  Additionally it is most likely Duhon who will have to guard Earl Watson.  Duhon has shown the ability to harass opposing players into turnovers and five second calls through his intoxicating blend of aggressive risk taking, excellent recovery speed and a manic energy level.  Whether Duhon chooses to shoot the three or to dish to open teammates he always finds a way to help.  Over the last six games he has averaged 8 pts 4 assts and 2.5 steals a game.  Over that same period his assist to turnover ratio is 2.5/1, which is actually below his season average of 3/1.

 EDGE:             Duhon in a landslide.  His ability to do it all makes Duhon the ace up K’s sleeve.

 Point guard:            Earl Watson, is an excellent point guard, meaning that he would be the third best point guard on Duke’s roster.  That said Watson has the ability to give Duke some trouble.  He puts pressure on Chris and Jason with his penetration and if he is hitting the three he will extend the defense along with Kapono.  Over the last six he is averaging 16 pts 4 rebs 4 assts 2 steals and 4 turnovers.  Over that period he has hit better than 50% of his shots despite being just 7-24 from 3pt.

                         J-Will, J-Will rock U-CLA.  I have no doubt that Jason will take the ball past Watson and challenge Gadzuric.  Now that Boozer is back you can expect at least 4 Jason to Los penetration drop-offs.  If Jason is hitting his three Watson should have that very familiar look, you know the one, “I’m going to the NBA so I don’t have to face this level of competition.”  Defensively Jason should get a fair share of rest of Mr. Knight.  Although when he guards Watson he will have to make Earl beat him from 3 rather than allow penetration.

 EDGE:             Best point guard in basketball versus best point guard at UCLA since Baron Davis.  Let’s go with the All-American.

 Bench:            The three players off the UCLA bench are Ryan Bailey, Ray Young and T.J Cummings.  None has shown any great ability they average a composite 37 total minutes 5 pts 3 rebs 2 assists and 2 steals.

                         In contrast over that same period Nate, Love and Christansen have averaged 15 pts 10 rebs and 2 steals in a combined 46 minutes a game.  Now it would be more accurate to replace Nate with Casey making it 7 pts 7 rebs and 2 blocks a game but either way it works.

EDGE:             All you need is Love, and Colonel Sanders playing like he did against Georgia Tech.

Coaching:            HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

Overall:            UCLA has been living off the press.  With its ball handlers and passing ability Duke is an extremely tough team to press or trap.  Also the half court traps are defeated using two Duke staples spreading the floor and cross-court passes.  Watch for Lavin to try to use the trap to slow us down.  Also watch for it to not work.

                        With the emotion that Carlos should bring to the game I expect Duke to jump out early and take command.  If this team is like last year’s UCLA squad it will fold.  Otherwise it will be a game of runs with Duke in control throughout the second half.

                        My prediction 97-73

****************

Dave, although convinced he is right, would appreciate your comments on his column at Dave@DukeUpdate.com