By
DAVID BRUMFIELD
I probably know less about basketball than about a third of the people that will read this preview. The reason I write it is not because I believe I can provide keen insight or an accurate analysis, it is because I cannot wait until the season begins and writing this preview will ease my pain.
That said I am willing to defend everything I write. So please feel free to praise, criticize, critique or even lambaste if you are so inclined (especially praise). I only have a couple of rules: 1) If you do not think Jason Williams is the best player in the country don’t write to me we have no frame of reference on which to base a conversation; 2) if you are writing just to say I am a Duke lover who has lost his objectivity you shouldn’t waste your time (mainly because I never had any objectivity, nor do I want it) and 3) don’t try to e-mail Jason D'Amico and say bad things about me, without my wife and me he doesn’t have a babysitter.
Coaching:
If last season proved anything to me it was that any discussion of Duke must begin with Coach K. The job K did in the first 29 games was great, but his coaching for the last ten games was the greatest coaching job since at least the 1985 NCAA championship between Villanova and Georgetown, why else would I know Rollie Massimino.
It was one thing for K to make the best of the situation when Boozer was injured, but to reincorporate him completely was astonishing. The team that had emerged from the crucible of Boozer’s injury leaner, faster and more aggressive, welcomed back the big bear with open arms and a more open attack. Boozer and the team both adjusted (I’d really like to say seamlessly here but I saw the first 12 minutes of the last Maryland game and those memories prohibit such a statement).
K’s challenge this year is very different. He must keep his team hungry. He must foster the development of leaders without forcing a leader of his choosing on the team. And he must decide how to handle the rather rampant undefeated talks.
Expect K to have some fun this year. He will have at least a four man bench available and eventually five (Love). He has two experienced point guards, two excellent perimeter defenders and a schedule that will test his team early.
With K you can be sure we won’t lose a game from the bench, if we are going to lose it will be on the court.
Backcourt:
Jason Williams will be player of the year.
I was originally going to leave my preview at just that one sentence because I have nothing to add to the mounds of praise that have been heaped on J-Will. But I now realize there is something that has not been discussed enough, Jason’s example.
I am starting to admire Jason more as a man, yes that term is appropriate, than as a player. Jason’s teammates all know that he would have been the number one pick of the NBA draft. He would have been in a backcourt with Michael Jordan and even ardent Duke fans such as myself must admit that playing with Jordan is better than playing with Duhon. Imagine the message Boozer and Duhon take from Jason’s choice. By staying Jason has announced to his teammates that this year’s team is too special to leave just for a few million dollars and the chance to play with the greatest athlete of all-time.
Whether Jason made his choice so that he could get his degree or so he could enjoy this basketball season is irrelevant what matters is that he looked past the spotlight and the flash bulbs and saw the big picture proving that his great vision is not limited to the court.
Chris Duhon, When I first thought about writing this preview I thought of my bold prediction, “Chris Duhon will be the best point guard in the country.” Well, thanks to Frank Builson and a few others that is not a very bold pick anymore.
Duhon’s bandwagon got a little crowded at the World Championships in Japan (I was going to make a rickshaw reference but I did not know if they were Japanese or Chinse, nor am I sure of the spelling). Being the starting point guard on a team that could choose from nearly any point guard in the country, with the notable exception of Jason Williams, tends to open some eyes.
I did not need to wait that long; I was sold in that 10 game run from March 4 to April 2 during which Duhon averaged 8.4 pts 4 assts 3.6 rebs 2.5 stl and 1.7 turnovers. Any freshmen who puts up those numbers during the ACC and NCAA tournaments is going to be a stud.
I just have one question regarding Duhon: can he improve without becoming too much like Jason? Last year the thing I loved most about the Jason Chris backcourt was the fire and ice element. Williams was so explosive, burning with passion, scorching opponents like a raging fire. Duhon was cool as ice. His defense was like a snow drift, opposing point guards waded in without knowing what there were getting themselves into, soon to find themselves smothered. On offense he played with precision more than passion he was cool not fiery but most importantly, he was reserved.
From all accounts Duhon will not be reserved this season. He paid his dues and earned respect last year. Over the summer he made a name. This season he gets to be a star. During the World Championships, the Blue White Game and the EA sports game Duhon’s turnovers have been on the rise. No longer do we see the 2.8/1 assist/ turnover ratio, nor do we see the three shot night. Duhon will contribute greatly to this team and he still may be one of the top point guards in college basketball, but I think I’ll miss the iceman.
Dahntay Jones It’s a few weeks before Christmas. My parents put a large box wrapped in silver paper next to where the tree will be. When they leave the house I examine the box for size, weight, smell, airholes and sound it makes upon shaking. Is it a TV? Is it a computer? Is it the complete works of Dosteovsky? Chances are its somewhere between the computer and the books. Unfortunately my heart is set on the computer and I will be disappointed Christmas Day.
Carlos Boozer is an enigma. Last year I said this of Carlos “No one has ever doubted Carlos Boozer’s talent. What they seem to question is possible Haywoodism (a word meaning bewildering absence of effort or pride). Though I certainly do not know Carlos and have never met him I severely doubt this criticism.” Last year Carlos sort of proved me right. Carlos on his worst night is a good ACC center. On his best night he is the most dangerous post player in college basketball. From the Wake game on last year, including the world championships and the two scrimmages, nearly all nights were good nights. If Carlos plays the way he did in late February and late March Duke will literally be the irresistible force offensively.
If Carlos plays defense the way he did against Baxter and Woods at the final four you can book your tickets now for a return trip to the final four.
Carlos has proven to K and his teammates, not to mention me, that he understands what is required of him, and he is ready to give it night in and night out.
Kansas – Gooden and Collison are as good as they come but Heinrich and Boschee are only good. Duke’s backcourt edge to big for Kansas to overcome.
Florida – Haslem and Nelson are not enough to match-up with Duke’s starting five.
UCLA – Kapono is the only threat and Gadzuric still seems like a poor man’s Alvin Jones.
Kentucky – If they had Parker I’d rank them as the second best team in the country. Without Parker and with a freshman point guard having to face Duhon and Williams they drop a few spots.
Illinois – Sporting News aside they won’t do it this year though they are the third best team in the country (and could be second depending on what kind of coaching job Gary Williams does when he is not an underdog). Frank Williams is one of the few guys who won’t look like a fool going toe-to-toe with Jason Williams. After Williams Bradford is way overrated, Cook is a huge underachiever, Archibald good but not great, and who knows what Johnson will be like when he gets healthy. Biggest thing in their corner: Self has already climbed in to my top 5 coaches list.
Maryland – We spend a little extra time with Maryland.
Baxter v. Boozer – Baxter is a wide body. Boozer is big, strong and quick. Boozer has the edge in quickness and perhaps a slight edge in low post moves. Baxter is a slightly better defender and is better at holding position given has unusually large rump. The match-up is a clear draw but one that I would pay a lot of money to watch.
Holden v. Dunleavy – If Holden ever learns to use his size this match-up may become interesting. Until then Dunleavy will take Holden out to the perimeter; if Holden plays off Dunleavy he shoots the three, if he plays tight Dunleavy puts it on the floor. Big edge Dunleavy.
Mouton v. Jones – Mouton is a pest. He gets big baskets, big rebounds and otherwise does big things in big games. That said I do not think he is Dahntay’s equal either offensively or defensively. Edge Jones.
Dixon v. Duhon – Dixon is the one player in college basketball that I would love to steal and put in Duke Blue. He is also one of the few guys I would give the edge to over Duhon. He scores he defends and he leads, doesn’t get much better than that.
Blake v. Williams – Say all you want about their individual match-ups Williams wins hands down. By the way terp fans, don’t expect Blake to ever shut down Jason again.
Bench – Sanders, Horvath, Ewing and Christensen give Duke a great bench, especially considering the versatility of Duke’s starters. Wilcox and Cephas are the heart and soul of Maryland’s bench but Williams does have some freshmen who could provide a boost. Draw (but only because I do not care).
Coaching – Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!!!!!
I think you know where I’ll put my money when the March Madness office pools start circulating.
Stat prediction (Boy is this a bad idea)
Name Pts Reb Assts To
Boozer
15
9
1
1
Dunleavy 15
7
4
1
Jones 12
4
3
2
Duhon
11
3
7
3
Williams 19
3
6
3
Sanders
7
7
1
2
Ewing
6
2
2
1
Horvath
9
3
1
1
Christensen
3
4
0
2
97 42 25 16
Conclusions
A lot of Duke haters will whine and moan that Duke is on TV about 35 times this year. But the fact is that those games may be the most beautiful basketball since the Lakers' showtime days with Magic, Worthy, Kareem and their supporting cast.
Duke basketball is the ultimate evolution of playground basketball into a team concept. Its freewheeling open and frenetic, but it is also unselfish and demanding. Defensively its all about hustle.
So come November 18 sit back and enjoy : it just does not get much better than this.
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Dave, although convinced he is right, would appreciate your comments at Dave@DukeUpdate.com