SWISS KEEGS 2009 BLUE-WHITE GAME RECAP

 Boy I love this time of year….We enjoyed a great weekend with a double dose of Duke hoops (the “Countdown to Craziness” on Friday and open practice on Saturday), my Yanks won in 13 innings Saturday to go up 2-0 in the ALCS, and my fantasy football squads managed an unprecedented 4-0 week.  Apparently a cold front came through the Triangle, but as far as I was concerned it was 78 and sunny all weekend long.

The Countdown to Craziness, in addition to the annual Blue-White intra-squad game, included player skits, fan contests, and a highly-entertaining slam dunk competition.  Duke legends Laettner, Hurley, and J-Will were also in the house for the event, and took home a series of “Crazies Choice” awards voted on online by the fans – Laettner got the “Greatest Buzzer Beater” nod in probably the least surprising vote of all-time.  As has been the case the past few years, the team split into two squads and played two twelve-minute mini “games,” with some players switching teams for the second contest.

 Duke Gridiron Tangent

 Before offering my initial views on the 2009-2010 edition of the hoops team, I want to give some props to Coach Cut and the football squad.  Sure 3-3 isn’t exactly BCS-worthy, but the team is playing very competitive football in a solid conference.  In case you haven’t been paying attention, Duke lost a hard-fought contest to then #6 Virginia Tech in Blacksburg 34-26 before throttling N.C. State on the road 49-28.  While Duke doesn’t have any really quality wins on its resumé, it also has only one bad loss (the opener against 1-AA powerhouse Richmond) and the two other losses were against Virginia Tech and Kansas, ranked 14^th and 25^th, respectively, in the latest BCS standings. 

 Senior QB Thad Lewis is absolutely carrying the offense, which managed 83 points the last two games despite gaining an anemic 81 yards on the ground on 66 carries.  Thad put up 818 yards passing, 7 TDs and no picks in the games versus Virginia Tech and N.C. State and is accounting for 68% of Duke’s yards from scrimmage in 2009.  Below are the stats for a group of QBs that includes some high profile, Heisman hopefuls.

 You probably see where I’m headed with this, but Thad is QB C.  QB A is Colt McCoy of Texas, B is Notre Dame’s Jimmy Clausen, and D is 2008 Heisman winner Tim Tebow.  I’m not making the case Thad is as good as any of these guys, but his numbers are pretty competitive and he has a lot less talent surrounding him.  Thad now ranks 26^th in passing yards and 20^th in completions in the country despite riding the pine for the majority of Army game.  He’s also scored three of the team’s five TDs on the ground, and put up these numbers despite opposing defenses not having to honor the run with the Devils averaging just 83 yards a game on 2.6 yards per attempt.  Let’s hope the team can pull off a 3-3 finish or better and be bowl eligible for the first time in 15 years.

 Hoops Outlook

 Back to the hardcourt…I like what I saw this weekend.  Coach K has said this is likely the biggest team he’s ever coached (four players 6’10” or taller that will see a lot of action) and I think it’s probably the most athletic we’ve had since 2002-2003.  For example, I really can’t imagine last year’s Devils managing to pull off such an entertaining dunk contest (it would’ve been a one-man show starring Gerald Henderson).  On Friday, we had three players – co-champions Olek Czyz and frosh Andre Dawkins as well as McDonalds’ All-American Mason Plumlee – putting on an aerial display that wouldn’t have seemed out of place had it taken place on NBA All-Star Weekend.  The quality of jams was so strong that Mason’s Vince Carter-esque elbow into the cylinder effort earned what amounted to a collective yawn by the judges and the crowd and an early exit from the competition.  In fact, Plumlee placed higher in last summer’s McDonalds Game slam dunk competition (2^nd) than in Friday night’s contest.

 The team’s size and athleticism is a very promising combination and should allow Duke to be much more effective on the defensive end.  With Singler manning the three alongside two other big bodies, rebounding should be a real strength for the first time in several years.  In addition, there shouldn’t be many easy looks inside for the opposition with four legitimate shot-blockers in the rotation.  On the perimeter, Smith and Scheyer should form one of the better defensive backcourts in the conference, and they’ll be able to be more aggressive applying pressure and closing out on shooters with a trio of shot-blockers backing them up.

 Backcourt depth could be an issue – an injury to one of the three scholarship guards would be disastrous – and there’s still uncertainty about how the frontcourt minutes will be divvied up (Coach K has suggested both Plumlee brothers would get the starting nod if the season began today).   However, we have excellent depth up front, with seasoned vets (Thomas and Zoubek) and the athletic, high-ceiling Plumlee brothers.  If K can get enough production out of this group of bigs to have more inside/outside balance the on offensive end, then it is likely that Duke’s recent propensity for long scoring droughts – typically when the perimeter shots aren’t falling and we’re not able to get easy looks in transition – will occur far less frequently.

 The veteran nucleus – Scheyer, Singler, and Smith – played very well and demonstrated great leadership on and off the court.  It was particularly encouraging to see Nolan playing with such confidence.  In addition to compiling some sick stats (game-high 25 points on 10-14 shooting, 7 assists and no turnovers), he seemed much more in control (e.g. pulling up for short jumpers in transition instead of forcing a contested shot closer to the rim) and made consistently solid decisions.  Nolan even converted both free throws with less than a second remaining to secure the win for his team in the second game to cap off a great night.

 One through fourteen, it’s a really good group of guys that’s easy to root for.  My gut feeling is that the chemistry could be better than it has been in a couple of years, led by Thomas’ willingness to accept a reduced role in his senior season for the benefit of the program.  We should compete for the ACC crown and could make a run at Final Four if the Plumlees develop quickly and we remain largely injury-free (particularly on the perimeter).

 Player Notes

 Kyle Singler – Singler put in his typical, well-rounded effort with 20 points (including 4-7 on threes), 5 boards and 5 assists in 23 minutes of play.  The intensity and aggressiveness is always there with Kyle, even in an intra-squad scrimmage.  While I’m not sure the new shaggy do (think 6’8” Danny Pintauro from Who’s the Boss?) was the right call, I can’t find many flaws in Singler’s game.  He should really benefit from the move to the three this year, as he seems more natural on the wing either shooting from deep or taking his man off the bounce than he does with his back to the basket.  Nevertheless, I’m not sure there’s another small forward in the league that can handle him on the block, so hopefully Duke looks to exploit mismatches by going to him in the post periodically and he improves on his 44% shooting from a season ago.  It was also good to see Kyle looking to set up his teammates more frequently – he’s going to receive even more attention from defenses this season with the loss Henderson and can be an effective facilitator.  Look for a big season from Singler – he’s a preseason first-team All-American and I don’t see why he can’t live up to those lofty expectations.

 Jon Scheyer – More than anyone else, this is Scheyer’s team.  He is more vocal than Singler and should be a very capable leader on and off the court in his senior season.  Scheyer will move back to the off guard position for the majority of his minutes after successfully making the transition to the point a year ago.  The change should keep Jon fresher at the end of games and, as with Singler, the improved talent on the offensive end around him should help Scheyer improve on his subpar shooting (40%) from last season.  In addition to scoring 18 points in the scrimmage, Scheyer racked up a ridiculous 12 assists without turning the ball over a single time in 23 minutes.

 Nolan Smith – I already showered Nolan with praise above, but he needs to continue his momentum deeper into the season.  He was highly impressive in the preseason last year and began the regular season strongly, but faded – in part due to injuries – once the ACC schedule kicked in and is too talented a player to not make a more consistent positive impact.  With any uncertainty regarding his role now gone and 30+ minutes guaranteed on a nightly basis, I think Nolan will take a major leap this year and put up 13-15 points and 4-5 assists a contest.  Nolan also got one of the biggest laughs of the night when he shed his regular uniform during the dunk contest to reveal a size small Johnny Dawkins #24 jersey and short shorts.

 Miles Plumlee – Miles put in a solid effort on Friday, with 10 points, 6 boards, and a surprising 4 steals in 21 minutes.  I was overly-optimistic about Miles’ likely contribution a year ago at this time, so I’ll reserve my judgment about his 2009-2010 prospects until I see him play in a game that counts.  Nevertheless, he should benefit from playing alongside kid bro Mason and the vote of confidence from Coach K, who has penciled him in as the starting center.  He’s put on 10-15 pounds of muscle since last season which should help him hold his position down low.  We know Miles’ athleticism allows him to convert lob passes into two-handed rim-rockers and to swap opponents’ shot attempts seemingly out of nowhere, but he disappointed on the boards last season (particularly on the defensive end) given his size and leaping ability with just 8.2 rebounds per 40 minutes.  He needs to continue to work on his positioning on defense and the boards and develop one or two high percentage go-to moves when he gets the ball deep – the jump hook remains inconsistent. 

Mason Plumlee – This was my first time seeing Mason outside of highlight reels and the McDonalds Game.  He’s listed at 6’10” but appears at least an inch taller than Miles and flashed immense potential that is not reflected in Friday night’s boxscore (just two points on 1-3 shooting, 6 boards and 4 turnovers in 21 minutes).  Miles is more explosive and skilled than his older brother.  He attacked the offensive glass on every shot attempt, displayed strong court awareness and ball-handling ability for a near seven-footer in penetrating and kicking to teammates on multiple occasions, and even seemed comfortable handling the rock in transition.  During Saturday practice, he impressed with some acrobatic moves around the basket.  Both Plumlees should wreak havoc on the offensive boards and finish at the rim well – the key will be whether they will be physical enough to control the paint on defense and hold opponents to one shot, and whether they will present enough of a threat on offense to keep defenses honest and create opportunities for Singler, Scheyer and Smith.

 Andre Dawkins – With Elliot Williams transferring to Memphis to be closer to his ailing mother, we are really fortunate that Dawkins bypassed his final year of high school eligibility and took extra courses this summer to graduate early and enroll at Duke.  I had heard that Dawkins was athletic, but he was much more powerful and explosive than I anticipated.  He put on a show in the dunk contest, throwing down windmill jams with authority – he even converted one spectacular dunk off a toss off the side of the backboard.  He’s listed at 6’4”, 190 lbs, but I would be surprised if he’s not closer to 210.  While Dawkins will probably be a downgrade from Williams defensively – at least at this stage of his career – he has the physical tools to be a strong defender in time.  Offensively, Dawkins will be much more of a threat given a solid-looking jump shot (a glaring weakness for the aforementioned Williams) and his ability to take contact and still convert plays inside.  Dawkins came out firing and it’s clear that he doesn’t lack confidence.  He’s a gunner that will need to learn to make his teammates better to achieve his full potential – he failed to register an assist in 21 minutes and took the ball to the rim himself rather than feeding an open teammate on two 2-on-1 breaks.  Fortunately, he converted both shots (drawing the foul as well on one attempt), but he better finish plays if he’s going to pass up Singler on the break.  Dawkins finished with 14 points on 6-12 shooting (the third most attempts behind Singler and Smith).

 Lance Thomas – Thomas, senior co-captain with Scheyer, will likely make his most significant contributions in terms of leadership, helping to develop the younger players, and demonstrating the kind of defensive effort that is required at Duke – rather than putting up gaudy stats.  Lance may even see a slight reduction from the 18.6 minutes a game he played a season ago with the addition of Mason and Ryan Kelly.  Duke is fortunate to have such a high-energy, efficient (63% shooting a year ago), seasoned forward off the bench.

 Brian Zoubek – For what seems like the first time in his Duke tenure, Big Z experienced a healthy offseason and looks like he’s in the best condition of his career.  Like Thomas, he’ll likely take a backseat to the younger bigs in his senior season.  However, there certainly will be games where Zoub will be needed, and he is very capable of making a solid impact in spurts with his ability to defend the basket and get high-percentage looks in the post or on stick-backs.  I feel like Zoubek has always been somewhat underappreciated – yes there are some matchups in which he’ll struggle, but for his career he’s a 57% shooter and has averaged 14.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per 40 minutes of action.  Other random notes – Z’s sporting a new beard and came out to Ice Ice Baby doing the Vanilla Ice dance during player introductions.

 Seth Curry – Duke could really use Curry, the Liberty transfer who is best known as Dell Curry’s son/Stephen Curry’s younger brother, this season.  He’ll sit out this season under NCAA transfer rules, but displayed the court awareness, shooting touch, quick release, and quickness reminiscent of his older brother.  It’s been well-publicized that Curry led all NCAA freshman in scoring a season ago with 20.2 points a game.  Seth struggled with his shot and decision-making (he turned the ball over six times overall) in the first game, but came on in the second with three quick triples to finish with 10 points (3-9 shooting including 3-7 from downtown) and 5 boards.  He should improve significantly with a year of practice with the team and be a major contributor in 2010-2011 a la prior Duke transfers Roshown McLeod and Dahntay Jones.

 Ryan Kelly – The highly-touted Kelly (First-Team Parade All-American) has been a bit of a disappointment the two times I’ve watched him – the McDonalds Game and last Friday.  At 6’10” with a fundamentally strong stroke (he won the McDonalds three-point contest), he certainly has the potential to be a big-time scorer.  However, he seems to be somewhat one-dimensional at this stage and may struggle to contribute on the defensive end or the boards despite his length (he’ll need to add muscle to his 220 lb. frame).  He seems particularly tentative in going after boards – he grabbed just 2 of them in 16 minutes on Friday.  However, you can’t teach 6’10” and he can shoot the jumper effectively off the bounce or the pass, so he can be quite a weapon off the bench when the team is struggling to knock down shots.  He seems like a sharp kid and I’m optimistic he’ll improve in his current areas of weakness and be a consistently strong contributor that plays significant minutes at some point – but probably not in 2009-2010. 

 Olez Czyz – Czyz certainly seemed more comfortable in the dunk contest than the scrimmage, putting on a show that included a through-the-legs dunk off a bounce pass to himself.  Quick tangent – remember when J.R. Rider did the between-the-legs dunk and everyone went nuts?  Now it seems like every decent high school dunk contest has guys pulling that move off.  Back to Czyz – I’m happy he had a nice moment as co-winner of the dunk-off and he brings a very positive energy and enthusiasm to the team.  He didn’t appear to be showing any effects of offseason knee surgery.  He can run the court and he even nailed a three in the Blue-White Game, but his limitations on defense and in the half-court offense will make it tough for him to crack the frontcourt rotation this season.

 Jordan Davidson, Steve Johnson, Casey Peters – This trio played limited minutes in the scrimmage (18 total), with manager-turned-player Peters garnering the most action (11 minutes).  Peters, a 6’4” junior, was pretty impressive in his first action in a Duke uniform, getting out in transition and scoring four points on 2-5 shooting.  He seems to have decent handles and quickness and could hold his own on defense if the backcourt experiences any injuries or foul trouble.  Another quick fact on Casey – he scored a perfect 800 on the math portion of the SAT…I can almost hear Dickie V now, “I scored 800 on the math section too – 200 my first time, 200 my second….”  Davidson, who was a medical redshirt last season with a back injury, is back on the court as a graduate student.  He’s a solid ball-handler, shooter and defender and – like Peters – probably wouldn’t hurt the team if he were forced into action in a competitive game.  The 6’5” Johnson is a good athlete and has a nice shooting touch (though his deliberate stroke requires him to be wide open to get off a shot).  He’s another guy that seems to have a great attitude and understand his role in practice and on game day.

by: Swiss Keegs